Odds

[aarthrj3811]

I started a thread a few years ago about odds and had problems getting answers. With all the new people and some of the same old "technically challenged"people that are here now I thought I would try again.

Last spring I buried 10 gold nuggets in my front yard. The lawn has been watered and mowed all summer so there are no clues as to where they are. I am constanty told that these objects can be found by chance guessing.
If you were to come to my house how many of the gold nuggets would you expect to find with out any kind of help from tools ? I want good honest answers using only your knowledge, intuition, guessing and all that good stuff. …Art

 

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[ClonedSIM]

I started a thread a few years ago about odds and had problems getting answers. With all the new people and some of the same old "technically challenged"people that are here now I thought I would try again.

Last spring I buried 10 gold nuggets in my front yard. The lawn has been watered and mowed all summer so there are no clues as to where they are. I am constanty told that these objects can be found by chance guessing.
If you were to come to my house how many of the gold nuggets would you expect to find with out any kind of help from tools ? I want good honest answers using only your knowledge, intuition, guessing and all that good stuff. …Art

You still don't understand, Art.

More than once you've been told that a gold-bearing area would give clues to a knowledgeable person on where best to look for that gold. This is where finding gold and guessing using visible clues have been compared.

Your yard scenario would give no clues to anyone, even a gold expert, on where to look for said gold, because the area has been worked and no longer resembles the original lay of the land. Not only that, but since the nuggets were hand buried, even if the land were virgin one would not expect this gold to be buried in a naturally occurring location.

You are purposely mingling previous comparisons with your yard scenario.

On the other hand, if you brought a bonafide self-proclaimed dowser into your yard, he would have no more luck finding the gold than would an average man-off-the-street. It would turn into a guessing game for both.

As far as odds go, you haven't provided enough information to even generate a set of calculations. We would need to know the size of the yard, the size of the area the nuggets are buried, etc.

As has been explained, calculating odds is a related to mathematics. You have provided no information relating to this field in order to generate the odds of guessing the location of the nuggets, so you question was doomed from the beginning. This is your own fault, no one else's.

 

[aarthrj3811]

As far as odds go, you haven't provided enough information to even generate a set of calculations. We would need to know the size of the yard, the size of the area the nuggets are buried, etc.

As has been explained, calculating odds is a related to mathematics. You have provided no information relating to this field in order to generate the odds of guessing the location of the nuggets, so you question was doomed from the beginning. This is your own fault, no one else's.

Gee AF…I thought it would be a simple question…

If you were to come to my house how many of the gold nuggets would you expect to find with out any kind of help from tools ?

I will be darn…It is a simple question…Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

As far as odds go, you haven't provided enough information to even generate a set of calculations. We would need to know the size of the yard, the size of the area the nuggets are buried, etc.

As has been explained, calculating odds is a related to mathematics. You have provided no information relating to this field in order to generate the odds of guessing the location of the nuggets, so you question was doomed from the beginning. This is your own fault, no one else's.

Gee AF…I thought it would be a simple question…

If you were to come to my house how many of the gold nuggets would you expect to find with out any kind of help from tools ?

I will be darn…It is a simple question…Art

When will you learn to understand the English language, Art? (<----Apparently this is a difficult question for you.)

Provide enough details to give a proper response, and you will get a proper response.

How about you answer one question for me?

How many coins are in the coffee mug sitting on my desk?

It's a simple question, too.

Answer mine and I'll answer yours.

 

[aarthrj3811]

Did I ask a question about coffee mugs ? I plan on asking harder question after I get a few answers to a simple question. It seems that you want to muddy the water so you have something to twist and spin. Are you afraid to answer the question as it may conflict with most of your posts…..Art

4 and counting

 

[ClonedSIM]

Did I ask a question about coffee mugs ? I plan on asking harder question after I get a few answers to a simple question. It seems that you want to muddy the water so you have something to twist and spin. Are you afraid to answer the question as it may conflict with most of your posts…..Art

4 and counting

Anything I say here won't conflict with any of my previous posts, Art. As I've told you, the truth doesn't change.

You are starting to act really paranoid again, Art. Forget your meds?

I'll repeat:

How many coins are in the coffee mug sitting on my desk?

It's a simple question, too.

Answer mine and I'll answer yours.

 

[ClonedSIM]

Actually, never mind that last post.

If you were to come to my house how many of the gold nuggets would you expect to find with out any kind of help from tools ?

The answer is 0.

