FreedomUIC
Bronze Member
Down .42 cents in the opening markets this evening. I hope it gets back to $26 or $27, I need to buy a bunch more before it starts backup again....
Thud
- Thread starter FreedomUIC
- Start date
Red James Cash
Banned
- Aug 20, 2009
- 12,824
- 7,899
- Detector(s) used
- Garret Master hunter Cx Plus
- Primary Interest:
- Other
let it drop,the more it drops the more you can buy.
Marchas45
Bronze Member
- Mar 22, 2009
- 2,046
- 381
- Detector(s) used
- Excalibur 1000, Garrett Scorpion.
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
A Great Stackers Dream, let it go down and BUY SOME MORE. $30.00 by the end of the week unless Wynter Benton steps up to the plate tomorrow and fulfills his pledge to make Silver rise big time. Lol
OP
OP
FreedomUIC
Bronze Member
- Thread starter
- #4
Gold is starting to tank as well, Down over $21 and silver is now down $.80 cents.
CubanHunter
Jr. Member
Well it seems I am going to get my Canadian silver antelopes ahead of what I expected
OP
OP
FreedomUIC
Bronze Member
- Thread starter
- #8
I am stacking for at least 15 more years for retirement, if necessary I will just cost average everything. My plan is to start with Gold with I hit 1000 oz of silver. I am almost 1/2 of the way
there and should be there by March of next year if I stay on schedule. My plan for Gold is to try and acquire at least 50 oz's of Gold in Gold coin not bullion. Once I get those two accomplished
I will feel alot better.
My projections for silver and gold in 15 years is as follows: Gold will be close to $2,200 and Silver should be topping $75.00 an oz. Both of these figures are baseline with fluctuations above and
below.
jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
- 3,662
- 495
You will see your listed PM prices in less than 3 years for sure, and most likely sometime next year. But my "predictions" always are too early, so maybe it will take a bit longer before silver really takes off. But one thing is for sure, the above ground supply of silver that is available for sale at any given time is very low in terms of dollar value. That article about the 5 million ounces of silver being moved stated those ounces represented 12% of all registered silver available through comex if I remember correctly. That would mean there is roughly 37 million ounces left. At today's value that is about $1.3 billion rounding up. That is a lot of $$$$$ for most anyone in the world, but not for the super wealthy or a hedge fund, etc.
My point being that some day (maybe it is already starting with the 5 million ounces being moved?) if/when physical silver is being demanded instead of paper alternatives, it will not take long for available silver ounces to be bought up fast by big money players. That day is coming, when who knows. I really don't think we will ever see average folks who aren't otherwise PM bugs run out and buy PMs unless it is long after we have broken 50. People who are starting to wake up to what is going on will be able to get into PMs at decent prices if they don't wait too long. I know a couple of non PM bugs who recently took my advice ( a few years later) and have moved a sizable chunk of their retirement funds into physical metals. They are happy now because they got in during the 26-28 range from a few months ago and are up a decent percentage for less than 6 months. Hopefully we won't drop back there otherwise they will be blaming me.
I cannot imagine how high the price of PMs will be in 15 years assuming all gov currencies remain fiat during that time. Will be interesting to find out.
Jim
Marchas45
Bronze Member
- Mar 22, 2009
- 2,046
- 381
- Detector(s) used
- Excalibur 1000, Garrett Scorpion.
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
I still say $45, $50 by the end of the year. Keep Stacking
TreasurePirate69
Hero Member
- Jan 20, 2012
- 589
- 196
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
I say $25 by the end of the year. Stop Stacking (for now).
As the economy improves and the European nightmare becomes just a bad dream (without really being fixed), I see us coming out of our "1970s funk". I expect a steady decline for the next 5 years. Our $49 silver last year was the peak just as $50 silver was the peak in 1980. From then on, it was a steady downhill slide until the next big emergency came about (which is now).
"But wait!" you say. "What about fiat currencies?" Well, Ron Paul was warning about Fiat Currencies as a young man back in 1971. In fact, part of the issue with inflation in the 1970s was because people were scared about fiat currencies. This is nothing new. Silver sat at $6 all while the threat of fiat currencies continued to loom. So what has really changed?
"But wait!" you say. "What about silver shortages?" Well, there were silver and gold shortages throughout history and yet we still keep finding more. Will we eventually run out? Definitely. Will it happen in the next 30 years? Maybe, maybe not.
"But wait!" you say. "What about endless printing by the Fed?" Well, the Fed and their European counterparts seem to be getting a pass on this one. People just want the problem fixed and appear to be willing to take one on the chin to make sure it happens. Normally, if a single country prints into oblivion then their currency tanks relative to all other currencies. But what if all countries got together and decided to inflate their currencies at the same time? I think in essence, this is what is actually happening. The world is pushing the giant "reset button". Don't get me wrong, there will be some inflation/fallout due to this. In fact, we've already seen some. But when it all dies down in 5 years (like it did back in the '70s), will we really be any worse for wear?
