Should I buy more now or wait?

I hope I am not becoming a bear, but for the first time in YEARS I have no desire to "stack" silver. I will still continue to buy cheap semi numis stuff when I can, but for now I have NO desire to go and buy "regular" stuff. The supplies at my local places are crappy, but I have enough good "connections" that I made over the years that I can almost always get a few hundred worth with decent premiums if I am not picky on what it is. Over the weekend when I was presented with a chance to get some common modern silver dollar commems in the capsules only for $1.25 over melt per coin (that is CHEAP) it hit me- I didn't want them even though I have some extra $$$ to spend. I told the guy I would let him know on Monday, but I am "not feeling it" as they say. I don't know why? Other than the constant failure of silver to go up since 2011, I don't know. I don't really see silver going too much lower and there being ample supply. Maybe I am just burned out?

I still DO believe in time (a couple years at MOST), we will all see silver and gold (and platinum metals) rise again, if only as a cyclical fancy of the big money boys for a few months or a year (that is, if the big crash of the generation or whatever it is that's about to happen doesn't happen).

I am happy I have the PM's I have now, but maybe it is time to stack some cash?

Jim
 

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Jim,
Glad you stopped stacking silver; and I wouldn't advise stacking 'cash'; it will only depreciate.
As you know, I've been 'stacking' the likes of AT&T stock (current cash yield is 5.77%)
If silver ever hits 12, I'll take a serious look, but I feel sorry for the stackers who, for the last several years probably are in a net loss position if forced to sell. Meanwhile, their 'stack' is not earning a penny.
It's OK to turn bear; better bear than bust.
Don....
 

Mackaydon said:
Jim,
Glad you stopped stacking silver; and I wouldn't advise stacking 'cash'; it will only depreciate.
As you know, I've been 'stacking' the likes of AT&T stock (current cash yield is 5.77%)
If silver ever hits 12, I'll take a serious look, but I feel sorry for the stackers who, for the last several years probably are in a net loss position if forced to sell. Meanwhile, their 'stack' is not earning a penny.
It's OK to turn bear; better bear than bust.
Don....
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say I am a bear. I am just fully stocked on PM's. Anything new I buy will be great deals on semi numis stuff. No more stacking for now.

Jim
 

jim4silver said:
Is anyone else buying any right now? My stores are starting to get a bit more inventory but the premiums are higher than before. Silver Eagles $20+ per coin. Some Australian Kangaroo silver coins are available for $3+ over spot but I am not biting yet.

Jim
Click to expand...

I'm still looking, but don't like the current premiums. I was tempted by a tube (25) of 2016 Australian Kangaroos for $430 the other day, not too bad, but more than I want to pay right now. I received a 10 oz Johnson Matthey silver bar from my Father-in-law's estate last week. I don't do bars, but have to admit it was sort of cool. Caused me to price silver bars and came across a 100 oz AMPEX struck bar with a mirror finish for $1,615, delivered. I was tempted, but decided to pass.

I have no clue where prices are headed from here.

TCK
 

look at the lowest since like 2003...it was like 5-7 per ounce....but i dont think were ever going to see those prices again...although precious metal market is manipulated buying right now is probbaly ur best bet...i cant see it falling less than 10 per ounce and its almost inevitable that the market will eventually rise again...keep stacking and hold on....i know alot of perople who invested at 35-40 an ounce...that proabably wasnt smart..but if u have a good connect right now is a great time to buy!
 

Today I picked up some silver proof sets from Jamaica, Barbados, Bahamas and Panama. In each set only one or a few of the coins are silver (92.5 and some .800). These are from the early to mid 70s. Most I got were just the strip with the coins, but no COA's and no boxes except in a couple of them. Some of these are absolutely beautiful coins. All seem to be made by Franklin Mint. The Barbados and Bahamas coins are my favorites.

