See, I don't have any dogs in the hunt. I don't profit from the book sales. I don't personally know any of the Noss Family. I do know a few of the people involved with the ONFP, and the two writers that I feel have written the best versions of the story to date (Tom Whittle and John Clarence [pen name]).
That said, I couldn't disagree with your timeline more. Your timeline shows a profound ignorance of the facts. Douthit's (and possibly Ward's) Cave of gold bars was found in 1928 (not the "early 1930s" as you post). I highly doubt it would have taken Doc 9 years to find a suitable set of caves to "stage" any swindle. Doc knew those mountains very well. If you honestly think Doc dragged 200 fifty pound bars from the Caballos to VP, then dragged them down a couple of hundred feet into a small crevice, just to haul them all back out again, to stage a swindle, your theory doesn't make sense. Although Doc found the caves under VP in 1937, he didn't bring out the first bar until two years later (1939). Doc never made any attempts to get "investors" until much later (after he had left Ova). Before that, he had just sold a lot of gold bars (actual gold bars witnessed by several people). After SE Montgomery blasted the cave upper entrance shut in 1939, why did he continue to dig there for several years trying to get access? Not the actions of a scam. Your timeline leaves a LOT of documented facts out that would put your theory in a bad light.
And the US Government/Military would not have to stage any fake Spanish Gold Discovery in VP. If they had Nazi Gold, they would have just taken it straight from Germany to Switzerland (where a good chunk of this gold went). It would not have had to be deposited in a system of caves under VP, then pretend to be found. Very simple "NATIONAL SECURITY" declared, then encompass all the land into an adjoining military installation....... oh yeah. They did that.
For someone that didn't have a lot of knowledge about the story, your theory looks like it could be possible. Its unfortunate that in order to get a real feel for what happened, a person has to follow a very long and convoluted trail of evidence, lies, observations, documents, and hearsay. You then have to separate the wheat from the chaff (so to speak). Take from all of that what you will and base your personal opinions on that. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT THIS STORY THAT IS LINEAR. NOTHING THAT TAKES YOU DIRECTLY FROM "A" TO "B" TO "C" TO "D". Everything jumps back and forth then you have to inject some numbers and cryptic symbols, and the whole thing gets jumbled up along the way.
SDCFIA is correct in that if much of anything could be proven 100%, this would never be such a big issue on internet forums like this one, and the fact that nothing remains under VP today means that this subject will continue to be a source of theories and conjecture for many more years to come.
There are several people that personally saw and had many of the gold bars Doc brought out of VP. NOT ONE has ever said any of the bars had any markings on them. Nazi Gold from the Reichsbank was marked with the synbol of the NSDAP:
View attachment 1114132
Most of the gold bars from VP looked like this:
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What you see here is a dore bar worth a tad shy of $300,000. It is from Southern New Mexico. That is all I can say about it at this point in time. Enjoy!
Mike