Not clouds

[Mad Machinist]

The Tesla Powerwall is rated at 13.5 kWh at nearly $7000. I can get 100.8 kWh from a 2100 amp hour 48v forklift battery. And that I'd from a lead-acid battery. Still looking up the specs on the new lithium ion forklift batteries.

 

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[Mad Machinist]

And I forgot the fact that the forklift battery costs LESS that the Tesla brand new.

 

[deducer]

I think most people feel as I do:

We should all be good stewards of our environment. We should all do our best not to pollute or trash our world. Global Climate Change happens. EVERY model predicting everything from Global Cooling(70's), to Global Warming(90's), to Global Climate Change(current) has been gloriously and ginormously wrong. Global Climate Change has been going on since the beginning of time. It is wholly unpredictable and not affected to any real extent by human occupation.

Mike

Ice cores drilled from deep in the Antarctica ice sheet tell a very different story. Levels of carbon trapped in the ice have spiked in the last 100 years as opposed to the last 800,000 plus years.

 

[PotBelly Jim]

Ice cores drilled from deep in the Antarctica ice sheet tell a very different story. Levels of carbon trapped in the ice have spiked in the last 100 years as opposed to the last 800,000 plus years.

True. We have an excess of ~100ppmv of CO2 in our atmosphere (looks bad on a graph, but let’s define this in real terms as about 0.01% change) than we have ever had in human history, or even for millions of years. While CO2 has been demonstrated in laboratory conditions to be a greenhouse gas, (a closed environment with CO2 will warm and stay warm when struck by sunlight, as opposed to a vacuum) there is no way to accurately model our atmosphere using math. We always think we can get close, but when we try, the result is invariably proven wrong over time.

What this means in real terms is that CO2 is likely a contributor to the greenhouse effect in our atmosphere. Check, we all know that. What we can't predict is the real effects of that CO2 when combined with the chaos of our atmosphere, as opposed to a lab or even in a carefully prepared series of mathematical models. The real effects would be things like icecap melting, ocean warming and level rise, rises in air temp on land, etc. This is why the predictions have proven "ginormously wrong" as Mike put it.

The alarmists are alarmed because scientists are alarmed. Scientists are always alarmed when they are in uncharted territory. We are in uncharted territory in regards to having a 0.01% excess of CO2 in our atmosphere. What this means for the planet can be educationally guessed at, but any scientist that says he knows what's going to happen is either delusional, or way better than even Einstein.

CO2 does seem to be associated with temperature changes on our planet, and these levels have been found in ice cores as Deducer points out. The sticky part is sometimes the CO2 levels increase before temp change, sometimes after. As far as I know, I've not seen an explanation for that that makes sense, but it may be out there somewhere. There's a whole bunch of unknowns like this.

But, the clear trend of the data makes a pretty strong correlation between human CO2 emissions and increase of same in our atmosphere. Sure looks like we are probably the cause of all or most of it. If this turns out to be the case, we might be on track to see levels of ~1000-1500ppmv (about 0.10 -0.15% increase) of CO2 in our atmosphere before we can get a handle on it through technological innovation. This sounds pretty bad, and it might actually turn out to be pretty bad. But nobody really knows.

In the meantime, it makes sense (at least to me) to start that process...of getting a handle on it. Lots of people all over the world are working on it. As Mike again points out, it’s a real chore to have to listen to both sides propagandize…that’s what I meant when I said both sides “suck”.

 

[Mad Machinist]

deducer,

I see you haven't put up a smartass comment to what I posted with the study I posted or the cost of the Tesla.

So let me te you this, this is a fight you cannot win. I've been dealing with photovoltics for the past 15 years. I know ALL the ins and outs and their limitations. The problem with solar isn't the panels themselves but with the batteries. Even lithium ion cannot handle a short term high rate discharge right now. Hell even my cordless tools get hot and shut down under a high load
So what would happen if a blast furnace was hooked up to solar or wind power?

 

[Oroblanco]

What does all this have to do with the wildfire burning in the Superstitions?

I am guilty of going off-topic a bit, and still think they (Feds) should not have driven out the livestock being run there by local ranchers, the livestock kept the grasses, weeds and brush chewed down pretty well and made for much easier and safer hiking. It was a bit more nuisance to have to protect your camp, and I have had my camp really destroyed by cows twice, you can't believe how much damage a few cows can do in a short time. But it was far better than having these wildfires rage out of control burning up huge areas that will take years to recover and actually damages the soil from the heat.

Any updates on the progress of this fire? Thanks in advance.

 

[azdave35]

What does all this have to do with the wildfire burning in the Superstitions?

I am guilty of going off-topic a bit, and still think they (Feds) should not have driven out the livestock being run there by local ranchers, the livestock kept the grasses, weeds and brush chewed down pretty well and made for much easier and safer hiking. It was a bit more nuisance to have to protect your camp, and I have had my camp really destroyed by cows twice, you can't believe how much damage a few cows can do in a short time. But it was far better than having these wildfires rage out of control burning up huge areas that will take years to recover and actually damages the soil from the heat.

