US Dollar vs. gold and silver

[jim4silver]

Based on the chart action since this last post above, I believe silver is going to drop again, for short the term. I hope I am wrong. If it does drop I think we will be back in the 14's, maybe high 13's for a short time?

Looking at the silver chart it appears that lower is more likely than higher at least in short term. Here is a broken uptrend for silver.

http://schrts.co/mPSBxqsz

 

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[Johnnybravo300]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/05/the...conomy-are-telling-two-different-stories.html

Weird to see an article like this from one of the cheerleaders.

 

[jim4silver]

The silver chart looks pretty bad. I believe there is a good chance we will break below $15 this week. Probably be a big drop/slam when it happens. I hope I am wrong.

 

[jim4silver]

Silver chart and COT are still looking bearish. I believe in the coming week(s) we will get to low 14 maybe fall into 13s. Usually on drops the local coin stores get buyers. The local stores are seeing far more sellers than buyers from what I've been told. I saw it myself the other day at one store. I was the only one buying and had 5 or so other parties there selling silver and gold.

Buy high, sell low....

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Youd have to be pretty hard up to sell right now. Either that or they bought at $4.

 

[jim4silver]

Youd have to be pretty hard up to sell right now. Either that or they bought at $4.

Human psychology can be a funny thing. Some of these sellers bought for the wrong reasons (they thought silver was going to $100 really fast, etc) and now might believe silver is going to $5 and they just want to get some of their money back. Some probably need the cash too of course.

Some investors get bored and want action, so seeing silver stagnate for a few years and then drop, rinse and repeat, they want the cash to do something else, maybe buy bitcoin or penny stocks, etc.?

I have been buying cool stuff cheap when it is available. Lately I've picked up some nice foreign bullion for $18-$20 per oz (fancy coins in boxes with COA, etc). Many of these coins retail $40+, some higher, some only a few bucks more than what I pay.

I know my dealers pay these folks melt or less (if sterling coins) so they are happy to flip the coins to me for a few bucks over (but I usually am expected to buy the entire lot- I can't just cherry pick the best stuff). None of the dealers I buy from sell on ebay, which is great for me.

I am surprised to see the level of cool stuff being dumped at these low prices. That tells me we might be getting closer to a bottom if collectors are selling their stashes even when prices are down. I don't think all of these sellers are desperate for cash.

I think a lot of folks are so used to low silver prices these days, that they don't care to wait any longer hoping for the big price gains.

 

[jim4silver]

We are at an important juncture in silver price short term right now. If you look at the chart in the link, you can trace a downtrend line of high points that starts in late February 2019, and cascades downward till today. That line will be clearly broken in an upward direction if silver closes at $14.80ish tomorrow or Tuesday (markets closed Monday). If it does that, I believe silver will go to $15.30ish (which is the approx. 50% retracement point since Feb downturn), and from there who knows?

If we keep dropping and don't break that downtrend line any time soon, I would say low $14s maybe $13s is in the cards in before July. Seasonally, June and most of July are weak for gold and silver. That combined with the recent strength in the downward momentum in silver, I think we will see lower prices assuming no WW3, etc breaking out.


http://schrts.co/sGFYrfez

 

[jim4silver]

It looks like silver is either right at, or has barely broken the trend line (the line that connects the high points from Feb 2019 to now). And we have had four trading days of rising prices and corresponding rising volume.

Those two things are bullish for sure. But I can't help but still feel this is a "head fake" of some kind. The COT numbers are great in silver but in gold the commercials are still adding tons of short positions.

This will be fun to watch in the coming weeks. Either my stack gets more valuable or I buy more at the lowest prices I've seen in a bit.

http://schrts.co/ZHWCeStg

 

[Davers]

Great info as usual Jim4silver.

I may grab an ounce or 2 this week but knowing myself ill probably get 'Common' 90% Merc's or Quarters.

Tho I do need to pay off my Slabbed XF Seated Liberty Half. Decisions X 1,000.
Gd Jim

 

[jim4silver]

Even though silver dropped big today, today's low is still above the downtrend line formed by the recent high points from approx. late Feb to last week. And today's close is right at the 50% retracement point from the most recent high/low points. So really silver could just as easily go up tomorrow as drop.

Commercials went back very short last week in silver and continued increasing shorts in gold. So I am guessing lower short term.

PS I don't really mess with stocks but using my beginner level charting I kind of think stocks might be heading higher. Check out this weekly chart. You can see the resistance and three attempts to breach that failed. It looks somewhat like an ascending triangle which is normally bullish (but this one here is definitely not perfect in shape- if we could delete the December action it would be closer to ascending triangle).

Unless WW3 or a large bank fails, etc, I'm betting the price goes up this summer.

http://schrts.co/MWyawhAE

 

[jim4silver]

Some well-known and highly respected fund manager types are saying that they are bullish on gold right now. This makes me want to doubt my short term bearish view for silver/gold.

I like seeing smart guys/gals who are responsible for billions of dollars of investment money say they like gold, who aren't the usual PM pumper "writers" you see on some PM sites day in and day out (I won't name names).

If things heat up in the mideast with Iran, etc, we could see a time where both the US dollar and gold/silver rise together for a short time in my opinion.


https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-06-...s-Billionaire-Paul-Tudor-Jones-Bloomberg.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-i-am-certainly-long-gold.html

 

[Johnnybravo300]

I've continued adding at these great prices and under $15 seems awesome. I had stopped buying pms for awhile to focus on getting my land paid off but it's not the time to stop buying yet. I figure either way I cant go wrong storing money away for later.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Gold at $1408.

 

[jim4silver]

Kind of uncommon that the US dollar and gold are both going higher at the same time. Hopefully silver joins in soon.

Dollar:
http://schrts.co/MChfFTIu


Gold:
http://schrts.co/AKbbyMCR


Silver:
http://schrts.co/gyqPqQje

 

[MotherOfGeeks]

I think the markets are about to catch a case of the Flu. I'm betting there will be some volatility for a while.