"But wait!" you say. "What about derivatives?" Well, this one is indeed scary. But since no one is really concerned about it too much should we really bank on it driving the price? People SHOULD be scared. But if the derivatives mountain doesn't collapse in the next 10 years then the price of silver will not be affected. If it DOES collapse then watch out! It really comes down to whether or not you think it will collapse anytime soon. With this one just remember that the earth should have been destroyed at least 1000 times by now. That doesn't mean that it won't get destroyed tomorrow. But it makes sense to maintain a healthy dose of optimism. As a famous man once said, "There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!". If it isn't derivatives it's something else. These ticking time bombs do go off from time to time. And when the smoke clears, the world just keeps on lumbering along.
"But wait!" you say. "What about the fiscal cliff?" Well, again, if this becomes reality then the price of silver will go up. But just like the Euro crisis, I can't see the US letting this actually become a serious problem. There is way too much at stake. The masses would literally break down the doors of Congress and have mass hangings in the streets if they refuse to cooperate and fix the problem. The politicians know this. So they will kick the can down the road again and offer partial solutions that will appease the people/market for a while longer. How much longer I don't know. But if it appeases the market for another 10 years then this one will fade from the silver investor's memory as well.
"But wait!" you say. "What about the inflation adjusted price of silver?" Well, I covered that one already in another thread.
"But wait!" you say. "What about the gold to silver ratio?" Well, I should cover that one too (and maybe I will), but suffice it to say that it was another notorious case of price manipulation that you really can't count on. For the ratio to make any sense whatsoever you need to know the "true" price of either silver or gold. Who's to say that the price of gold is correct? If the current price of gold should be $900, then the ratio doesn't have any meaning when applied to a $1700 gold price.
"But wait!" you say. "What about price manipulation?" Well, I've never been a conspiracy theorist. Although I see where someone could easily argue that prices could have been manipulated during the '90s, the reality is that prices can be manipulated either up or down. Who's to say that the $49 price we saw last year wasn't in fact the manipulation? People shout foul when the price is low but have no qualms when the price soars $20 in two months. It makes no sense to me. Is manipulation happening? I have no idea. The bottom line is that the price is the price. And the CFTC does not appear ready to crack down on any manipulation (if it even in fact exists). So if you are betting on some huge price change to come due to this aspect of the market changing then you are probably betting against the house. And we all know what happens when you do that.
"But wait!" you say. "Aren't you just some disgruntled silver bear?" Well, no, actually. I own a lot of silver and gold. I'm just worried that there are a lot of people out there blindly stacking right now because they read some silver blog that quotes mystical gold to silver ratios, inflation adjusted prices, and manipulation rumors. There were plenty of people doing the exact same thing in the early '80s while the price of silver steadily crashed back down to reality. Those people bought all the way down when they could have simply waited 5 years and picked silver up for a measly $6 an ounce. Many of them are only now breaking even. Most of them lost their shirts. I don't want to be one of those people. I intend to hold my silver long term which I believe is the best play at this time. I have added small amounts to my stash on the recent dips. But I do not advocate spending large sums of money just because the price of silver goes below $30 unless you have tons of money to spare/lose. You could be regretting it in 5 years. Then again, I may be the one with the regrets. One thing I will say.... if you are CONVINCED that the price of silver has nowhere to go but up then you are fooling yourself. There is no way that anyone could possibly know with 100% certainty where the price of silver is going. You should ask yourself why you think such things. Then try to figure out why, if these things are all indeed true, why doesn't the price of silver actually reflect those beliefs? Some guy with a blog could not magically know more about the future of gold and silver prices than the combined knowledge of the rest of the financial world. Believing as much is akin to believing that some guy living in a run down trailer in Florida can really create a device that can detect gold from miles away and is also willing to sell it to you for $2000.
"But wait!" you say. "Aren't you just some guy on the Internet who has no clue?" Well, yes, actually.
Last edited:
jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
- 3,662
- 495
I say $25 by the end of the year. Stop Stacking (for now).
As the economy improves...............
OK, there is where you lost me. I can respect your opinion, since none of us really know for certain where PMs will be in the future. But sometimes it is possible to make a valid prediction based on surrounding circumstances that while not 100% certain, can be 90%+ certain.
Any comparison of now to the 1970s is apples to oranges. We still had a manufacturing economy then, the national debt was only 2 Trillion back then (16 trillion now) and we didn't have so many folks on gov assistance like we do now. Basically we were a much stronger nation in terms of fiscal issues.
As far as someone reading a post on here and sinking their life savings into PMs without doing their own due diligence, I guess if that were to happen and PMs fell, it would be that person's own fault for simply taking anyone's advice blindly.
Further, if you look into how much physical gold and silver is being bought up now in large amounts by central banks and other large institutions, you can see that at some point down the road there will be shortages at these prices.
When bad things happen (like stock market crashes and such) they happen fast and without a warning. If we do face a currency problem down the road there will not be a public service announcement before hand giving people time to take care of things. Hopefully the good folks on here will have at least some PMs to protect themselves.
Gold and silver have been valued as money for thousands of years. In ALL past societies that used unbacked paper or non PM coin currency eventually such paper/non PM metal became worthless and a new backed currency took its place.
