Undeniable proof that gun control works

[0121stockpicker]

How can anyone argue with the fact that NYC under the dreaded gun hating mayor bloomberg has seen its homicide rate drop to 40 year LOWS!!

And as a special bonus for my CHICAGO COP friends there is a nice description of the gender and racial make up of the new crop of cops at the bottom of the article. Boy I still cant believe someone posted that crap this morning?? So given the almost completely white male police force of decades ago I guess the addition of all these women and minorities are raising the standards of the NYC police force?? And some are even dare I say immigrants - oh my goodness run for the hills!!

New York City's homicide rate hits 40-year lowNew York City saw 414 murders in 2012, the lowest homicide level in the city in 40 years.

New York City has something to celebrate as 2012 comes to a close: the city's lowest murder rate in 40 years.

New York had 414 murders so far this year, compared to 2011's 515 homicides, according to city officials. It also is lower than the previous record, 2009's 417 murders, the New York Times reported.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced the numbers as the NYPD’s new class of recruits were sworn in at a ceremony on Friday.

“The essence of civilization is that you can walk down the street without having to look over your shoulder,” Mayor Bloomberg said in a speech. "“We stop at nothing to try to keep everybody safe in this city and we will continue to do that," he added, according to CBS News.

The city did see a slight uptick in general crime, however, due almost exclusively to robberies of iPhones and other Apple devices, according to the New York Times.

The Times noted that though the numbers were down, many of the year's murders "stood out as particularly disturbing."

The stabbing of the two young Krim children at the hands of their nanny at their Manhattan apartment in October was cited as one of the "most horrific detectives could recall."

“I think those images get embedded in the minds of detectives more than other crime scenes,” Michael Palladino, president of the Detectives’ Endowment Association, told the Times. “It certainly makes you rethink the things that you take for granted, which is the safety of children.”

However, 2012's low murder rate is in stark contrast to the New York City of the 1990s, which had a record 2,245 murders in 1990, according to the Associated Press.

Bloomberg credited the decrease to the NYPD's increase use of the controversial "stop and frisk" tactic, which allows officers to question and pat down people who are exhibiting suspicious behavior but are not committing any crime, CBS News explains.

Stop-and-frisk stops have let to the seizure of around 8,000 weapons a year, including 800 illegal guns, Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly told the AP.

The newest class of New York police officers is 84 percent male and 16 percent female; 53 percent white, 25 percent Hispanic, 12 percent black, 9 percent Asian, and one percent of other races, according to CBS News. The force is also made up of officers from 46 different countries; one in five new police officers immigrated to the US, CBS reported.
New York City's homicide rate hits 40-year low | GlobalPost

 

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[onfire]

Funny how you can down other peoples statistics but yours we can all believe I don't put stock in it.

Again I say according to you seizure is control.

 

[The Punisher]

I think its because ammo is harder to get....

 

[0121stockpicker]

Funny how you can down other peoples statistics but yours we can all believe I don't put stock in it.

Again I say according to you seizure is control.

No one is coming to take for guns my friend. No banning and no confiscation. No one besides the NRA and big gun saying that. Again, your guns are safe - no one is coming for them.

 

[Backbacon]

I think its because ammo is harder to get....

Yeah... it's a real shame more people didn't get shot.

 

[0121stockpicker]

Funny how you can down other peoples statistics but yours we can all believe I don't put stock in it.

Again I say according to you seizure is control.

And onfire, how do you account for the 40 year low yet the incredibly diverse police force??

 

[Treasure_Hunter]

Since the gun ban in DC was overturned by the Supreme Court, murders have dropped by over 34%...........Chicago hasn't been as lucky because the process to get a permit is a lot more expensive and lengthy...

 

[0121stockpicker]

Since the gun ban in DC was overturned by the Supreme Court, murders have dropped by over 34%...........Chicago hasn't been as lucky because the process to get a permit is a lot more expensive and lengthy...

And how about NYC??

 

[XLTer]

City Officials Say .........

What did you think they would say ? LOL !



Wait for the FBI unbiased Stats to come out if you want honest ones .

 

[0121stockpicker]

A great example of how anyone can play the "proof" game. Works on both sides as you can see. In logic / debate these posts are what we call cherry picking. It's worth becoming familiar with tactics like cherry picking so you are less likely to be deceived

From Wikipedia

Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias. Cherry picking may be committed unintentionally.[1]

The term is based on the perceived process of harvesting fruit, such as cherries. The picker would be expected to only select the ripest and healthiest fruits. An observer who only sees the selected fruit may thus wrongly conclude that most, or even all, of the fruit is in such good condition.

Cherry picking can be found in many logical fallacies. For example, the "fallacy of anecdotal evidence" tends to overlook large amounts of data in favor of that known personally, "selective use of evidence" rejects material unfavorable to an argument, while a false dichotomy picks only two options when more are available.

 

[Treasure_Hunter]

And how about NYC??

