Silver Predictions?

[jim4silver]

Silver now $17.21; broke through yearly low; I'm holding off buying till $12.
Don....
PS: Now at $17.06 (freefall)
PPS: Ooops; $16.97 down 50 cents; an "E-ticket" ride downhill.

Good luck with that idea of buying at 12.

 

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[fistfulladirt]

Good luck with that idea of buying at 12.

Jim, didn't we say that @ $23?

 

[jim4silver]

Jim, didn't we say that @ $23?

Yes FFD you are correct. But there is a difference this time, in that we are at or below the cost of production. Many of us PM bugs watched with glee as silver almost broke thru 50 only to see it fall and get its a$$ handed to it ever since. But at some point the price gets so freakin' low it is actually cheaper to buy a refined beautiful silver coin than it costs to dig it up and process it into said coin. I think we are there and have been for a bit. That cannot go on indefinitely.

Having said that, $12 is so ridiculously low relative to costs of production that I find it hard to believe there will be metals at that price in physical form. Watching platinum and silver too of course this is just paper market forces with big $$$ pushing the price down for gains and perhaps other motives. But natural market forces will come to play eventually. Or said big $$$ will decide to let PMs rise like they did in 2010 to 2011 in silver.

PS I think though now a person should consider shorting the stock market via inverse etfs if this "correction" we've had the past few days gains steam. VIX has been pretty hot lately.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Peyton Manning]

come on interest rates go up and make me money

 

[pronghorn]

I'm predicting my silver stack will grow at this price! Where's Charlie?

 

[SilverFace]

come on interest rates go up and make me money

Its going to be quite interesting (no pun intended) when interest rates finally do rise. Regardless of what Yellen is saying now I think the Fed will delay rising interest rates as long as possible and instead reverse course with record amounts of QE. Then when interest rates finally do rise, who knows how much QE the Fed will be doing every month and how much debt the Fed will have on its balance sheet that it cant get rid of. All this ridiculous artificial stimulus Keynesian nonsense is an absolute disaster in the making. But for those of us patiently and prudently preparing for the inevitable, we will be the ones financially rewarded for our clear thinking and rational belief in sound money.

 

[jim4silver]

I have given up on trying to understand the COT numbers, but it is interesting that in this week's gold figures it shows the small specs loading up on short positions commercials still dumping more shorts, with the large specs apparently chilling out a bit. It would be interesting if the theory I read the other day is true. That is that the commercials are letting the large/small specs take it lower so they (the commercials) can spike it up when they are ready which will catch the specs in a bad way trying to cover to get out of the trade. They always say the commercials are the "smart money" such as bullion banks and such, so I don't see why they would be so wrong lately on direction with respect to their positions shown in the COT numbers. Only time will tell.

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - October 3, 2014

Jim

 

[Marchas45]

I believe we are going to have a turn around in the next few days. I also believe the price is very close to bottom and you better be ready, because when it spikes you are going to have a hard time buying when it does. here that freedom. LMAO


Commercials Betting On Big Dollar Downturn, October 03, 2014

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently been in one of the biggest blowoff moves we have seen in years. The lesson of the past blowoffs is that the downward slope out of the eventual top tends to symmetrically match the slope of the advance up into it.

This week’s chart shows us that the commercial traders of various currency futures contracts are already making a huge bet on a dollar decline. The indicator in the chart is one that I created several years ago by combining the commercial traders’ net position in multiple currency futures contracts into a single indicator. It does not include all of the currency related contracts which are now featured in the most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, because they do not all have the same lengthy and consistent history of reporting. This indicator combines the commercials’ net position in the euro, yen, pound, Mexican peso, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and US Dollar Index futures, each weighted according to the dollar value of each position.

The current reading is the highest in the history of this indicator, which dates back to the creation of the euro currency in 1999. That is another way of saying that the “smart money” commercial traders are making a huge bet that this uptrend in the dollar is going to reverse itself. Commercial traders are often early in adopting a lopsided position, but they are nearly always proven to be correct.

This same lopsided position is also apparent when we look at the commercials’ positions in the individual contracts. Here is a chart showing the commercials’ net position in just the Dollar Index futures:

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/commercials_betting_on_big_dollar_downturn/

 

[Peyton Manning]

the important signs in the economy are good ( interest low, jobs growing, spending up) so it will keep falling

 

[Mackaydon]

$16.83; this ride down in not over yet; still waiting for $12--then I'll just keeping buying as it goes lower. I can wait.
Don....

 

[jim4silver]

Goodbye to $16 handle (at least for today).

I think I had a breakthrough today- I went to the coin store and after looking at a few things left without buying any. I didn't have much to spend, but I can't remember the last time I left empty handed.


Jim

 

[Marchas45]

I still see it heading up Jim, it broke through the $17.30 trend line and hopefully heads up and through the next trend line of $17.80, we shall see. Keep Stacking

 

[billjustbill]

Many of us said the same @ $35. Silver's been in free fall ever since. Why lose money now, when it can go lower? The paper game can go on for a lot longer than we think.

Take a look and a listen to this....in view of "...longer than we think"... It's about "Cycles"..... By the way the fellow shows past "7 Year Cycles", I'd say you've got less than 11 months...



Bill

 

[billjustbill]

Yes FFD you are correct. But there is a difference this time, in that we are at or below the cost of production. Many of us PM bugs watched with glee as silver almost broke thru 50 only to see it fall and get its a$$ handed to it ever since. But at some point the price gets so freakin' low it is actually cheaper to buy a refined beautiful silver coin than it costs to dig it up and process it into said coin. I think we are there and have been for a bit. That cannot go on indefinitely.

Having said that, $12 is so ridiculously low relative to costs of production that I find it hard to believe there will be metals at that price in physical form. Watching platinum and silver too of course this is just paper market forces with big $$$ pushing the price down for gains and perhaps other motives. But natural market forces will come to play eventually. Or said big $$$ will decide to let PMs rise like they did in 2010 to 2011 in silver.

PS I think though now a person should consider shorting the stock market via inverse etfs if this "correction" we've had the past few days gains steam. VIX has been pretty hot lately.

Just my opinion.

Jim

Jim, somewhere I read that the actual production cost for silver is right at $10.... I read that in the last week.

Sorry for the blurry reference, I'm recovering from "Post Traumatic Garage Sale Syndrome" of having our own garage sale....

Bill

 

[fistfulladirt]

One is lead to believe that production costs are all over the place. Soon it will be mined at no cost

 

[skeeterd]

I would think that production costs can vary widely from mine to mine. Where the mine is located, operating capital and whether or not silver is the main focus of the mine or a byproduct probably has huge effects on production costs.