Exciting times ahead for PMs

J

jim4silver

Silver Member
Apr 15, 2008
3,662
495
Exciting times ahead for PM's

With everything going on in the world today, it is hard to imagine that PM prices would be dropping again but they are. Instead of being sad about it though, we should be happy. It never seems like you can have enough PM's to feel comfort from what might be on the world financial horizon, but with the PM's staying cheap for now it means one can buy more, cheaper.

I believe we could see them drop silver to below the low from last summer. If that happens it will happen fast and I don't think last long. Regarding physical metals the cost of production will matter over time, unlike with paper PM's that can be created out of thin air. Doesn't seem likely the cost of fuel, mining equipment and workers' wages will be dropping in the next few years either.

From what I have been seeing in the news, my gut tells me Russia isn't going to stop at Crimea. I think something will happen where they will move into eastern Ukraine. So far the world powers don't seem too upset, but I think they will be if Russia takes more than they have. I read today that they have amassed 100K troops at the border with tanks, planes, etc. I don't think they would do this for show so to speak.

As far as palladium goes, remember Russia produces around 40% of the world supply. And about 40% comes from South Africa and they are having some strikes that have been going on for awhile and may continue. I don't plan to buy any of this since I think silver is better long term, but it seems like a no brainer mid to long term if world tensions stay heated, which they should. However, if they ever come up with a viable cheaper substitute metal for gas auto emission control palladium would sink super fast.

Check out this alleged attempted false flag in Turkey. Things really seem to be heating up.

Here Is The YouTube "Start A False Flag War With Syria" Leaked Recording That Erdogan Wanted Banned | Zero Hedge


On the Russian story.

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-claims-100-000-russian-troops-near-border-151112283.html



All my opinion.

Jim
 

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I agree Jim...the pot is definitely moving from simmer to boil.....hopefully calm heads prevail but who knows these days! Definitely take advantage of the low prices.
 

Question Jim, do you have a sell price that you would employ at the top of a silver spike? If so who
is the buyer? What I'm asking is can you liquidate before prices dive again? Thanks.

I'm interested in the nuts and bolts of selling PMs.
 

lastleg said:
Question Jim, do you have a sell price that you would employ at the top of a silver spike? If so who
is the buyer? What I'm asking is can you liquidate before prices dive again? Thanks.

I'm interested in the nuts and bolts of selling PMs.
Click to expand...


I don't really understand your question. Any time I sell it will be to a coin dealer or perhaps private individual (friend or acquaintance). I don't plan on selling my physical metals ever unless I have a financial hardship of some kind. I will trade in leveraged ETF PM shares that I will buy and sell for profit, once silver gets moving again (either up or down), rather moving just a few points here and there.

I would not try to time the market and sell physical here at 19.60 or so and try to buy back lower. That would be crazy to attempt. You never know what could happen overnight that would cause a huge spike in metals the next morning (WW3, etc).

Don't listen to the idiot$ who say "you can't eat gold/silver" to try and dissuade you from holding gold/silver. You cannot eat fiat money, stock certificates or T bonds either, theoretically.


Just my opinion.

Jim
 

More info for the old Noggn .Thanks
 

So you can't foresee a time when you would turn metal into paper in order to survive? Also do you believe
the US will be forced by China to return to metal currency?
 

I wouldnt believe to much news from mainstream media.In case you dont know a bill was passed not to long ago to make B.S.propaganda fully legal for the gooberment and media to use.

NATO Exploits Phantom Russian Troop Build-up to Call for Militarizing Eastern Europe

Western observers find no evidence of military build-up on Russia’s border with Ukraine

Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
April 1, 2014

NATO continues to insist Russia is massing troops on the border of Ukraine despite a lack of evidence. The alliance will now use the phantom military build-up to increase its presence in Eastern Europe.



CNN, a documented propaganda asset of the Army’s Fourth Psychological Operations Group, insists Russia’s phantom troops will invade this weekend.
CNN AND PSYOPS » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names

“Unfortunately, I cannot confirm that Russia is withdrawing its troops. This is not what we are seeing,” said NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen as 28 alliance members convened in Brussels.
NATO suspends cooperation with Russia over Ukraine crisis | Reuters

Reuters reports today:

Diplomats said the ministers would consider options ranging from stepped-up military exercises and sending more forces to eastern member states to the permanent basing of alliance forces in those countries – a step Moscow would view as provocative.