"Although the homicide rate continues to drop—it's down 16 percent so far this year—a series of other crime indicators shows the opposite. First, there's the citywide crime rate, which is based on seven felony categories: murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny, and auto theft.

That number is up by just more than 4 percent compared with 2011, and it's up more than 5 percent compared to 2010, which suggests the upward trend has held steady for two years. Crime is also up in each of the five boroughs, which means the rise is not isolated to one particular area.

Five of those seven major crime categories show increases. And though shootings show a modest 3 percent increase citywide, the percentages are higher in Manhattan, Queens, North Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Staten Island."
For the First Time in 20 Years, New York's Crime Rate Is on the Rise - Page 1 - News - New York - Village Voice

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I think it has more to do with the methods used than with the gun control. Police are approaching it from a whole new angle and it seems to be working...



A Focus on Hot Spots
Researchers suggested: Perhaps the authorities should pay less attention to individual criminals and more attention to the hot spots where they operate.
Dr. Sherman, Dr. Weisburd and colleagues have tested the idea in randomized experiments in Jersey City; Houston; Kansas City, Mo.; Minneapolis; Philadelphia; Sacramento; and cities in Britain and Australia.

Typically, a list of hot spots was identified, and then half were randomly chosen to receive extra police attention, like more frequent patrols. Other strategies were also used, like improving street lighting, fencing vacant lots or arresting people for minor violations.

As hoped, there were fewer crimes and complaints at the hot spots chosen for extra attention than at those that were not. And once police officers started to show up often and at unpredictable intervals, they did not need to stay more than 15 minutes to have a lasting impact.

Nonetheless, the hot-spot strategy was initially met with skepticism by police veterans.

“We assumed that if we hit one area hard, the crime would just move somewhere else,” said Frank Gajewski, a former police chief of Jersey City, who worked with Dr. Weisburd on the experiments there.
But Dr. Weisburd won over Mr. Gajewski and other skeptics — and also won the 2010 Stockholm Prize, criminology’s version of the Nobel — by showing that crime was not simply being displaced. Moreover, he and his colleagues reported a “spatial diffusion of crime prevention benefits” because crime also declined in adjoining areas, as the police in Jersey City had observed.

“Crime doesn’t move as easily we thought it did,” Mr. Gajewski said. “If I’m a robber, I want to be in a familiar, easily accessible place with certain characteristics. I need targets to rob, but I don’t want people in the neighborhood watching me or challenging me. Maybe I work near a bus stop where there are vacant buildings or empty lots. If the police start focusing there, I can’t just move to the next block and find the same conditions.”

After more than two dozen experiments around the world, criminologists generally agree that hot-spot policing is “an effective crime prevention strategy,” in the words of Anthony Braga, a criminologist at Harvard and Rutgers who led a review of the research literature last year.

Many experts also see it as the best explanation for the crime drop in New York. Although the city’s police did not participate in randomized experiments, they did use computerized crime mapping to focus on hot spots in the 1990s. This strategy was intensified with a program called Operation Impact, which was started in 2003 by Raymond W. Kelly, then and now the police commissioner.
Commissioner Kelly gives the strategy credit for the continued decline of crime despite the reduced police force.

There is supporting evidence from Dennis C. Smith, a political scientist at New York University who led an analysis of trends in the dozens of precincts where the city’s police focus on “impact zones,” as the hot spots are called. Rates of murder, rape, grand larceny, robbery and assault declined significantly faster in precincts with hot-spot policing than in those without it.

The Stop-and-Frisk Debate

One part of the hot-spot strategy in New York has been highly controversial: the stopping and frisking of hundreds of thousands of people each year, ostensibly to search for weapons or other contraband.

Some critics say that the tactic has been used so often and so brusquely in New York that it has undermined policing by arousing disrespect for the law, especially among young black and Latino men, who are disproportionately stopped and searched. Research shows that people who feel treated unfairly by the police can become more likely to commit crimes in the future.

“The million-dollar question in policing right now is whether there are ways to get the benefits of stop-and-frisk without the collateral costs,” said Jens Ludwig, an economist who directs the University of Chicago Crime Lab. He found benefits from the tactic — a decline in gunshot injuries — in an experiment with the Pittsburgh police.

“Getting the police to stop people more often and search them for illegal guns does help keep guns off the street and reduce gun violence,” Dr. Ludwig said. “That’s not to say whether or not stop-and-frisk is worth the costs that the practice imposes on society. But there’s a complicated trade-off here that needs to be acknowledged.”

Defenders of stop-and-frisk, including Mayor Bloomberg, argue that when it is done properly and politely, the practice prevents crimes that disproportionately hurt the city’s minorities.
“If New York went back to the policing of the 1980s,” Dr. Smith said, “there would be hundreds of thousands more victims of serious crimes every year, and the great majority of them would be African-American and Hispanic.”