The best part is I paid less than $1 over melt for them. I averaged it out and I got them all for roughly 75 cents over melt for the silver, the clad coins were free. They were heading for the refiner and I got them cheap from one of my local guys.

Here are a few examples of what I picked up.

1975 Commonwealth of the Bahamas Proof Set 2.87 OZ of Silver | AtAuction.com
1975 Barbados Proof Set; Minted at The Franklin Mint
1975 Jamaica Silver $10 Columbus Proof | Silver & Other Coins (Jamaica) | APMEX

Jim
 

Excellent pick up Jim. My favorite foreign (other than Canada) proof sets are from Belize from the 1970s. All coins INCLUDING the cent are sterling. True, I purchased most of them when silver was around $36, but with the mintage of only 31K (1974), I'll hold onto them for awhile. The ASW of the set is 3.08 oz.
 

Silvers steady 5 yr decline, makes me believe we will see 7/oz in a year or more.

sit tight.
 

Gold Maven said:
Silvers steady 5 yr decline, makes me believe we will see 7/oz in a year or more.

sit tight.
Click to expand...


Wow, I thought some of the pro PM folks had outrageous predictions. One or two of the smart, bearish regulars here who correctly predicted silver would get to $14 (Bradley was one of them) failed to understand at the time of their predictions that there would be virtually ZERO ounces of silver available AT THOSE PRICES. Want some crap generic, pay $2.25 over (locally that is what it costs now if you want the metal in hand). Whomever thinks silver will keep dropping in paper prices and that the physical prices (what it costs to obtain real silver coins/bars) will follow is going to be sad when their dreams fail.

Right here and now, a silver eagle costs $20 or so. When silver was $17 per ounce the ASEs were $20. So silver drops $2.50 per ounce and an ASE costs the SAME as when silver was $17. So I guess IF the paper market could get to $7, what do you think an ounce of silver would cost? Even $12 per ounce would cause much more buying than now, if that is possible. I really don't think we will see physical silver for cheaper than it is now, no matter what the paper price becomes. We'll have to wait and see. I have great silver "connections" and it takes me a lot of scrounging to come up with cheaper premium stuff, and right now that is stuff nobody else wants (locally), like .925 foreign stuff, etc.

Many coin dealers/wholesalers who have been in the business even 30+ years are saying now the demand for physical is greater than EVER BEFORE! Why is that? Silver was $4 per ounce in the early 2000s and there was not such demand. When silver hit near $50 in 2011 there was not such demand. As silver languished in a 4 year downtrend there was not such demand (Ok, briefly in 2013 when silver dropped below mid 20s there was high demand- but not like now per the coin dealers). I believe much of this heavy physical demand IS wealthier investors getting out of stocks or diversifying into PM's. I don't believe all this physical demand is mom and pop buyers (like me). Yes, they are buying somewhat, but there is more demand coming from somewhere I don't know where, but I guess it is some getting out of stocks and into PM's but that is just my guess.

Just my opinion.

Jim
 

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jim4silver said:
Wow, I thought some of the pro PM folks had outrageous predictions. One or two of the smart, bearish regulars here who correctly predicted silver would get to $14 (Bradley was one of them) failed to understand at the time of their predictions that there would be virtually ZERO ounces of silver available AT THOSE PRICES. Want some crap generic, pay $2.25 over (locally that is what it costs now if you want the metal in hand). Whomever thinks silver will keep dropping in paper prices and that the physical prices (what it costs to obtain real silver coins/bars) will follow is going to be sad when their dreams fail.

Right here and now, a silver eagle costs $20 or so. When silver was $17 per ounce the ASEs were $20. So silver drops $2.50 per ounce and an ASE costs the SAME as when silver was $17. So I guess IF the paper market could get to $7, what do you think an ounce of silver would cost? Even $12 per ounce would cause much more buying than now, if that is possible. I really don't think we will see physical silver for cheaper than it is now, no matter what the paper price becomes. We'll have to wait and see. I have great silver "connections" and it takes me a lot of scrounging to come up with cheaper premium stuff, and right now that is stuff nobody else wants (locally), like .925 foreign stuff, etc.

