Economic Collapse and PMs

[FreedomUIC]

Economic Collapse and PM's

You always hear how our Fiat dollar is on its way out and the total collapse of the system, as we know it, is inevitable.

This is my take on the US Economy at this time, it is roughly thought out and appears to be where we are headed. There
is an old saying that "History repeats itself". As I am watching a tiny piece of where we live, I have seen the following things
happening, some at an alarming rate.

1) Families living/staying in the same house. Back in the late 1800's to roughly 1935 - 40, families often lived together in one
house. This included Husband and wife, their children and their childrens spouses. This would also include any grandchildren
that might happen along during that time. Everybody contributed to the running of the household including chipping in and paying the bills. With the economy in such a dis-array right now, I have seen this trend starting to become popular again. Just
in my family alone, my youngest is still at home(23), my oldest is married but living with his bride at her parents house. While this is happening in Florida, my cousin in MI has the same thing happening to him. The family unit is now starting to move back to a being a family instead of wanting to get out of the house at the age of 18.

2) Everyday staples cost more and more to purchase from a grocery store. Gardens are now becoming more popular and canning the produce is starting to make a comeback. As a child, my mother always canned everything that came from our 5 acre garden. Any fruit we harvested was either blanched and then frozen/canned or dehydrated and stored in the freezer.
The people on our block are wanting to start a community garden where everybody pitches in and everybody reaps the benefits.

3) More and more families are keeping their money at home and not using our current US Banking Instituion. Why? Fear of banking collapse, government confiscation. I do not have an answer to that one but I am seeing it more and more.

4) Neighbors are now taking the time to truly be neighbors. They are looking out for each other, sharing weekend events, cookouts and generally just enjoying the company of each other.

5) Jobs are becoming more and more scarce and the ones that pay relatively a small dollar per hour have 30 to 40 people being interviewed. More often than not, the jobs come with no benefits and are part time. Sounds like the "Great Depression"
to me. The skilled labor trades have taken a big hit where I live, most electricians, carpenters, plumbers and so on, have all been out of work for years (not months). They survive by doing odd jobs to feed their family and pay the bills.

By investing in PM's at this time, when retirement time hits I plan on using the stash I have accumulated to possibly make ends meet. My thoughts are roughly that every month I would turn in 1 oz of gold or a tube of silver for extra spending money
or when extra money is needed for an emergency. Times are going to get a lot tougher before they get better and with the price of AG and AU being quite low as compared to the last year or so, now is a good time for me to stock up with as much as
I can purchase. I still have 15 years left before retirement but would like to take this opportunity to make the pile just a little
bit bigger. That is why I collect PM's, as a hedge against inflation and liquid cash if the situation calls for it. I do not buy PM's because the world is coming to an end, I do not drink the kool-aid I have heard offered everywhere but I do listen to people
who I believe have a better understanding of the world around us than I do.

I will step down off my soapbox for now....

 

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[mts]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Some very nice observations.

I have to say though that I think a lot of this is very regional or specific to certain income ranges. I'm not really seeing any of this in my neighborhood. I'm certainly not "rich" by any means. But I live in a white collar neighborhood where the average salary is probably $70K+. A couple of years ago we had two out of ten houses where people had lost jobs. But those people are now gainfully employed. One person has a garden but he has always had a garden. And most of the yards are small enough to where having anything other than a 10'x10' garden is probably out of the question.

But just because I personally do not see these things does not mean that they aren't happening elsewhere. Perhaps even one or two streets over. It's just hard for me to gauge what is really going on when I am not exposed to the real suffering. And I know that a lot of people are really hurting.

I'm on the fence when it comes to reading the future. There is a lot of doom and gloom out there these days for various reasons. Some people two years ago predicted that our fiat currency would already be dead. Some are predicting that the death will come in another two years (and then another two years after that ad infinitum until it finally happens). I do believe that short term we could be in for another downturn. But long term I think we will struggle for a long time without things really improving or getting terribly worse. But that's just my belief based on looking through my own rose colored glasses. I'm sure that if I was one of those people struggling to find a job my beliefs would be radically different.

Thanks for sharing your ideas. It's always good to hear about other opinions on such things. Especially when those opinions are presented in a non-argumentative way.