The NATO boss said the alliance may soon station forces permanently in the former Soviet Baltic states. “We are now considering all options to enhance our collective defense, including… further development of our defense plans, enhanced exercises and also appropriate deployments,” Rasmussen said.

Rasmussen said last week the phantom Russian threat is a “game-changer” for the alliance. “We live in a different world than we did less than a month ago,” he said. “I am the first to stress that Europe must do more.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/27/world/europe/europe-begins-to-rethink-cuts.html?_r=0

The call for militarization along Russia’s western border and an escalation of the conflict was hailed by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. He said he would welcome “some more prominent NATO presence in Poland.”

A vote by the people of Crimea to secede from Ukraine after a State Department backed coup placed ultra-nationalists in power in Kyiv provided NATO with a pretext for increased military air patrols over the Baltic states and conduct training exercises with the Polish air force.

The United States and Britain have used the threat of a “resurgent Russia” to call for more military spending by European Union member states, many plagued by serious economic ills. “Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner,” declared Philip M. Breedlove, the American commander of NATO, during a meeting in Brussels of the globalist German Marshall Fund.
» Mr. Yatsenyuk Goes to Washington Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

“It’s still very difficult for governments to sell the idea that social spending on health and education is less important than defense, especially in Western Europe,” explained Xenia Dormandy, a former American diplomat at Chatham House. NATO, the United States, and the EU have escalated their rhetoric to exaggerate the Russian threat.

The Chatham House is a British think tank operating like the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institute in the United States. Corporate members include Goldman Sachs International, Morgan Stanley, Lockheed Martin, Bloomberg, GlaxoSmithKline, Coca-Cola, and other transnational giants and banker operations.

Multiple Sources Confirm No Troop Build-up On Border

On Sunday Infowars.com reported that the Pentagon, NBC News and Russian media have all confirmed Russia is not massing troops on the border of Ukraine. NATO made the claim after junta ambassador to the U.S. Olexander Motsyk said there were about 100,000 troops amassed at the Ukraine border.
» House Intel Boss: Putin Looking to Invade Eastern Europe Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

“Western observers have found no evidence of a military build-up along Russia’s border with Ukraine, the Russian foreign ministry said on its website Friday,” The Wall Street Journal reported last week. “The statement from Russia’s foreign ministry referred to inspections by Ukrainian and Western observers as well as survey flights by German and U.S. planes over the border territory, all of which, it said, found no evidence of military escalation.”
No Evidence Of Russian Military Build-Up On Ukraine Border Says Moscow - WSJ.com

This article was posted: Tuesday, April 1, 2014 at 9:53 am
 

crhstreetwalker said:
Can you source this? Thanks.
Click to expand...

I sourced it, started a thread about it last year. You really should look it up. Easy enough to find.

By the By, Good post Jim. And thanks Red for your input.
 

The non mainstream "media" can be just as deceitful or incorrect in their calls as the mainstream media in some cases. I won't say which sites I am referring to, but there are some sites PM holders and contrarians like to refer to and quote as the truth that post more crap (that never ever comes true) than even the mainstream media.

Keep track of the "predictions" and revelations these sites put forth and see how many come true. After a year or so you will know which ones are worth following.


Just my opinion.

Jim
 

CLOSED

Hey Jim I'm back, finally got over selling some of my PM's for taxes. Lol Now I'm buying more than ever to catch up. Lol

Check out the video and make sure you read the description. Instead of selling some Silver, I'm giving it away. Lol Keep Stacking

P.S. Jim the GOFO Rate is going negative again, so prices are going to be heading up if that continues. We will know in a couple of days.

 

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This is definitely heating up and going to get hotter. In theory should help PM's, but if the major stock markets take a dump it might pull the PM's down for a very brief time as well. By the time it is all over, the Ukraine will be much different as far as ruling party, boundaries, etc.

