Hi all. I first started getting interested in silver when i discovered this site and coin roll hunting about a year ago. Since then I have watched the price but never felt confident enough to make a decent size purchase. Mostly all the silver I have ive gotten from crh or got cheap from family or craigslist. The biggest purchase ive made to date was 9 1oz buffalo rounds from provident metals. With the dip in price lately ive been trying to figure out if its time or not time to buy gold or silver. Im only 20 years old and am not looking at this for a short term invest, im more interested in the long term. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. Im always looking to gain knowledge and folks here seems to know what theyre talking about.
Young investor needs some advice
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TreasurePirate69
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- Jan 20, 2012
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Well, you will get plenty of different opinions on here. And I can tell you right now that I don't know what I'm talking about. But my belief is that silver and gold will be at $16 and $900 in the next two years. Right now the premiums are way too high so it is like you are paying $27/ozt which is ridiculous considering spot is currently $22.50. A lot of people rushed in to try and catch the falling knife when silver took its last big dip. This has run premiums up through the roof. If you wait for a couple of months these premiums will come down. And if you wait for a couple of years everything will be cheaper.
I won't go into the details of why I believe this. Do a little reading around here and you'll quickly see the two sides and their arguments. I absolutely LOVE silver. I love to hold it, smell it, listen to it ring, and watch it shine. But I'm not making any major purchases right now. When silver hits $16 then I'm going to start buying large amounts again. And I think the price will languish below $20 for many years. So I believe you will have plenty of time to accumulate a large load of silver by the time your retire. And when the next big mania hits (30 years from now), just be sure to cash out some of that silver when the price finally flirts with $50 again.
I won't go into the details of why I believe this. Do a little reading around here and you'll quickly see the two sides and their arguments. I absolutely LOVE silver. I love to hold it, smell it, listen to it ring, and watch it shine. But I'm not making any major purchases right now. When silver hits $16 then I'm going to start buying large amounts again. And I think the price will languish below $20 for many years. So I believe you will have plenty of time to accumulate a large load of silver by the time your retire. And when the next big mania hits (30 years from now), just be sure to cash out some of that silver when the price finally flirts with $50 again.
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As many may respond to your request, I believe you will view posts/opinions on both sides of this investment issue--as in any investment discussion. Some will suggest 'buy' now, some will say 'sell' now-- before it goes any lower; and others may say neither buy nor sell till a better trend is visible. And, as you mentioned, many contributors "seem to know what they're talking about'. But in the end, there is no substitution for doing your own THOROUGH research to reach an investment decision. Moreover, you may wish to do your own research first then have it 'tested' against the opinion of others--thereby lessening the 'temptation' of being swayed by persuasive opinions of others who 'seem to know what they're talking about'.
Don.....
Don.....
TreasurePirate69
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Amen Don!
I wish several years ago that I had done my own research first instead of just listening to the battle cry of the silver bulls. I listened to them and accepted their beliefs because that is what I WANTED to believe. In the end it worked out ok for me because I bought most of my silver back when it was around $16-$18. But I can't imagine what I would be thinking right now if I had followed their advice and bought at any price thinking that silver was supposed to be $150 by now.
That doesn't mean that they were wrong and I am right. Far from it. They may end up being the ones that were right all along. But at least now I have my own opinions based on my own thoughts and research rather than just blindly following the beliefs of others. There are a lot of fallacies being slung by both sides of this argument and the best thing you can do is question everything and think for yourself. After all, both sides have a vested interest in making you believe what they want you to believe. YOU are the only one with a vested interest in making sure you make the right investment decisions for yourself.
I wish several years ago that I had done my own research first instead of just listening to the battle cry of the silver bulls. I listened to them and accepted their beliefs because that is what I WANTED to believe. In the end it worked out ok for me because I bought most of my silver back when it was around $16-$18. But I can't imagine what I would be thinking right now if I had followed their advice and bought at any price thinking that silver was supposed to be $150 by now.
That doesn't mean that they were wrong and I am right. Far from it. They may end up being the ones that were right all along. But at least now I have my own opinions based on my own thoughts and research rather than just blindly following the beliefs of others. There are a lot of fallacies being slung by both sides of this argument and the best thing you can do is question everything and think for yourself. After all, both sides have a vested interest in making you believe what they want you to believe. YOU are the only one with a vested interest in making sure you make the right investment decisions for yourself.
When you make any kind of investment, you need to ask yourself a couple of questions first. Why am I investing in this (PMs)? Is this a long term or short term investment (you answered this, good for you!)? And what are my goals?