Any updates on the progress of this fire? Thanks in advance.

roy..the fire is about 68% contained...it is pretty much burning inward and not spreading out...the residents of roosevelt are back home..things are looking up

 

[PotBelly Jim]

What does all this have to do with the wildfire burning in the Superstitions?

I am guilty of going off-topic a bit, and still think they (Feds) should not have driven out the livestock being run there by local ranchers, the livestock kept the grasses, weeds and brush chewed down pretty well and made for much easier and safer hiking. It was a bit more nuisance to have to protect your camp, and I have had my camp really destroyed by cows twice, you can't believe how much damage a few cows can do in a short time. But it was far better than having these wildfires rage out of control burning up huge areas that will take years to recover and actually damages the soil from the heat.

Any updates on the progress of this fire? Thanks in advance.

I can't figure it out either. Just seems like people are interested in it and want to discuss it.

About 124k acres, 68% percent contained...they didn't update us with a fire progression map today, here's the map from 27 JUN:



Looks like the estimate of the first part of July for the fire to be contained was about right.

EDIT: Sorry for the "double-tap" Dave, didn't see your post until after

 

[Oroblanco]

Thanks guys - it will still be quite a while before the Feds will let the public back in that area though. I heard it will be at least the end of September, have not been able to get that confirmed though.

 

[azdave35]

Thanks guys - it will still be quite a while before the Feds will let the public back in that area though. I heard it will be at least the end of September, have not been able to get that confirmed though.

roy...thats ok..it will still be blazing hot around here til the end of october....too hot to hike up there anyway

 

[somehiker]

The conversation has not, in this case, gone off topic in that there have been attempts to dissuade some of us from daring to suggest that large fires like the "woodbury" can be the result of sometimes poor "hands off" decisions made by government officials . Since this is one that affects all of us who are interested in and spend a fair amount of time out in the areas impacted by that particular fire, it's only natural that we have included our related thoughts within the topic.
All in all, it's been a pretty civil exchange of ideas IMO.

 

[somehiker]

Thanks guys - it will still be quite a while before the Feds will let the public back in that area though. I heard it will be at least the end of September, have not been able to get that confirmed though.

If the TNF does in fact keep the road closed until then, I'm sure the Ross family, owner/operators of Tortilla Flat will suffer for it.
The Canyon Lake Marina as well, although one page of the Marina website said the road had been reopened last week.

 

[deducer]

deducer,

I see you haven't put up a smartass comment to what I posted with the study I posted or the cost of the Tesla.

So let me te you this, this is a fight you cannot win. I've been dealing with photovoltics for the past 15 years. I know ALL the ins and outs and their limitations. The problem with solar isn't the panels themselves but with the batteries. Even lithium ion cannot handle a short term high rate discharge right now. Hell even my cordless tools get hot and shut down under a high load
So what would happen if a blast furnace was hooked up to solar or wind power?

As I mentioned to Mike (Gollum) you are assuming that battery technology will not evolve but remain static. This is not true.

The share of the battery market that remains lead and acid is shrinking, furthermore new technology is being developed, and now that it's backed by VC funding, is gaining serious momentum. The latest development is silicon plating batteries which is a lot less toxic. There's also something called the "Jesus Battery" which is cutting edge technology in that it is solid state polymer. Yes you read that right, polymer, as in plastic. I think we're going to move towards that- towards using silicon in anodes rather than graphite. There's also nanowiring technology which will not only substantially extend battery life, but withstand hundreds of thousands of charges without weakening. There's also the foam battery- I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

And as far as Elon Musk, I am no fan of his hubris or attempt to corner the EV market or to retain proprietorship on his Teslas by refusing to sell spare parts, diagnostic tools and even repair manuals, not just for his EV, but his house products. This puts him in the "big boys" category.

However he did give EV and battery technology a big shot in the arm with his PT Barnum style- and not only made the other big auto companies see the potential of this market, but forced them to become major players.

Once they catch up, I expect Tesla to become obsolete or a fringe player.

 

[deducer]

The conversation has not, in this case, gone off topic in that there have been attempts to dissuade some of us from daring to suggest that large fires like the "woodbury" can be the result of sometimes poor "hands off" decisions made by government officials . Since this is one that affects all of us who are interested in and spend a fair amount of time out in the areas impacted by that particular fire, it's only natural that we have included our related thoughts within the topic.
All in all, it's been a pretty civil exchange of ideas IMO.

I am surprised that it has remained civil for so long and that the mods haven't stepped in to crack down.

Now that I've gone and said that, I've probably jinxed this thread.