Many coin dealers/wholesalers who have been in the business even 30+ years are saying now the demand for physical is greater than EVER BEFORE! Why is that? Silver was $4 per ounce in the early 2000s and there was not such demand. When silver hit near $50 in 2011 there was not such demand. As silver languished in a 4 year downtrend there was not such demand (Ok, briefly in 2013 when silver dropped below mid 20s there was high demand- but not like now per the coin dealers). I believe much of this heavy physical demand IS wealthier investors getting out of stocks or diversifying into PM's. I don't believe all this physical demand is mom and pop buyers (like me). Yes, they are buying somewhat, but there is more demand coming from somewhere I don't know where, but I guess it is some getting out of stocks and into PM's but that is just my guess.

Just my opinion.

Jim
Click to expand...

Very nice post Jim.

History shows that paper and physical price discrepancies will ultimately migrate back to normal levels; I guess I'll just have to grin and "Bear" it until that happens. Personally, I believe that it is the retail buyer (small individual) that is pushing the current premiums up. Each weekend some of the large Ebay sellers (APMEX, etc...) will put out a few "specials", at maybe $1.99 over spot, and it is amazing to watch the sales volumes in response to these deals. Think about it, a retail buyer competes in a retail market.

I guess, in some respects, I qualify as one of the regular bears here, as I have expected (maybe just hoped) that prices would continue to trend down. Make no mistake about it though, I believe in silver long-term, which is why, among other reasons (diversifying, SHTF contingency-albeit low risk in my mind, etc...) I am a buyer.

BTW Jim, what are you going to do when you approach the 5,000 post level? Change your name to jim4gold and take your investing to that other level?

Regards,

TCK
 

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TheCoinKid said:
Very nice post Jim.

History shows that paper and physical price discrepancies will ultimately migrate back to normal levels; I guess I'll just have to grin and "Bear" it until that happens. Personally, I believe that it is the retail buyer (small individual) that is pushing the current premiums up. Each weekend some of the large Ebay sellers (APMEX, etc...) will put out a few "specials", at maybe $1.99 over spot, and it is amazing to watch the sales volumes in response to these deals. Think about it, a retail buyer competes in a retail market.

I guess, in some respects, I qualify as one of the regular bears here, as I have expected (maybe just hoped) that prices would continue to trend down. Make no mistake about it though, I believe in silver long-term, which is why, among other reasons (diversifying, SHTF contingency-albeit low risk in my mind, etc...) I am a buyer.

BTW Jim, what are you going to do when you approach the 5,000 post level? Change your name to jim4gold and take your investing to that other level?

Regards,

TCK
Click to expand...



TCK,

Yes you and I think DMAN were both right in your calls along with Bradley about silver falling as it did over the past year or so to current levels.

I will change my name to jim4gold after the silver to gold ratio gets lower and I sell most of my silver for gold. Back in 2011 the ratio was 33 to 1 or so at its recent lowest. If/when PM's ever rise again I think we will reach that same ratio, maybe even do better (lower number) if PM bull hysteria kicks in hard enough.

I actually think there will be a time to sell PMs after a large run up, just like there always has been. I just think we are in for higher numbers than last time.

Jim
 

What's the ratio now? 75/1? Problem is you can't tell if silver is too low or gold too high.

TCK
 

jim4silver said:
TCK,

Yes you and I think DMAN were both right in your calls along with Bradley about silver falling as it did over the past year or so to current levels.

I will change my name to jim4gold after the silver to gold ratio gets lower and I sell most of my silver for gold. Back in 2011 the ratio was 33 to 1 or so at its recent lowest. If/when PM's ever rise again I think we will reach that same ratio, maybe even do better (lower number) if PM bull hysteria kicks in hard enough.