If you want to invest in PMs because you believe the prices will rise in the long term then start buying now. And continue to buy small amounts over time untill you feel you have reached your goals. If you wait for the price to drop before you buy, that is the same as playing the market (short term investment). The best way to make a long term investment in PMs, is dollar cost averaging. And as everyone else has said, research,research, research!
Personally, I like 90% coins, SAEs and Maple Leaves. I have a few generic and private mint rounds and bars because they are interesting, but they are not as easy to deal with as goverment minted coins.
Good luck, skeeter
If you want to invest in PMs because you believe the prices will rise in the long term then start buying now. And continue to buy small amounts over time untill you feel you have reached your goals. If you wait for the price to drop before you buy, that is the same as playing the market (short term investment). The best way to make a long term investment in PMs, is dollar cost averaging. And as everyone else has said, research,research, research!
Personally, I like 90% coins, SAEs and Maple Leaves. I have a few generic and private mint rounds and bars because they are interesting, but they are not as easy to deal with as goverment minted coins.
Good luck, skeeter
jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
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What makes all of this "fun" is that nobody really knows which way PMs are going short to mid term. We all have guesses and hunches, but even individuals in the "business" for 30 years really can only guess just like a newbie.
Instead of seeking OPINIONS, learn to discover FACTS. Unfortunately, it is hard to know which facts are really true facts and which are merely opinions disguised as facts.
Here are a few financial FACTS worth noting, for whatever it is worth:
1. The US debt is near 17 TRILLION, and appears to keep growing with no end in site due to the fact that to reduce said debt, we would have to cut medicare, social security, stop all the wars we are involved in, etc etc. Do you think any of that will be remedied in the next 5 to 10 years, or do you think this situation will get worse?
1. A. The US debt limit has been reached again and will need to be raised. Looks like they are making progress right?
2. The US deficit is currently around 1 TRILLION per year or more, and appears to be getting worse. Some don't understand the difference between the US debt and a budget deficit. Basically the deficit is the money we need to spend each year but don't have and need to borrow to keep things running. The US debt is the accumulated deficits from each year, plus other things we spend on but cannot pay for and thus need to borrow to pay, that are all lumped together for a total sum. Just my rough definition of these things.
3. Major countries all over the world are now doing some form of QE which may differ a bit from country to country, but are all designed to weaken their own currencies by increasing the number of dollars, digits, etc that are available to be lent out. Seems strange that a country would want a weaker currency, but sometimes that can be advantageous for a short term, but longer term will result in inflation. Right now they say we don't have much inflation because the QE money is just sitting in banks and has not really been released to the world. That may be true, but it will happen eventually. You need to watch what is termed the "velocity" of money.
4. The US has record numbers on food stamps and other forms of gov assistance. Further, unemployment numbers are not getting better but worse, since the unemployment numbers don't count those who are off unemployment or have given up looking. Anything on the horizon that is going to make the US a manufacturing powerhouse or bring in new jobs other than min. wage type things? Further, I doubt the service sector jobs moved offshore will be coming back anytime soon.
5. The Cyprus money grab situation, which I believe will take place in many countries over time as things fall apart. Many countries have now passed laws allowing "bail ins" since the Cyrus grab. I wonder why they would pass such laws? Some may spin the Cyprus thing as simply a bank going under. It is much more than that but I don't have time to go into all that now.
The list can go on and on. My question to you is, in light of these bad facts, why in the world would stock markets be at record levels? Is there any correlation between our new stock market highs and our current state of our country's financial situation? Seems the stock market should be going lower since presumably the only thing keeping things running is artificial stimulus by the fed (QE). Maybe nobody cares as long as the stock market keeps making new highs.
I am sure some of the bearish posters will tell me even though the items I listed are true or accurate, they don't matter. We live in a modern world and everything has changed for the better. All the "rules" that applied to financial situations for thousands of years don't matter anymore now that we have smart phones and google glasses etc. Unfortunately, things don't change much with respect to humans and human emotions and greed, etc.
To know the future, study the past. The distant past and even what happened in the 20th century.
PS I am a PM bug, but when I wake up each morning and see silver and gold down more it actually makes me happy because I know I will still be able to accumulate a bit more metals while the price is still relatively cheap.
All my opinion, with a few "facts" thrown in.
Jim
Instead of seeking OPINIONS, learn to discover FACTS. Unfortunately, it is hard to know which facts are really true facts and which are merely opinions disguised as facts.