Police officials note that if the homicide rate of the 1980s persisted, 1,200 additional New Yorkers, most of them black or Latino men, would have been killed last year — when the police recorded 417 murders. Further, if the city’s incarceration rate had followed the national trend, an additional 100,000 black and Hispanic men would have been sent to prison in the past decade, Dr. Zimring calculates.
Whether or not other cities adopt New York’s specific stop-and-frisk tactics, social scientists say the rest of the country could benefit by adding police officers and concentrating on hot spots.

Dr. Ludwig and Philip J. Cook, a Duke University economist, calculate that nationwide, money diverted from prison to policing would buy at least four times as much reduction in crime. They suggest shrinking the prison population by a quarter and using the savings to hire another 100,000 police officers.

Diverting that money to the police would be tricky politically, because corrections budgets are zealously defended in state capitals by prison administrators, unions and legislators.

But there is at least one prison administrator, Dr. Jacobson, the former correction commissioner in New York, who would send the money elsewhere.

“If you had a dollar to spend on reducing crime, and you looked at the science instead of the politics, you would never spend it on the prison system,” Dr. Jacobson said. “There is no better example of big government run amok.”

That is the same lesson that William J. Bratton draws from his experience as New York’s police commissioner in the 1990s. “We showed in New York that the future of policing is not in handcuffs,” Mr. Bratton said. “The United States has locked up so many people that it has the highest incarceration rate in the world, but we can’t arrest and incarcerate our way out of crime. We need to focus on preventing crime instead of responding to it.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/n...-to-cut-crime-in-new-york.html?pagewanted=all

 

[Sackett]

yeah it worked so well that Ole Bloomburg now went for your large soft drinks!!!!!!!!!!he is a joke

 

[0121stockpicker]

yeah it worked so well that Ole Bloomburg now went for your large soft drinks!!!!!!!!!!he is a joke

And this has what to do with the success of gun control??

 

[0121stockpicker]

yeah it worked so well that Ole Bloomburg now went for your large soft drinks!!!!!!!!!!he is a joke

So did you just prove that banning large soft drink cuts down significantly on homicide?

 

[wingmaster]

I know Indianapolis police force have lied in the past about crime rates to make the department and the party in office look good and I'm sure they aren't the only state to do so. If your not armed to protect yourself then a group of people can take or do to you what they want, if a group of say 20 people come up to you to do harm I don't care how bad you think you are its not the movies. They don't take turns like they do for Steven Seagal either they jump you all at once in real life, you could then call the police, if your still alive that is.

And onfire, how do you account for the 40 year low yet the incredibly diverse police force??

 

[0121stockpicker]

Guys you completely missed the point of the post.

 

[ywevis]

It has now been over 10 years since gun owners in Australia were forced by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by their own Government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars.

The statistics for the years following the ban are now in:

1. Accidental gun deaths are 300% higher than the pre-1997 ban rate
2. The assault rate has increased 800% since 1991, and increased 200% since the 1997 gun ban.
3. Robbery and armed robbery have increase 20% from the pre-97 ban rate.
4. From immediately after the ban was instituted in 1997 through 2002, the robbery and armed robbery rate was up 200% over the pre-ban rates.
5. In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 171 percent.

Learn more at Reason or Force: Australian Gun Ban Facts & Statistics

Australia's Gun Ban NOT Working So Well | Military.com

 

[0121stockpicker]

It has now been over 10 years since gun owners in Australia were forced by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by their own Government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars.

The statistics for the years following the ban are now in:

1. Accidental gun deaths are 300% higher than the pre-1997 ban rate
2. The assault rate has increased 800% since 1991, and increased 200% since the 1997 gun ban.
3. Robbery and armed robbery have increase 20% from the pre-97 ban rate.
4. From immediately after the ban was instituted in 1997 through 2002, the robbery and armed robbery rate was up 200% over the pre-ban rates.
5. In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 171 percent.

Learn more at Reason or Force: Australian Gun Ban Facts & Statistics

Australia's Gun Ban NOT Working So Well | Military.com

What does this have to do with New York?

 

[diggummup]

All I hear is... blah, blah... blah, blah, blah. New York city is a joke. Statistics are for politicians.

I think it has more to do with the methods used than with the gun control. Police are approaching it from a whole new angle and it seems to be working

Compstat and the Broken Windows theory are 2 of those approaches. Not to mention the crack epidemic of the mid 80's early 90's was the biggest contributing factor of the high murder rates in the city for many of those years.
So Bloomberg can boast all he wants and continue to do illegal search and seizures on minorities walking down the street that "look suspicious" with his unconstitutional stop and frisk policy. The "lower" murder rates are not just NYC, it's nationwide and it has nothing to do with gun control. As a matter of fact crime in the entire U.S. has declined steeply since the 90's. Maybe it has something to do with the massive amount of police that have been hired since then, or the declined popularity of crack cocaine, or the record number of those incarcerated, or the aging population or all of those and more. You can't judge anything from a statistic unless you look at all the statistics involved, pro and con. Even then take it with a grain of salt. Screw NYC and Bloomberg.

 

[diggummup]

What does this have to do with New York?

Statistics man!