I actually think there will be a time to sell PMs after a large run up, just like there always has been. I just think we are in for higher numbers than last time.

Jim
Click to expand...

O! No my only bull friend is going to the dark side. :censored::tongue3: By the way, I just bought 4 oz's of that little gold colored stuff to add to my stack in the past few days. Keep Stacking
 

Can you believe it CNBC is getting Bullish on Gold. Lol Glad I started buying it a few weeks ago. Lol Look out Jim we are going through the trend line. Is it time to buy papernow? Lol

Suddenly, this commodity is hot
 

Marchas45 said:
Can you believe it CNBC is getting Bullish on Gold. Lol Glad I started buying it a few weeks ago. Lol Look out Jim we are going through the trend line. Is it time to buy papernow? Lol

Suddenly, this commodity is hot
Click to expand...

Charlie,

I hope it goes up someday. Once we get to $20 I will like it because that is my official stop buying price point. I already have too much silver (relative to my assets) but at least my dollar cost is much lower than it was thanks to this last year and a half or so of cheaper prices.

I am definitely not a bear, but more like someone who has been beaten down so many times I've just learned to expect that (with silver prices). I wouldn't load up on too much gold though. If gold goes up silver will too and with a more dramatic move, just like when the prices fall, silver falls further and harder. One day I hope to wind up 75% gold 25% silver, with that gold coming from selling silver once the ratio gets low enough.

Do you know a good cheap digital camera for taking good ebay photos. I am finally ready to get involved in ebay. I have a bunch of cool semi numis stuff I got cheap that I can make some $$$ on even with the 15% or whatever it is they get (ebay plus paypal fees, etc)?


Jim
 

jim4silver said:
Charlie,

I hope it goes up someday. Once we get to $20 I will like it because that is my official stop buying price point. I already have too much silver (relative to my assets) but at least my dollar cost is much lower than it was thanks to this last year and a half or so of cheaper prices.

I am definitely not a bear, but more like someone who has been beaten down so many times I've just learned to expect that (with silver prices). I wouldn't load up on too much gold though. If gold goes up silver will too and with a more dramatic move, just like when the prices fall, silver falls further and harder. One day I hope to wind up 75% gold 25% silver, with that gold coming from selling silver once the ratio gets low enough.

Do you know a good cheap digital camera for taking good ebay photos. I am finally ready to get involved in ebay. I have a bunch of cool semi numis stuff I got cheap that I can make some $$$ on even with the 15% or whatever it is they get (ebay plus paypal fees, etc)?


Jim
Click to expand...

Jim I only have about 20 oz's of gold and I lost count after 2000 oz's of silver so hence the change. :laughing7:My cell phone takes great pictures:laughing7: actually I have a Cannon Rebel SLR that I also use for my real estate which also takes great pictures of coins but not cheap.:tongue3:Keep Stacking
 

TheCoinKid said:
What's the ratio now? 75/1? Problem is you can't tell if silver is too low or gold too high.

TCK
Click to expand...


Ratio dropped to under 72 this am. Just wait until things really start moving (whenever that is).

Here is the gold/silver ratio chart. Scroll down to the 1 year or 2 year chart. That uptrend (meaning ratio getting higher) is clearly BROKEN. Whenever I see long term trends break like that, there is a strong likelihood of a trend change, even if just temporary. To me, the long term trend line formations are some of the strongest patterns, even better than head and shoulders, reverse head and shoulders, etc.

Gold Silver Ratio

Jim
 

Looking at the longest chart (36 years) the historical average ratio for that period looks to be in the mid 50's. I guess that's where I would expect the ratio to migrate to intermediate term. I still think it might well be the gold price that gets us there. It's not that I'm pessimistic on silver prices, it's just that I'm not so sure gold over $1,000 is long-term sustainable.

If I really knew where prices were headed, I'd be out spending my money and not posting here!!!
 

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