Here are a few financial FACTS worth noting, for whatever it is worth:
1. The US debt is near 17 TRILLION, and appears to keep growing with no end in site due to the fact that to reduce said debt, we would have to cut medicare, social security, stop all the wars we are involved in, etc etc. Do you think any of that will be remedied in the next 5 to 10 years, or do you think this situation will get worse?
1. A. The US debt limit has been reached again and will need to be raised. Looks like they are making progress right?
2. The US deficit is currently around 1 TRILLION per year or more, and appears to be getting worse. Some don't understand the difference between the US debt and a budget deficit. Basically the deficit is the money we need to spend each year but don't have and need to borrow to keep things running. The US debt is the accumulated deficits from each year, plus other things we spend on but cannot pay for and thus need to borrow to pay, that are all lumped together for a total sum. Just my rough definition of these things.
3. Major countries all over the world are now doing some form of QE which may differ a bit from country to country, but are all designed to weaken their own currencies by increasing the number of dollars, digits, etc that are available to be lent out. Seems strange that a country would want a weaker currency, but sometimes that can be advantageous for a short term, but longer term will result in inflation. Right now they say we don't have much inflation because the QE money is just sitting in banks and has not really been released to the world. That may be true, but it will happen eventually. You need to watch what is termed the "velocity" of money.
4. The US has record numbers on food stamps and other forms of gov assistance. Further, unemployment numbers are not getting better but worse, since the unemployment numbers don't count those who are off unemployment or have given up looking. Anything on the horizon that is going to make the US a manufacturing powerhouse or bring in new jobs other than min. wage type things? Further, I doubt the service sector jobs moved offshore will be coming back anytime soon.
5. The Cyprus money grab situation, which I believe will take place in many countries over time as things fall apart. Many countries have now passed laws allowing "bail ins" since the Cyrus grab. I wonder why they would pass such laws? Some may spin the Cyprus thing as simply a bank going under. It is much more than that but I don't have time to go into all that now.
The list can go on and on. My question to you is, in light of these bad facts, why in the world would stock markets be at record levels? Is there any correlation between our new stock market highs and our current state of our country's financial situation? Seems the stock market should be going lower since presumably the only thing keeping things running is artificial stimulus by the fed (QE). Maybe nobody cares as long as the stock market keeps making new highs.
I am sure some of the bearish posters will tell me even though the items I listed are true or accurate, they don't matter. We live in a modern world and everything has changed for the better. All the "rules" that applied to financial situations for thousands of years don't matter anymore now that we have smart phones and google glasses etc. Unfortunately, things don't change much with respect to humans and human emotions and greed, etc.
To know the future, study the past. The distant past and even what happened in the 20th century.
PS I am a PM bug, but when I wake up each morning and see silver and gold down more it actually makes me happy because I know I will still be able to accumulate a bit more metals while the price is still relatively cheap.
All my opinion, with a few "facts" thrown in.
Jim
Wickaboag
Bronze Member
Hey there!
I'm young too, 16, and probably have 100 ounces or so. I invest in 90% coins from US Mints only. Recently I've been buying Morgan's and peace dollars. I only but maybe a couple a month and coin roll hunt on the side and it adds up! If you invest in coins, not just bullion, it can't loose it's value completely. People will always want lets say, a 1880 Morgan, random date. It will always have a dollar value if silver goes down more. That is how I look at it. Or maybe I'm nuts
I like Morgan's, peace dollars, and halfs. Lol!
Good luck investing!
Wicka
I'm young too, 16, and probably have 100 ounces or so. I invest in 90% coins from US Mints only. Recently I've been buying Morgan's and peace dollars. I only but maybe a couple a month and coin roll hunt on the side and it adds up! If you invest in coins, not just bullion, it can't loose it's value completely. People will always want lets say, a 1880 Morgan, random date. It will always have a dollar value if silver goes down more. That is how I look at it. Or maybe I'm nuts
I like Morgan's, peace dollars, and halfs. Lol!Good luck investing!
Wicka
AlanT
Newbie
Silver and Gold American Eagles. They're pretty, easy to store, and you can always liquidate them for spot if you know a good coin dealer.
Sure the price has dipped, and may dip even lower, but any smart investor will tell you to dollar-cost-average and you can't go wrong. So make some purchases now...and later. Timing the market is nothing easy to do, but at the end of the day, a smart investor should always show a profit by cost averaging.
Just my 2 cents.
Sure the price has dipped, and may dip even lower, but any smart investor will tell you to dollar-cost-average and you can't go wrong. So make some purchases now...and later. Timing the market is nothing easy to do, but at the end of the day, a smart investor should always show a profit by cost averaging.
Just my 2 cents.
