Local store report

Here is a first. One of my local stores (a big one) is OUT OF SILVER (except for a few individual very expensive semi numi and numi pieces AND some junk silver at $6 over melt!). Who would of thought with silver at $14 or so I would be paying nearly $20 for JUNK SILVER- I'm not buying at that price. So much for waiting to buy I suppose. Glad I have been DCA all along and have lots of cool $h!t I got at $16 to $18 out the door so to speak over the past year or so. I couldn't even buy much of that stuff today unless I went to ebay and paid out the a$$.

They have no silver ASEs, Maples, private bars/rounds, etc. I have dealt with this store since 2005 (the birth of my silver/gold bug self) and this has NEVER happened that I recall. Even last week they had some ASEs and Canadian Wildlife coins available at marked up premiums. Guy I spoke to said they should have some new stuff in 2 weeks or so maybe. Said I could pay today and place an order and they would "guarantee" I would get the stuff in 4 to 8 weeks depending on what I wanted. I said no thanks.

PS There are a few stores locally that do have some bullion, but at premiums that are a buck or so higher per ounce than this store I am referring to above ($5 to $5.50 per ounce for ASEs). These stores are most likely selling their own private stash inventory in hopes of ordering new stuff cheaper from the wholesalers, then wait for delivery. I know one local dealer that has a large stock of inventory that he kept accumulating over the past year constantly thinking prices would go up (this dealer is more bullish than Marchas and me combined). Since he was wrong that silver would rise this year, he told me he is going to sell the stuff now and buy new stuff cheaper, instead of holding the inventory waiting for prices to rise, and thus not having any cash flow and thus no profits. The only downside is, will he get his new inventory as he expects in several weeks when the orders come in? Probably yes, but who knows? He said the wholesalers have ALWAYS delivered in the past, although the delivery times could take longer than they promised.

We'll have to wait and see.

Jim
 

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I was able to talk to one of my local guys today that I hadn't spoken to in a few weeks, and he said new orders for many items are being told Oct/Nov for delivery from wholesalers who are taking orders now. This dealer said he has some Eagles and Maples coming in soon, but those were ordered a while ago. He said the national wholesalers are out of many types of bullion.

This guy has been in the business since the 80's and said he has never seen delivery times and availability (or lack thereof) like it is now. I bought some old holiday/art bars the 70s and 80s for $17. Got a few of my fav's like the ones I posted below. These ebay well but I may keep them in my own collection. I had a decent collection of them in the past that I sold when I needed the cash back when silver was in the $30's (LOL!). Some dealers think of these as junky but they are hot on ebay, some going for 2 to 5 multiples of melt. I buy them whenever I can if I can get them for the same price as new generic. They are often toned heavily but it adds to the character. I like them as "art" even better than my US junk silver (with the exception of BU rolls) if you can believe that.

Fathers Day 1973 Silver Bar 1 Oz. 999 Fine Silver Mother Lode Hucky

http://numismaclub.com/imgs/a/c/m/x...ristmas_silver_art_bar_a6050_1_thumb2_lgw.jpg

1975 Easter Silver Bar 1oz. 999 Fine Silver Bullion Investment Grade Es74


Jim
 

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On the issue of supply, etc.

Was talking today to one of my smaller coin dealer friends I hadn't spoken to in a while. This guy used to own a coin store years ago and still owns a small auction co. and deals in PMs too. Anyway, I was asking if he thought there really was a shortage across the boards or just retail back log. He has a good contact in the mining business who told him that in some instances mines now are holding back metal due to lower prices, and many smaller operations are shuttering and laying off miners- this includes smaller copper mines where silver is a byproduct. This is because copper is very low in price and has been, just like silver. He also said he has heard from his national wholesalers that now even 100 oz bars are starting to dry up at the wholesale level (which is extremely rare for 100 oz bars) and premiums are going up quite a bit. He thinks even if silver drops a bit lower in the near future, the price of physical silver won't change a bit from where it is now, and might even go up if the supply issues persist. This particular individual is not a BS'er type of guy and I basically have to interrogate him to get answers to my questions. I consider him a reliable source of info on wholesale/supply type stuff, unlike some of the pundit guru guys I read online.

Just a FWIW post.

Will be interesting to see how it unfolds over the next couple of months. My local stores still get inventory here and there on generic, but it sells out within an hour or two after it arrives. ASEs and Maples are all out except slabbed expensive pieces at my 2 main stores.



