Silver Prices Falling In The Asian Market

[mts]

I'm not sure where the bottom is, but I'm inclined to wait until things level out again before pulling the trigger on buying more silver. I don't think it is wise to try and time this thing. You may get lucky, you may not. And knowing my luck, I'd buy at $35 and it would continue to plummet to $25.

If you look at the previous run-up it is pretty clear that low 30's and even high 20's are not out of the question. Of course, 50's aren't out of the question either. In other words, I have no idea.

One thing I do know is that I will be watching very closely and will not be surprised at what I see.

 

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[Mackaydon]

Down another dollar in the last couple of hours: Freefall??
My local dealer is set to buy in heavily at $19 and ride this roller coaster back up.
Scary thought.

 

[mts]

Down another dollar in the last couple of hours: Freefall??
My local dealer is set to buy in heavily at $19 and ride this roller coaster back up.
Scary thought.

What is more surprising to me is that gold has dropped $30 in the past couple of hours. That's quite a drop for gold. It's not as surprising for silver because it just went up about 30% in one month. But gold has been holding pretty steady for months now. I think we have a way to go on this drop and it looks like gold could potentially be affected too.

 

[TheRandyMan]

Silver helped to push Gold so its no surprise that gold is being drug down a bit by silver. My opinion is that once the powers that be on the COMEX have driven out most of the longs, those who were long silver from the $28 to $32 range in January right around the time silver rocketed, they will have made enough of their money back and silver will stabilize and make a base trading range . Once the hedge funds see this leveling off, their algorithms will tell them to start adding long positions again. When that happens, silver will take off again.

Volatility will be the name of the game for awhile...but the long term trend is up.

I will be looking for the base channel and will buy accordingly.

 

[jim4silver]

It would seem to me that gold might fall the same percentage that it has risen, just like silver will do until it forms a bottom. Thus, gold could fall to 1200 and silver 18, which is where they both were in August 2010. I don't think either will get that low unless there are no new world incidences (large terrorist attack type things) AND more importantly gold and silver all of the sudden become the ba$tard stepchildren of the investment world for the near future.

When silver fell in 2008 it lost over 50% (21 to 9 or so). IF that were to happen now 25 would be the target price, but as we see silver often overshoots, both upward and downward. I was planning on initiating new silver positions at 35, but might lower that number a bit if it keeps dropping. I already have a decent stash of PMs (relative to my net worth) so I am in no hurry to back up the truck.

Funny what difference a week makes. Last week the financial talking heads (on the TV financial stations) were saying how silver is the best thing in the world and everyone should buy at least 10%, today I am hearing some of them say they would not buy silver again until it is under 20.

What always happens in PMs and some stock bull markets is that some people sit on the sideline not buying as they watch it go up up up. Finally they decide they don't want to miss the train and buy in at record high levels. Then the price drops a bunch and the sell at a loss and complain about how bad PMs are as an investment/hedge. They then wait and next time it shoots up buy again high and sell at a loss again, etc.

I spoke today to a coin dealer friend who said more people are selling to him now than last week (when it was 48+). He says he feels 30 would be a good buy point if it gets that low.

Jim

 

[47thelement]

This is just an adjustment back to reality. The housing market did it now it's time for Ag to realize 48 is just too high for the common good. I myself am looking forward to $20/oz again.

 

[jim4silver]

The only thing I am "sure" about is that silver is not going to consolidate at this level. In other words, it is going to keep sinking or shoot back up.

I think what many lose sight of in this is that the largest percentage of buying and selling going on in silver right now is done at the "institutional" levels. By that I mean hedge funds, large financial institutions, billionaires possibly?, etc. It is not being done by people like us on here going and buying ounces at the coin store. Or I should say what is influencing price is done by these "biggies".

Such biggie traders are in this game for the profits, not because they think silver and gold are necessarily "real money" and better than cash. The big players might be putting some of their profits into physical, but the real big money game being played is in the paper market, where they can leverage profits by controlling thousands of ounces of silver in futures contracts. Although many here think the dollar is now or soon to be worthless, it still buys alot of cool stuff if you have enough of it, it even buys physical gold and silver if that is what you want. I don't fault the "biggies" for making profits that way. In a sense we should be grateful for what they do because it allows us to buy a commodity for a price that many here feel is undervalued. If silver really was "worth" 100 bucks an ounce and that is what was required to buy it, how many here would rush to the coin store and pay that right now? Probably not many. But if these guys drag down silver via futures to the 20s and we can go out and buy it at that range, it is really doing us a favor now. Someday I believe that he physical market will "split" from the paper market and your physical will be worth a lot more than paper silver. Till then enjoy the alleged "artificially low" prices we are seeing and stock up on physical.

The reason I am pointing this out is because these "biggies" might decide to run silver back up to 50 or 60 or higher, then drop it down and short it or maybe let it keep going up. As long as they are making big profits they don't care one way or the other. Thus, there is really no way to predict which way silver is going. But since most of us want to own it to protect ourselves in the future, as long as we are holding physical it is OK if it drops, or if it goes up.

Sometimes it is easier than other times to see where silver is going, such as it was when it ramped up to 50 this past week. But usually it is not easy to spot. If volatility ensues, I believe we will see some crazy $h*t between now and Christmas. If I can load up on some silver in the 20s I will be happy with that.