Looks like those in power now in Kiev hold to their "red lines" and/or threats about as much as our leaders do.

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-protest-deadline-expires-856/

PS S & P looks ready to break through support soon. Still waiting. My ETF is finally in the black this morning but you never know how long it will last. Hopefully soon add to positions. JP Morgan had bad dissappointing this morning. How in the hell can THEY have bad numbers if they are controlling the massive silver shorts as some allege?

All my opinion.

Jim
 

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Looks like we're getting close to dropping below $19. It figures since I bought a little yesterday. I hope we do drop as low as it can go because I want to not only get some more metal, but grab some AGQ (2X leveraged silver bull ETF). There is a 3X silver ETN called USLV, but I am not as familiar with it but will be soon.

The key is to keep stacking metal AND create more paper so as to buy more metal. We have coming one of the greatest (not in a good way) transfers of wealth coming in the next year(s). If you only have a few (hundred) ounces of silver and that's all is it really going to be enough?

Don't listen to those who blindly say paper is worthless and such. It will be someday, but until then it is still king in a sense. Think the 80/20 rule, 80% of your investment money in hard assets and 20% placed in leveraged paper bets (not futures, but ETF's and such, with limited downside). Anyone who is 100% in metals will find themselves in a quandary when silver hits 50, 60, etc and they want to take some profits. Let's say they do sell, then silver goes to 100 and much of their metals are gone, what to do then? Most will then feel like they are missing the boat and will buy more metal at higher prices. Not a good way to max out profits.

Better to extract profits from paper trades then use those profits to buy metals which should never be sold (at least not in the next 10 years or more). Of course if you have a job or business that provides you with a fairly constant stream of excess income then no need to play the paper. Unfortunately, most of us (at least myself) don't have that and can only buy so much at a time.

I am just saying this because I lost over 2 years of possible profits blindly loading money into PM's (actually would lose money if I sold some of it now) because I believed a couple of PM pundits without question.

All my opinion.

Jim
 

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Jim,

I always enjoy reading your posts and have generally found them to be very logical, well-considered, and well-stated.

This last post, however, I find to be quite the opposite and, quite frankly, I couldn't disagree with you more.

"We have coming one of the greatest (not in a good way) transfers of wealth coming in the next year(s). If you only have a few (hundred) ounces of silver and that's all is it really going to be enough?"

Will there be a bit of a "Come to Jesus", so to speak? There's no doubt in my mind that there will be. The affects of out-of-control government program spending, economic bail-out costs and efforts to keep inflation artificially low will ultimately come home to roost. Inflationary pressure is coming, and it will have a negative affect on the economy. But, in my opinion, it's very unlikely the result will be anywhere near the magnitude that you suggest. As long as the US and world economies continue to expand (and there's still plenty of room for expansion), a true economic SHTF event just isn't going to happen.

There's many, many people betting long-term on economic expansion (effectively betting against you) and a lot of these guys are not, as some like to say, the SHEEPLE type. My point here, is that your views are clearly in the minority.

"Think the 80/20 rule, 80% of your investment money in hard assets and 20% placed in leveraged paper bets (not futures, but ETF's and such, with limited downside)."

Again, I couldn't disagree with you more. A well-balanced investment philosophy, with allocations to cash, stocks, bonds, and hard assets (real estate, PMs, etc..) has always, in the long run, been the most prudent approach, and that's not going to change. A well-considered allocation will very effectively hedge against just about any foreseen event. That's not to say that someone taking a gamble with an extreme position (say 100% in stocks or 100% in PMs) might not get lucky with timing and hit a home run, but over the long-term, they will end up being the loser. I do like precious metals, but, again, as part of a balanced investment approach.

Say the sky does fall, there's certainly no guarantee that PMs will be answer. Diversify.

For what it's worth, I'm betting long-term on US economic expansion, but hedging my bet with a fair allocation to cash, and, as always, some PMs. I'm expecting a correction within the next year, or so (maybe sooner), but I also see (as has ALWAYS been the case) a subsequent recovery. True, the past is no absolute basis for predicting the future, but that's my bet.