If the govt collapses there will be pandemonium. Who praytell is going to buy your PMs when banks
go under and martial law is imposed? Your local benevolent coin shop? All business will shut down
and doors barred. Nationwide panic is not a good scenario for bugs.
go under and martial law is imposed? Your local benevolent coin shop? All business will shut down
and doors barred. Nationwide panic is not a good scenario for bugs.
jim4silver
Silver Member
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I read this site daily, and I cannot remember seeing a post where someone has predicted a govt "collapse" as you say. Yes I have seen predictions of the dollar losing a lot of value, stocks possibly crashing, money being stolen via bank bail ins, etc, but no actual govt collapse. People on here usually describe that as a Mad Max scenario. I personally don't believe that will happen here, other than for maybe a brief time after some terrible natural disaster or something like that.
But just for fun, let's say something like a govt collapse did happen, what would you LASTLEG recommend someone use to save their net worth? Stocks, bonds, ?
I would opine that even in a govt collapse, gold and silver will hold its value better than any other form of "money". A person would of course need a supply of food, water and protection, etc. in such a scenario.
At some point the govt would be put back together or whatever the problem situation is it would be fixed at some time. Then when things got back to "normal" and the dust settled PMs could then be sold. The paper investments like stocks and such could not be sold during a "govt collapse" as you call it, neither could bonds.
Has anyone ever noticed, that when an apparent "bear" shows up, all they do is say "PMs bad" and saying how the price will drop? How often have any of these posters ever offered their recommendations for alternative investments? To date, I don't remember any doing that.
Jim
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Herb Boyd
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At first, lots of things would be better than PM's if there were a "National Disaster"...of manmade causes or acts of nature: but eventually the survivors will begin to trade goods for services, and a medium of exchange will be needed. History has proven the value of PM's....
Jim I thought your premise is the US dollar will lose it's purchasing power. You call it fiat or worthless.
It that happened there would be world-wide chaos. Sellers would outnumber purchasers 100-1. You
asked what to buy now to prepare I would suggest ammo, if you can find any.
It that happened there would be world-wide chaos. Sellers would outnumber purchasers 100-1. You
asked what to buy now to prepare I would suggest ammo, if you can find any.
jim4silver
Silver Member
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Fiat simply means it is not backed by anything "tangible" per se. I never said it was worthless. I do believe most fiat world currencies will suffer huge sell-offs. As unpleasant as that might turn out to be, that doesn't mean one shouldn't do whatever they can to prepare. While I believe a person should do what they can to protect themselves, putting all of ones wealth into ammo sounds like a bad idea to me, just as would putting all of your money into PMs would be a not so good idea.
I am a fan of the 2nd Amend and have a CCW, but anyone who thinks they are going to survive long or even mid term if the world devolves into Mad Max is fooling themselves. I guess people think they can "hole up" in their house with an AR or AK and last until things clear up. I doubt most people would last that long considering now pretty much everyone has ARs or AKs, you can bet the bad guys or hoodlems will have them too. I guess if you are a better shot than they are?
Jim
Exactly my thoughts, Jim.
My problem with you bugs is you fall in love with one type investment because it appeals to your senses.
Gold is beautiful, silver is gorgeous, necessarily PMs are THE principle core holding that people need.
I have some of both but I can never buy enough to ensure protection from market forces.
Gold is beautiful, silver is gorgeous, necessarily PMs are THE principle core holding that people need.
I have some of both but I can never buy enough to ensure protection from market forces.
Not neccessarily. PMs are just a small part of my portfolio.
Me too!
Marchas45
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Lastleg you call us bugs and investors. Hell we are far from that (maybe a little for Pirate. Lol ). I'm just as bad as Jim at stacking and I have a bunch all for survival along with my guns, ammo, gas, food and other needs but definitely not PAPER except for wiping my ass.
Yes Marchas I am aware of your stackability. Are you also predicting the yankee dollar to go belly up?
I am no fan of the Fed under Bernacky but the entire world is dependent on the dollar to survive. Why
don't you bugs just say I like the feel of silver instead of creating an impression on young investors they
must stack and hoard assets that produce no income?
I just prefer capitol to earn its keep, give me a decent return. That way when you are too old to work
you sit back and enjoy the return without dipping into the vault.
I am no fan of the Fed under Bernacky but the entire world is dependent on the dollar to survive. Why
don't you bugs just say I like the feel of silver instead of creating an impression on young investors they
must stack and hoard assets that produce no income?
I just prefer capitol to earn its keep, give me a decent return. That way when you are too old to work
you sit back and enjoy the return without dipping into the vault.
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