The reason for that answer is explained in my first post on this thread.

 

[Tom_in_CA]

ah c'mon you guys, BE NICE! (that means you Af!). Art, I accept that all visible clues may be gone, and that you may have totally forgotten where you buried your nuggets in your yard. Question: Could a total stranger (Judy, dowser, Ivan, or Dell for instance) come to your house and have better-than-average success at locating the nuggets?

BTW: What is the size of your yard? How many nuggets and how large are/were they?

 

[ClonedSIM]

ah c'mon you guys, BE NICE! (that means you Af!). Art, I accept that all visible clues may be gone, and that you may have totally forgotten where you buried your nuggets in your yard. Question: Could a total stranger (Judy, dowser, Ivan, or Dell for instance) come to your house and have better-than-average success at locating the nuggets?

BTW: What is the size of your yard? How many nuggets and how large are/were they?

Those questions have been asked already, Tom

Art refuses to answer them.

See the second post on the thread.

 

[aarthrj3811]

ah c'mon you guys, BE NICE! (that means you Af!). Art, I accept that all visible clues may be gone, and that you may have totally forgotten where you buried your nuggets in your yard. Question: Could a total stranger (Judy, dowser, Ivan, or Dell for instance) come to your house and have better-than-average success at locating the nuggets?

BTW: What is the size of your yard? How many nuggets and how large are/were they?

Tom….It is snowing out there but I estimate that the yard is about 50 x 20. I used a 2 inch round Bulb digger to bury them. They are around 3 inches deep. I used 10 nuggets ( I call them clingers as they cling when dropped in a pan ) with a weight of about a ¼ oz. I can not remember exactly where they are.

The question was how many of them would you expect to find using no kind of tools. I know how many I would expect to find if I walked out there and tried to dig one up without using tools. This is an attempt to see how the average person thinks about his or her chances of finding the nuggets. I know what I have been told in the past and want to compare the thoughts of more people….Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

ah c'mon you guys, BE NICE! (that means you Af!). Art, I accept that all visible clues may be gone, and that you may have totally forgotten where you buried your nuggets in your yard. Question: Could a total stranger (Judy, dowser, Ivan, or Dell for instance) come to your house and have better-than-average success at locating the nuggets?

BTW: What is the size of your yard? How many nuggets and how large are/were they?

Tom….It is snowing out there but I estimate that the yard is about 50 x 20. I used a 2 inch round Bulb digger to bury them. They are around 3 inches deep. I used 10 nuggets ( I call them clingers as they cling when dropped in a pan ) with a weight of about a ¼ oz. I can not remember exactly where they are.

The question was how many of them would you expect to find using no kind of tools. I know how many I would expect to find if I walked out there and tried to dig one up without using tools. This is an attempt to see how the average person thinks about his or her chances of finding the nuggets. I know what I have been told in the past and want to compare the thoughts of more people….Art

Your own results aren't of any value here, Art. You buried the gold, remember?

How about testing another dowsers without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

 

[aarthrj3811]

Your own results aren't of any value here, Art. You buried the gold, remember?

How about testing another dowsers without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

What don’t you understand. No tools just what people would expect to find….Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

Your own results aren't of any value here, Art. You buried the gold, remember?

How about testing another dowsers without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

What don’t you understand. No tools just what people would expect to find….Art

Isn't that what I asked?

How about testing another dowser without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

 

[aarthrj3811]

How about testing another dowser without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

Gee AF…Is that not part of my question ? I have your answer of 0...That is a start....Art

 

[jerrync]

art if i got to dig 10 holes in a 20 50 yard i'd say my chances would be pretty good to find 1 nugget

 

[ClonedSIM]

How about testing another dowser without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

Gee AF…Is that not part of my question ? I have your answer of 0...That is a start....Art

You just now getting around to reading that post?

How about testing another dowser without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

 

[aarthrj3811]

Thanks jerrync

 

[aarthrj3811]

How about testing another dowser without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

Every one is welcome to put their expectations on here. What would be the difference if they were dowsers? I am just trying see what real people would expect to happen…Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

How about testing another dowser without his/her rods? How would you expect them to fare?

Every one is welcome to put their expectations on here. What would be the difference if they were dowsers? I am just trying see what real people would expect to happen…Art

Fine, how many nuggets do you expect a normal person would find unaided? Surely you have some hypothesis?

 

[aarthrj3811]

Fine, how many nuggets do you expect a normal person would find unaided?

I don't know AF...That is what I would like to know...Art