Jim, I sincerely hope, for your sake, that you're hedging your bets, and truly limiting your downside (which includes opportunity cost - when the stock market does take off again, you've got to have skin in the game to benefit).

I'm not trying to be confrontational, but I think that suggesting an 80% allocation to hard assets smacks of someone that's reading too many one-sided opinions. I actually come here, in part, to read opinions counter to my own, which helps me keep (at least try to keep) a balanced perspective.

I know that these opinions will be in the minority in a Precious Metals forum, but that's all they are, my opinions.

Regards,

TCK
 

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TheCoinKid said:
Jim,

I always enjoy reading your posts and have generally found them to be very logical, well-considered, and well-stated.

This last post, however, I find to be quite the opposite and, quite frankly, I couldn't disagree with you more.

"We have coming one of the greatest (not in a good way) transfers of wealth coming in the next year(s). If you only have a few (hundred) ounces of silver and that's all is it really going to be enough?"

Will there be a bit of a "Come to Jesus", so to speak? There's no doubt in my mind that there will be. The affects of out-of-control government program spending, economic bail-out costs and efforts to keep inflation artificially low will ultimately come home to roost. Inflationary pressure is coming, and it will have a negative affect on the economy. But, in my opinion, it's very unlikely the result will be anywhere near the magnitude that you suggest. As long as the US and world economies continue to expand (and there's still plenty of room for expansion), a true economic SHTF event just isn't going to happen.

There's many, many people betting long-term on economic expansion (effectively betting against you) and a lot of these guys are not, as some like to say, the SHEEPLE type. My point here, is that your views are clearly in the minority.

"Think the 80/20 rule, 80% of your investment money in hard assets and 20% placed in leveraged paper bets (not futures, but ETF's and such, with limited downside)."

Again, I couldn't disagree with you more. A well-balanced investment philosophy, with allocations to cash, stocks, bonds, and hard assets (real estate, PMs, etc..) has always, in the long run, been the most prudent approach, and that's not going to change. A well-considered allocation will very effectively hedge against just about any foreseen event. That's not to say that someone taking a gamble with an extreme position (say 100% in stocks or 100% in PMs) might not get lucky with timing and hit a home run, but over the long-term, they will end up being the loser. I do like precious metals, but, again, as part of a balanced investment approach.

Say the sky does fall, there's certainly no guarantee that PMs will be answer. Diversify.

For what it's worth, I'm betting long-term on US economic expansion, but hedging my bet with a fair allocation to cash, and, as always, some PMs. I'm expecting a correction within the next year, or so (maybe sooner), but I also see (as has ALWAYS been the case) a subsequent recovery. True, the past is no absolute basis for predicting the future, but that's my bet.

Jim, I sincerely hope, for your sake, that you're hedging your bets, and truly limiting your downside (which includes opportunity cost - when the stock market does take off again, you've got to have skin in the game to benefit).

I'm not trying to be confrontational, but I think that suggesting an 80% allocation to hard assets smacks of someone that's reading too many one-sided opinions. I actually come here, in part, to read opinions counter to my own, which helps me keep (at least try to keep) a balanced perspective.

I know that these opinions will be in the minority in a Precious Metals forum, but that's all they are, my opinions.

Regards,

TCK
Click to expand...


I used to be 100% in metals, thus I have diversified :). I respect your opinion and yes it is definitely in the majority.

The fact that my views are in the minority though tells me I may be on the right track. Generally the masses are left unaware when large, generational type changes occur (depression, currency devaluations, etc). If you study history you will see that empires and such don't stay No. 1 forever. In just the past 5 years MAJOR changes have taken place that mostly are not covered in the mainstream media. For example, there now exists many bilateral agreements in various countries to transact business in their own respective currencies instead of using US dollars. Talking about China and many of our "allies". Most don't understand how damaging this is for the dollar. One reason for the US's great power over the world is the fact that our currency has been the world reserve currency since the Bretton Woods Agreement. As the dollar's omnipresence deteriorates, it will greatly reduce international demand for the dollar. As the value drops it will reduce international demand for bonds as means of safe money storage so to speak, etc. This is happening now and is not a theory; it will not ever go back to the old ways once the new changes are effected fully and those other countries realize they don't need the dollar anymore. Look at the reduction in China's dollar holdings along with the other "allies" I mentioned (bond buying). I don't have time for one of my usual long-winded responses, but I would ask you where you get your info from? Another thing you need to check into is the derivative exposure of the top 10 large financial institutions. What you call expansion I call debt creation (loans, etc).