 

[Marchas45]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

You always hear how our Fiat dollar is on its way out and the total collapse of the system, as we know it, is inevitable.

This is my take on the US Economy at this time, it is roughly thought out and appears to be where we are headed. There
is an old saying that "History repeats itself". As I am watching a tiny piece of where we live, I have seen the following things
happening, some at an alarming rate.

1) Families living/staying in the same house. Back in the late 1800's to roughly 1935 - 40, families often lived together in one
house. This included Husband and wife, their children and their childrens spouses. This would also include any grandchildren
that might happen along during that time. Everybody contributed to the running of the household including chipping in and paying the bills. With the economy in such a dis-array right now, I have seen this trend starting to become popular again. Just
in my family alone, my youngest is still at home(23), my oldest is married but living with his bride at her parents house. While this is happening in Florida, my cousin in MI has the same thing happening to him. The family unit is now starting to move back to a being a family instead of wanting to get out of the house at the age of 18.

2) Everyday staples cost more and more to purchase from a grocery store. Gardens are now becoming more popular and canning the produce is starting to make a comeback. As a child, my mother always canned everything that came from our 5 acre garden. Any fruit we harvested was either blanched and then frozen/canned or dehydrated and stored in the freezer.
The people on our block are wanting to start a community garden where everybody pitches in and everybody reaps the benefits.

3) More and more families are keeping their money at home and not using our current US Banking Instituion. Why? Fear of banking collapse, government confiscation. I do not have an answer to that one but I am seeing it more and more.

4) Neighbors are now taking the time to truly be neighbors. They are looking out for each other, sharing weekend events, cookouts and generally just enjoying the company of each other.

5) Jobs are becoming more and more scarce and the ones that pay relatively a small dollar per hour have 30 to 40 people being interviewed. More often than not, the jobs come with no benefits and are part time. Sounds like the "Great Depression"
to me. The skilled labor trades have taken a big hit where I live, most electricians, carpenters, plumbers and so on, have all been out of work for years (not months). They survive by doing odd jobs to feed their family and pay the bills.

By investing in PM's at this time, when retirement time hits I plan on using the stash I have accumulated to possibly make ends meet. My thoughts are roughly that every month I would turn in 1 oz of gold or a tube of silver for extra spending money
or when extra money is needed for an emergency. Times are going to get a lot tougher before they get better and with the price of AG and AU being quite low as compared to the last year or so, now is a good time for me to stock up with as much as
I can purchase. I still have 15 years left before retirement but would like to take this opportunity to make the pile just a little
bit bigger. That is why I collect PM's, as a hedge against inflation and liquid cash if the situation calls for it. I do not buy PM's because the world is coming to an end, I do not drink the kool-aid I have heard offered everywhere but I do listen to people
who I believe have a better understanding of the world around us than I do.

I will step down off my soapbox for now....

Hi! Freedom I see a lot of that happening right now here in Maine, especially the small towns, in one town alone close to 30% of the owners walked away from their homes, now that's scary. Work is hard to come by especially the building trades and lots of people are on unemployment.
I'm also finding it a little tough but I'm a go getter and I make enough to pay the bills either thru my job or little side things that I do, like selling on ebay and on the forums,
I'm also on SS so that helps me out and I'm glad I took it early so I have a little cash coming in.

 

[fistfulladirt]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Living in Michigan, one of the most depressed states in the nation, and one of the most depressed towns that has lost all it's industry, I just don't see it either...roads full of cars in the middle of the day, resturants packed at nite, the lakes full of boats, where's the recession?
The people I work with are still buying their new vehicles every or other year, although I myself not spending that much as I concentrated on paying off the mortgage 20 years early.

 

[jim4silver]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Living in Michigan, one of the most depressed states in the nation, and one of the most depressed towns that has lost all it's industry, I just don't see it either...roads full of cars in the middle of the day, resturants packed at nite, the lakes full of boats, where's the recession?
The people I work with are still buying their new vehicles every or other year, although I myself not spending that much as I concentrated on paying off the mortgage 20 years early.

