Many people think of PMs as an investment like stocks, etc. That is wrong thinking, especially in today's world. They are better thought of as an insurance of sorts against other investments and foolish policies of world governments. People can trade and flip PMs but the premium spread will make that hard to profit except when the market is moving much in a particular direction. Pros can make $$$ flipping ETFs or futures but that is hard for average folks to do profitably.
Many of the past catalysts don't seem to work in predicting PM price movements because the world has changed much since gold and silver were considered money. There are also mechanisms today that siphon off some physical demand for gold such as ETFs, ETNs, etc. These financial vehicles didn't exist too long ago. Plus the fact many folks don't even carry cash anymore and use cards to pay for everything. Those like this won't even think of PMs except for jewelry, and even then many younger folks today opt for wedding rings and other jewelry made out of things other than gold and platinum. So don't expect the average man on the street to be the cause for PMs to rise. He may take part in the buying later on, but definitely won't be in at the start of any move.
But that doesn't mean gold (and silver) won't be important down the road. One mistake I used to make is to think that other wiser investors, speculators, etc, "knew" something I didn't about PMs. Or that somehow there is knowledge and wisdom that some have and some don't among the general population. When in reality nobody really knows anything about where markets are headed. Some make correct educated guesses and some make correct flips of the coin, the rest are wrong or too early in their calls, etc.
What can't be denied is that those with much wealth will try to preserve it as much as possible if/when the next financial calamity, etc hits. It is said the the reasons for the 2008 problems still exist and are actually worse than in 2008, but you won't know that looking at the media reports each day. Emerging markets are hurting as their currencies and such are dropping in many places. These places will and can affect the rest of the world if they starting defaulting, etc.
Sooner or later there will be another 2008 but this won't be papered over like the last one. As most asset prices move in cyclical fashion over time, so will PM prices. PMs and some other commodities are about the only assets that haven't risen or been inflated over the past 7 years or so like so much else has.
In the 2008 crash PMs fell too initially but remember PMs had been moving up nicely since 2001 or so, so there were profits to pull to pay for stock, etc paper loses. Today PMs are hated my most all, so there will not be as many holders who need to sell in the next crash other than perhaps PM bugs, etc. Much different landscape than 2008.
Although I wouldn't base my trades on Nostradamus, there is an interesting quatrain of his that I think one day will come to fruition. Remember, Nostradamus made some correct calls during his own lifetime so there is at least a chance this one will be true at some point. Here it is century 8, quatrain 38:
The copies of gold and silver inflated
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated
All scrips and bonds will be wiped out.
I like the "imitations of gold and silver inflated". Mmmm what could that be today?
Here is what central banks have been doing and generally they know a bit more than the common man on the street, you would think.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonc...uying-spree-over-dollar-worries/#2fc1e5d61fc2