Jim
 

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This can be filed in the FWIW drawer, but the amazingly high and ridiculous premiums on junk silver (US pre 65 90%) are falling pretty fast at the wholesale level over the past couple of days. I don't know why specifically. They were rising so fast I knew that trend could not continue. That is why I have been posting telling folks to avoid such coins unless you get them cheap! Even Apmex has had a 90% sale. That should be a red flag for lower premiums (and maybe prices).

At some point when prices/supply stabilize the junk silver will get back to where it has been (low premiums- sometimes in the past could be bought at melt). The crazy high premiums on ASE's are still with us right now though. They will probably drop again too at some point.


EDIT: Just saw Apmex has a 19.97 sale on 2015 Eagles, any amount. Ruh- Roh (in Scooby Doo voice), I smell a smackdown coming. From memory there seems to be a high correlation to smack downs and Apmex sales like this (not saying causation but correlation).

Just my opinion.

Jim
 

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EDIT: Just saw Apmex has a 19.97 sale on 2015 Eagles, any amount. Ruh- Roh (in Scooby Doo voice), I smell a smackdown coming. From memory there seems to be a high correlation to smack downs and Apmex sales like this (not saying causation but correlation).

Jim,

I was talking with a collector/dealer that sells at one of the local flea markets. He said that the 2015 Eagles may be one of the years where a low/lower amount than the norm is minted; making it also a future collectible and a bit more valuable.

Have you heard of the 2015 Eagles being projected as low minted in numbers?

Thanks,
Bill
 

billjustbill said:
EDIT: Just saw Apmex has a 19.97 sale on 2015 Eagles, any amount. Ruh- Roh (in Scooby Doo voice), I smell a smackdown coming. From memory there seems to be a high correlation to smack downs and Apmex sales like this (not saying causation but correlation).

Jim,

I was talking with a collector/dealer that sells at one of the local flea markets. He said that the 2015 Eagles may be one of the years where a low/lower amount than the norm is minted; making it also a future collectible and a bit more valuable.

Have you heard of the 2015 Eagles being projected as low minted in numbers?

Thanks,
Bill
Click to expand...


Bill,

I think 2015 will be a higher than average year. Although there have been a few stoppages, they have minted many of these from what I remember reading throughout the year. But I still think they are a great coin if you can get them at decent premiums.

Jim
 

One of my local guys called today and said he had some prospectors for $1.50 over, so of course I had to go and get them. I saw the store had full silver inventory. Even ASE premiums have dropped to $3 over spot, exactly where we were for a long time. Maple premiums are now the same as ASE's. I have never seen that, but it is only because their supply has been limited probably more than ASE's.

I also got a 2004 Kookaburra for $21, and another 1973 Barbados proof set for melt (now I have 3 of these same sets :tongue3:). The Neptune coin (sterling silver) in the set is amazing!! I can't resist when I can get the set at melt.


Coins Catalog - Barbados, 10 dollars, KM#17a / Numismatics with Global Coins

Jim
 

Grabbed some more US Commem silver dollars today. Paid $15.50 each, all with boxes and COA's. Today's lucky finds in part: US Marine Corps Proof dollar (I love these!), Christopher Columbus UNC dollar with unc non-silver half dollar set, Ben Franklin Scientist Proof and Ben Franklin Founding Fathers Proof, Botanical Gardens Proof, and more.

At these prices I would spend my entire PM stash cash on these and not worry. Paying a bit more than ASEs per ounce of pure silver, but have a low mintage US coin with the box and COAs for much less than greysheet. I am at the point though where I won't touch the real common ones like Statute of Liberty, Constitution, Korean War, etc. But even those are a decent deal at these price levels but I only have so much to spend.

I have watched the premiums on these over the past year or so and they don't seem to be tied to the actual price of silver very much. Some premiums have gone way up over the past year even though silver has dropped (the Robert Kennedy Proof is one). I have heard that such sudden increases in premiums is often due to "promotions" on the various commem being done by national sellers, and they need a bunch to sell in the "promotion" so they are willing to pay more than at some other point in time.

Here are a couple examples:

http://moderncommemoratives.com/2006-benjamin-franklin-silver-dollar/

http://moderncommemoratives.com/1997-botanic-garden-silver-dollar/

Jim
 

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