 

[sdcfia]

As I mentioned to Mike (Gollum) you are assuming that battery technology will not evolve but remain static. This is not true.

The share of the battery market that remains lead and acid is shrinking, furthermore new technology is being developed, and now that it's backed by VC funding, is gaining serious momentum. The latest development is silicon plating batteries which is a lot less toxic. There's also something called the "Jesus Battery" which is cutting edge technology in that it is solid state polymer. Yes you read that right, polymer, as in plastic. I think we're going to move towards that- towards using silicon in anodes rather than graphite. There's also nanowiring technology which will not only substantially extend battery life, but withstand hundreds of thousands of charges without weakening. There's also the foam battery- I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

And as far as Elon Musk, I am no fan of his hubris or attempt to corner the EV market or to retain proprietorship on his Teslas by refusing to sell spare parts, diagnostic tools and even repair manuals, not just for his EV, but his house products. This puts him in the "big boys" category.

However he did give EV and battery technology a big shot in the arm with his PT Barnum style- and not only made the other big auto companies see the potential of this market, but forced them to become major players.

Once they catch up, I expect Tesla to become obsolete or a fringe player.

Looks like the Chinese government intends all other EV manufacturers except their own to become fringe players. 70% of the world market in two more years. Better draw up some more tariffs. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-not-tesla-will-drive-the-electric-car-revolution-2019-05-14

 

[deducer]

Looks like the Chinese government intends all other EV manufacturers except their own to become fringe players. 70% of the world market in two more years. Better draw up some more tariffs. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-not-tesla-will-drive-the-electric-car-revolution-2019-05-14

Not surprised. They haven't been in a war since 1979 and have put their money in all the right places. Since that time we've spent $14 trillion on being the "world's policeman" and getting pretty mired in the Middle East fighting in three countries, soon to be four. Doesn't leave much money for science and technology, does it?

 

[Mad Machinist]

The conversation has not, in this case, gone off topic in that there have been attempts to dissuade some of us from daring to suggest that large fires like the "woodbury" can be the result of sometimes poor "hands off" decisions made by government officials . Since this is one that affects all of us who are interested in and spend a fair amount of time out in the areas impacted by that particular fire, it's only natural that we have included our related thoughts within the topic.
All in all, it's been a pretty civil exchange of ideas IMO.

I actually kinda like deducer. His head may not be in the right place but his heart is. This all ties together in so many ways it's no longer funny.

The problem with wilderness areas is the fact that they are basically hands off when it comes to management. I've been all over the Superstitions. I love that area. Lots of little books and crannies to explore. But I've said it before and I will say it again, a wilderness designation is a death sentence to an area and all the wildlife in that area. Its only a matter of time.

I dont live far from the Blue Range Primitive Area here in Arizona. And that place needs some VERY SERIOUS intervention. Sure it looks great from the few roads that are there, but once you get back in a little ways from the road, dead and fallen trees are stacked up like cordwood. It's only a matter of time before it burns too. Of course then the stupid people who caused this to happen will start clamoring for more wilderness areas so they have some place else to destroy.

 

[Mad Machinist]

As I mentioned to Mike (Gollum) you are assuming that battery technology will not evolve but remain static. This is not true.

The share of the battery market that remains lead and acid is shrinking, furthermore new technology is being developed, and now that it's backed by VC funding, is gaining serious momentum. The latest development is silicon plating batteries which is a lot less toxic. There's also something called the "Jesus Battery" which is cutting edge technology in that it is solid state polymer. Yes you read that right, polymer, as in plastic. I think we're going to move towards that- towards using silicon in anodes rather than graphite. There's also nanowiring technology which will not only substantially extend battery life, but withstand hundreds of thousands of charges without weakening. There's also the foam battery- I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

And as far as Elon Musk, I am no fan of his hubris or attempt to corner the EV market or to retain proprietorship on his Teslas by refusing to sell spare parts, diagnostic tools and even repair manuals, not just for his EV, but his house products. This puts him in the "big boys" category.

However he did give EV and battery technology a big shot in the arm with his PT Barnum style- and not only made the other big auto companies see the potential of this market, but forced them to become major players.

Once they catch up, I expect Tesla to become obsolete or a fringe player.

Yea I know about the cutting edge technology on batteries. Been following it for years. My hunting camp is about 60 miles from the nearest powerline. Not much of a choice if you want power there. Gotta love Arizona, still lots of remote places to get away from the hustle and bustle of life.

I'll be replacing the 7kw solar array I have there soon enough. I really do hope the battery tech catches up by then. The lead acid batteries are serving their purpose and will continue to do so for quite some time but it really would be nice to not have to start the Miller Air Pak when I have to fix something there.

 

[Mad Machinist]

Anyways, after the week I have had (60+hours) imma drink some beer and work on my deck over trailer
I realize it only 11 o clock and a little early to drink beer but I really don' t care. Lol

 

[vastterrain]