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How low will silver go?

Metal detecting? Dirt fishing? Jeeze, what a waste of time......digging holes hoping to find 'The Big One'! (In my 27th yr.......many neat finds. Found a girl's high school gold class ring, hunted her down, and returned it 32 years after she lost it. There are other interesting items found, maybe later.)
 

As we watch silver drop lower and lower I have to say I don't think it will go too low. My reason is unscientific. I have finally reached the point where my silver stack is almost all what I would call semi numis stuff (Kooks, Pandas, Koalas, etc). The last run up into the $18's I converted what "bullion" I had left into cool stuff that was only a buck or two per ounce over what I got for the stuff I traded. For example yesterday I nabbed ten 2002 silver Libertads for $19.00 per coin (some had NO milkspots, the others had just a few light ones - these coins are notorious for spots), these coins go for $40+ even with milk spots sometimes, etc.

If the market stays below $20 ish or drops, my semi numis stuff will retain its value or even go up a bit. However, if silver finally takes off, my semi numis stuff will start to peter out premium wise once we get into the high 20's or so. At that point I would be better with generic bullion (if say silver goes to $50).

Although my stash will go up along with silver's price should silver go to $50+, it would be better for me to be in generic right now IF I knew silver was about to hit $50+ because I could get more ounces than I have (not too much though since I get good deals on my semi numis stuff).

Thus, based on my past successful inverse indicator status, silver is about to go to $50+ soon. Kind of like if I had sold off all my silver, then the price would go to $100+ really soon.

Jim
 

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Looks like I picked the right time to sell a bunch of silver scrap a couple weeks ago. Shes 'a fallin!
 

WarBaby said:
Looks like I picked the right time to sell a bunch of silver scrap a couple weeks ago. Shes 'a fallin!
Click to expand...

LOL, I always pick the wrong times to sell. Every time I do, the price shoots up for weeks after. So now I just bury it all :tchest:
 

Heavy trend to get into the 15's; about time to dust off my "purchase silver checkbook"--though will still hold off till even lower prices.
Don....
 

I've followed and invested in silver since 1979, followed it to $50 an ounce, and held on to the physical silver I had on hand until the divorce took it all away.

One of my Chinese co-workers in 1981 told me "Waja, we like you, we follow you and do the opposite".

I can pick a time to buy, and it always tanks.

I'm holding pat until I'm 99 and will sell then :)
 

DeepseekerADS said:
I've followed and invested in silver since 1979, followed it to $50 an ounce, and held on to the physical silver I had on hand until the divorce took it all away.

One of my Chinese co-workers in 1981 told me "Waja, we like you, we follow you and do the opposite".

I can pick a time to buy, and it always tanks.

I'm holding pat until I'm 99 and will sell then :)
Click to expand...

Yr talking about me right? lol
GL in the future.
 

DeepseekerADS said:
I'm holding pat until I'm 99 and will sell then :)
Click to expand...

That will get you a nice walker. Sell sooner while you can still get around. My wife and I are already talking about someplace to go next year. My wife went to Japan this year and I stayed home and did chores.
 

I think we are headed to a $15 handle soon. Glad I dumped all my non cool stuff (non semi numis) back near $18+ level. My local stores have lower premiums than I have seen in years. One online store has a sale for 29 cents over spot for generic bullion.

It seems that cryptos have stolen PM's thunder. I am starting to think PM's will never come back to their old "glory days". Now that I feel really bearish the price could start to up since I have been an inverse indicator (when calling for bullish moves). My bearish calls have been better but that's not hard with silver these days.

Maybe if/when cryptos crash or get hacked, and the stock market falls, and WW3 breaks out, and aliens come to earth, etc etc, PM's will go up up up.

Jim
 

jim4silver said:
Maybe if/when cryptos crash or get hacked, and the stock market falls, and WW3 breaks out, and aliens come to earth, etc etc, PM's will go up up up.

Jim
Click to expand...

Cryptos Crash - Don't think so, they're just not that relevant, yet!

Stock Market Drop - Likely, we're over due for a correction, or more.

WW3 - Probably more likely than I would care to think (Especially with the Pillsbury Doh-Boy, The Bare-chested Bronco, and our own Cheeto Jesus, front and center).

Aliens - Come On, Jim; You know they're already here........
 

I think i did pretty good on my silver. I sold at 27 times face back when gold was almost 2k per ounce. I may have to start buying silver again.
 

Take a look at silver's chart. Looks like total crap. Some pundits say that is when you should buy. I am thinking we are going to low $15s or even lower. If we ever get a stock correction PM's will tank further, if we use the 2008 era stock crash as a guide. There is no logical reason PM's will go up if the stocks tank. When stocks tank those folks go to cash first generally speaking.

I am still buying semi numis stuff I like when I get it real cheap. I am going to look at some Oz series 1 lunars today (my favorite coin series) but I know they won't be "cheap" unfortunately. Also here is the weekly chart for more perspective. If we get a weekly number below the Dec 2016 low that would confirm to me 100% we are dropping below $15 again.


$SILVER - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p03765819215
 

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Looking at the chart, I am going to say near term a key point would be the $16.30-ish or so area. If we break thru that convincingly then maybe all is well. If we get to that point and drop down then the beatings will continue.
 

jim4silver said:
Looking at the chart, I am going to say near term a key point would be the $16.30-ish or so area. If we break thru that convincingly then maybe all is well. If we get to that point and drop down then the beatings will continue.
Click to expand...


Right now the battle is at the price I mentioned the other day. Which side will win?

silver.gif
 

The last five year trend for silver has been terrible; the last three year chart is nearly flat. Unless you have been an asute day trader, I don't know how a silver investor could have made any substantial return in at least the last three years. What then will change the tide? What will push to market substantially lower or higher? I sure don't know. But I'm getting older waiting for 12; that is most certain.
Don...
 

Mackaydon said:
The last five year trend for silver has been terrible; the last three year chart is nearly flat. Unless you have been an asute day trader, I don't know how a silver investor could have made any substantial return in at least the last three years. What then will change the tide? What will push to market substantially lower or higher? I sure don't know. But I'm getting older waiting for 12; that is most certain.
Don...
Click to expand...


I was able to make money during the past few years acting more as a coin dealer than a "stacker". I found local and out of down dealers that will sell me certain things cheap enough I could profit selling them to others. My "specialty" is foreign bullion (and some silver foreign coins).

From doing my own research over the years I've learned much and I can say with some confidence I know more about foreign bullion than anyone I've met in person, at my local stores or while doing local coin shows (that isn't something worth bragging about just pointing it out). I would rather have such knowledge of old US type coins but the dealers know about that stuff very well too and I probably wouldn't have gotten the same deals on that.

It pays sometimes to know about stuff nobody else cares about or knows much about. My favorite coin when I find it is the 1991 type 2 libertad. I can usually find a few (or more) each year for $2-$4 over spot (my normal libertad cost) and most are unaware of there being a Type 2 because they look so similar to the normal 1991. I only have 1 local guy that knows what those are, and he is the one I sell to sometimes when I get them. Once got over a half a roll of them in one purchase from a local store. Once got a full roll of 1998 libertads too but haven't seen those since.

http://www.apmex.com/product/58872/1991-mexico-1-oz-silver-libertad-bu-type-2
 

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