Maybe here in the US we will be the one nation/society in the history of the world where a fiat currency holds up forever and never loses any value (oops, we are too late for that since our dollar is worth only 2% of what it was in 1913 when the federal reserve was created).
PS I guess I should mention that the US has in the past had two other forms of currency that went bust (see Continental currency and greenbacks). Ever hear the phrase not worth a continental? Due to what happened to the continental currency the founders placed the clause into the Constitution about gold and silver being money (see Art. 1, §10).
Just my opinion.
Jim
Last edited:
Marchas45
Bronze Member
- Mar 22, 2009
- 2,046
- 381
- Detector(s) used
- Excalibur 1000, Garrett Scorpion.
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
Jim I wouldn't waste my time responding, we know what's coming but what surprises me is, he's stacking, WHY? and he has been buying on the dips like we are. But then again he says it's going down below the last low of $26.00 to $25.00 so now he's holding off.
O'Well it's his opinion but hell I'm buying tomorrow. Lol Have you read Jim Sinclair's new article?
Jim Sinclair: Cartel Shorts Are a Managed Spread Position, Banks Flipping to Naked Long Will Propel Gold to $12,400! | SilverDoctors.com
O'Well it's his opinion but hell I'm buying tomorrow. Lol Have you read Jim Sinclair's new article?
Jim Sinclair: Cartel Shorts Are a Managed Spread Position, Banks Flipping to Naked Long Will Propel Gold to $12,400! | SilverDoctors.com
jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
- 3,662
- 495
TreasurePirate69
Hero Member
- Jan 20, 2012
- 589
- 196
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
Yes. It is an apples to oranges comparison. But regardless of whether it is apples or oranges you are squeezing you still can end up with the same result: sweet, delicious juice. Two different problems can easily result in the same outcome. And we have also become much more accepting of debt. That's not a good thing. But it seems to be a reality. So 2 trillion vs 16 trillion is not that different in the eyes of the public.
Ugh... not this old argument again. You are using selective statistics. I should remind you that it is illogical to only include past failed societies when looking at fiat currencies. Note that there are many thriving current societies that are using fiat currencies. Hong Kong is a good example of how fiat currencies can work well. But I will give you a TRUE fact: ALL attempts to use silver or gold standards have ALWAYS failed. That is not selective statistics. That is a known fact. Fiat currencies are like guns. Both are very dangerous and powerful tools. And both can be easily abused. But to blame fiat currencies for the failure of societies is like blaming guns for shooting people. In both cases it takes either a government or a person to abuse the tool. Don't blame fiat currencies. Blame govenments for abusing fiat currencies. And while you're at it, give kudos to those govenments that have NOT abused their fiat currency.
Ugh... yet again with the standard sound bites. Why do YOU care what the dollar was worth in 1913? You weren't alive back then. Plus, the average salary back then was pennies per day. So the reality is that it really doesn't matter what the dollar is worth at any given time. What matters is the ratio of what the dollar can buy vs. what our pay and investments are worth. If those all balance out then we are fine. Of course, very high inflation changes this ratio quicker than what our pay and investments can keep up with. So we don't want that. But if the dollar is worth 1/1000 of a cent 1 million years from now, it won't affect you, me, or the people living during that time.
As an example to prove this point, imagine that the federal government decided tomorrow that it was going to lop off two zeros from our currency. But all prices and everyone's net worth would be adjusted accordingly. OH NO! The dollar is suddenly worth 100 times what it was the day before! Massive deflation has taken over! No... nothing has changed. Why? Because the actual VALUE of the currency as a whole has not changed. We've simply shifted around a few decimal points. And that is a similar effect to what your 2% argument has had. Yes, the dollar is worth less. But people have way more dollars than they did back then. Thus, it is a wash.
The US was not even considered an industrialized nation when the continental was created. So we were far from being the world's reserve currency during those two fiat currency attempts. Yes, our continued world reserve currency status is debatable. But I don't think this status will be lost in the next 10 years. And you see how that attempt to require a gold standard worked out. It failed, and for good reasons. If you don't know why we went off of the gold standard then it is very important to read up on it.
Let me make it very clear that I do not know how long the US dollar will last. Long term I am bullish on silver. However, my point is that if things don't completely collapse in the next 10 years like so many people think they will, then we may be headed back to sub $20 silver. The belief that silver is worth $50+ an ounce is based solely on fear. If those fears turn out to be unwarranted then you have to believe that the price of silver COULD fall significantly. I'm not disputing that the currency could collapse and silver could end up going to $100. I'm just wanting people to consider for themselves the likelihood of this truly happening. As I said before, the earth SHOULD have been destoyed 100 times by now. And yet... here we are.
Thanks for the lively discussion.
Last edited:
CubanHunter
Jr. Member
A voice of reason Thanks
4treasures
Greenie
- Dec 9, 2010
- 12
- 11
Holy crap, I feel like I'm back in school...in the best class ever.
Top Member Reactions
-
3342 -
1899 -
1872 -
1174 -
1093 -
874 -
830 -
829 -
827 -
784 -
778 -
535 -
504 -
482 -
430 -
E
415
-
415 -
397 -
396 -
391