All above is my opinion and might be completely wrong.

Jim

 

[TheRandyMan]

All below is my opinion and might be completely wrong.



Right now, I am hearing anecdotal reports on the web about the physical silver buyers starting to get active and buying silver at prices they only dreamed of...even just a week ago. $35 an ounce...sounded mighty good when the paper market was at $45 to $48 per ounce. Many here are dreaming of $20 per ounce...some really strange people are even throwing $5 an ounce around . Don't ask me what exactly they are smoking because some of them are moderators and I don't want to get into trouble...

But...my friends...let us return to the days of yesteryear...the many, many long ago days of last fall when silver was bouncing around $15, $16, $17 big paper dollars an ounce. What started the slow climb to January of 2011? Then again...what ignited the silver rocket that drove silver from January to April and nearly $50 per ounce??

The answer is...F U N D A M E N T A L S.

The fundamentals of US debt and monetary policy (14.3 Trillion + Quantatative Easing + unfunded liabilities of some ungodly amount like 180 Trillion or more). To a lesser degree, the fundamentals of supply and demand. When you see world government central banks buying huge amounts of gold as well as billionaires and huge pension funds (University of Texas almost 1 billion of physical gold purchased recently) understand that if they wanted to buy PAPER gold and silver...they could...but they do not want it. Why? Because they know that the world is awash in paper money and they want a hedge against that paper being devalued at the least...at the worst, they want to be protected against a dollar that may go into free fall.

Have these F U N D A M E N T A L S changed?

No...they have not.

We are sitting in the calm before the storm...we are inside of a bubble of normalcy...a world where the "normal" manipulations of the markets by the powers that be continue as they have for many years...even in the face of the fundamentals that are building. At some point they will not be able to stare the fundamentals in the face with impunity. They will bow before them as to the greater power.

But for now...We have a failure to communicate... and all looks normal. Physical silver buyers once again will have an opportunity to buy at levels they wondered "Will it ever be like that again?"

But not $5...

 

[jim4silver]

All below is my opinion and might be completely wrong.

If you are trying to call me out on posting that line, I do it because I am just saying what I believe and that it is my opinion, as opposed to some here who post who claim to KNOW what is going to happen and who usually are wrong anyway.

Jim

 

[TheRandyMan]

On the contrary, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, my kind Sir. I have said many times that no one knows exactly what will happen. We are all giving our opinions based on experience and research.

I simply liked your epilogue and made my version of it as a prologue.

I would not "call anyone out" for an internet opinion

No matter what mts has told you.

 

[jeff of pa]

some really strange people are even throwing $5 an ounce around . Don't ask me what exactly they are smoking because some of them are moderators and I don't want to get into trouble...


But for now...We have a failure to communicate... and all looks normal. Physical silver buyers once again will have an opportunity to buy at levels they wondered "Will it ever be like that again?"

But not $5...

Whatever is going on, I Havn't seen
this since the Hunt brothers got caught.

& It dropped to Below $10.00 an OZ.

Maybe Profit taking Before the end of the World
next year

Trust me, I'll find my silver with My Metal Detectors.
one dime at a time.

$5.00 is still My Buy Price

 

[dogpound]

now if only gas prices would take a drop like that

 

[ivan salis]

25% drop in price --48 to 36 * -- caused by the big timer "naked contract sellers" who sit on the controlling boards raising the "margins" needed for a contract thus forcing many small time players out of the market since they can not "afford" the new rates --making them "dump" / sell off their current contracts and leave the market -- the big time naked sellers of futures contract WANT THE MARKET TO TANK -- to avoid having to fill those contracts with actual silver at a high price. --with the market crashing they can swoop in and statch up the contracts (if they want em )--or --just let them "die" ( the contracts are only good for a certain "window" of time - "die" as in being unused by the "small timer" futures speculator who bought it , who with the price so much lower will not pull the trigger to take "phyiscal ownership" of the actual silver . ) -- classic "pump and dump" market manipulation by the big boys .

think of playing small stakes poker with a batch of freinds and they sudden go from $5 to 10 dollar opening bids to say 1000 --suddenly a lot folks can not "afford" to play --only the rich folks can.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Which is exactly why I want to see the end of futures trading, whether in PM's or Crude oil.... Why? Because the basturds buy it with absolutely NO type of backing such as dollars, etc... How could any of us go to a trader, or Las Vegas for that matter, place a bet for $2 million, and have nothing to back it up with?
I hope they pass that legislation that prohibits futures trading/speculation, etc., without having to come up with the actual cash to lay down on said "purchases".... I think if they would do that, you would see the volatile futures/speculation market get back into line... It's awful easy to make bets with no collateral to back up that bet..
And I also believe that you are right on the money when it comes to the "paper" PM sellers manipulating the price down to save their butts when they actually DO have to come up with currency to pay off people..

 

[s.c.shooter]

Still buying! I think that econmy will completely tank if we don't vote out the people running the country right now.

 

[Vodka1000]

Bottom line is 3 years ago people want a change - and what we got in return
I wonder if on a year from now will "he" get another chance - hope not.
We need a change from the bottom up, but we will have to wait and survive another year and some.
State of our economy on the paper looks ok but in reality is far from it.
We are far from over - we did not hit the bottom yet did anyone hear "the splash"
I didn't!!!