Your post reminds me of TreasurePirate's views a bit and sounds 100% logical. But I have to follow my instincts and they are SCREAMING that something big and bad financially is coming in the next year(s). I wish I didn't feel that way, but unfortunately I took the "red pill" a few years back and cannot undo what I now know and understand. I cannot speak for you, but I believe that many otherwise intelligent people fail to see how bad things have become here financially because to acknowledge such would be too painful to bear (kind of like knowing you have a terminal disease and what is waiting for you), thus it is easier to cast away arguments like mine as goofy or conspiratorial then they can go back to seeing that everything is "going to get better" or thinking the "crash" won't happen for a long time. Or, they simply believe everything they hear from the mainstream media cheerleaders about our alleged "recovery", etc

Please don't believe that our modern, high level of technology somehow changes us modern humans from what we were in the past history- excess spending and debt always leads to a big crash then reorganization in some form. Our national debt grows at over a Trillion a year. Will that stop? That can only be maintained if other countries want to keep buying the dollar, but in even greater amounts than before to keep the game going. I don't think it will.

As far as the transfer of wealth, that will be via a very large stock correction and/or large institutional banking failure(s). I feel the former is more likely first than the latter.

My view is that either with deflation/depression or inflation/excess money printing physical gold and silver will be a wise holding, until something new is created that becomes the new "dollar" etc.

PS The amount of Americans on welfare and/or other gov free money has skyrocketed in the past 8 years or so. Anyone think that number is going to get lower? Sooner or later the house of cards MUST fall, it is just a question of when. Maybe it will take another 20 years so we can all forget about it for a while? If the stock market does take off because of newer QE or such which could happen if the Fed wants to help the market, then I will happily play the 3X stock bull ETFs. My view is that as long as the paper markets are moving, there is money to be made in the ETF's as long as you are going in the right direction (for a small portion of one's portfolio among the metals).

Glad you took the time to post your opinion TCK! For what it's worth, I hope you are right and I am wrong.

Just my opinion.

Jim
 

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As usual, a well-considered post.

You ask what sources I use for informational purposes. It would be dishonest to deny that certain of my perspective comes from mainstream media outlets (internet, TV, print, etc.), which I do try to temper, but, living in the business world, I'm exposed to much more than just that. My work environment provides easy access to many types of publications, which also helps provide perspective, as does information gleened from grass roots forums like this one. Ultimately the basis for my opinions are derived from as many sources as possible, and I do try to balance what I'm able to absorb.

Experiencing and paying attention to 30+ years of market cycles (since college) also helps one gain perspective.

Also, I've never mentioned this before, but I was a young pup, wet behind the ears, working in Bunker Hunt's offices in 1980 during "the event". I spent the better part of the next 10 years dealing with the resulting bankruptcy issues, and watched as the assets accumulated by Bunker's late dad disappeared from Bunker's and his 5 brothers' and sisters' personal and trust accounts. That doesn't make me an expert on the topic, but it does add a bit more perspective to the mix.

My main point to you, is that none of us really knows what the future holds. Stay open-minded on what you absorb, and as always, diversification is the best way to deal with the unknown.

Regards,

TCK
 

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Great replies guys, I like to see constructive communication. Well my side, I'm 100% PM's and it come from the inside telling me to stack it. I may be wrong but I do have a strong faith and follow what my insides tell me. (Yes I'm a Christian)
I believe we will know shortly as everything around us is getting so controversial and going crazy and the main stream media is not even reporting any of it. So be prepared. I for one will Keep Stacking

By the way, The Duke raises them well. Well Well ..look at this.....! * ponderingtheessence
 

I still see $18.00 dollar silver this week. :( for stackers - :) great for buying.
 

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