You probably won't really notice it until it reaches a point where things collapse financially really fast. Many people are currently living in homes and are not paying their mortgages. Some of them cannot afford to pay and some are so underwater on their loans that they have decided to stop paying and just wait to be evicted. Thus, some are using that extra disposable cash to spend on other goodies since they are not paying any rent. Further, many people have thousands of dollars in credit card debt and keep spending that way and are only making minimum payments each month.

One objective way to gauge how well things are going for Americans is looking at how many are partaking in free gov goodies based on need. Here is a two month old article that talks about food stamp usage numbers. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/03/food-stamp-usage-highest_n_917038.html

As long as the gov keeps giving away food stamps, extended unemployment benefits, etc, things will probably keep going on looking "normal" without much to notice for a while. And even when people are having a bad time financially, they don't generally walk around with shirts that have slogans saying "I am broke" and they instead try to not make their situations obvious. One alarming trend is the number of people and families living in their cars and in tents in major urban areas. Check out this article.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...n-their-cars-in-tent-cities-or-on-the-streets

What is widely known from all past "recessions" is that they ONLY go away when housing starts and housing demand increases (this may simply be correlation and not causation, but recoveries always have increased housing figures). This has been a sign that a recession has ended and has occurred every time our country has been in a recession then improved. Personally, I don't see the housing market improving (prices going UP and demand increasing) anytime soon. Many younger folks who cannot make their way are moving back in with parents. Unfortunately many fall for the "you gotta go to college" line and wind up with $50,000+ in student loan debt and no job (or maybe a barely over minimum wage job) and that 4 year degree in art history or political science. That student debt is not dischargeable in bankruptcy and will follow a person around forever. I think college is great if you need it to get the job or have the career you want, but many do it simply because they are expected to do so and have been told they are not worthy if they don't go.

With respect to the unemployment situation, I believe that employers have learned how to get by with fewer employees (make them more productive), so even if things do improve in the economy, that will not correlate to an automatic increase in hiring. Just because a company has more money to spend does not mean they are going to spend it if they don't have to.

PS An old saying, "a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours".

All just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Voice of Reason]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Debt is not income. Let us be reasonable here.

That people still "buy" a new vehicle every other year does not mean they have the money for the purchase. The majority of "white collar" families are in debt. The majority of what we see as wealth today is "pseudo wealth" - non other than debt. To "finance" a new car every other year or to hold a twenty year mortgage is to be in debt, which can hardly be indicative of income or real wealth.

fistfulladirt - take notice when all of those people eating out in restaurants (in your economically depressed area) go to "pay" for their dining experience...don't most pull out the credit card? which is none other than debt.

Because we are habituated to spend like good little consumers, does not indicate that we have the actual means to pay for our wants.

IMHO anyway
Voice of Reason

 

[fistfulladirt]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Debt is not income. Let us be reasonable here.

That people still "buy" a new vehicle every other year does not mean they have the money for the purchase. The majority of "white collar" families are in debt. The majority of what we see as wealth today is "pseudo wealth" - non other than debt. To "finance" a new car every other year or to hold a twenty year mortgage is to be in debt, which can hardly be indicative of income or real wealth.

fistfulladirt - take notice when all of those people eating out in restaurants (in your economically depressed area) go to "pay" for their dining experience...don't most pull out the credit card? which is none other than debt.

Because we are habituated to spend like good little consumers, does not indicate that we have the actual means to pay for our wants.

IMHO anyway
Voice of Reason

You are truly the Voice of Reason. ffd

 

[Voice of Reason]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Thank you for the acknowledgement, my friend.

Best to you and yours.
VoR

 

[FreedomUIC]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Living in Michigan, one of the most depressed states in the nation, and one of the most depressed towns that has lost all it's industry, I just don't see it either...roads full of cars in the middle of the day, resturants packed at nite, the lakes full of boats, where's the recession?
The people I work with are still buying their new vehicles every or other year, although I myself not spending that much as I concentrated on paying off the mortgage 20 years early.

I can speak a little about MI. I was born there, my father worked for GM for 30 years and retired to Florida. We used to live in the Flint area, both me and my wife.
My wife and I own partnership in two rental homes(Inheritance) and 80 acres of farmland seperated from the farmhouse(one of the rentals). My BIL hasn't had a job in almost four years that is 40 hours a week with benefits, my SIL has worked for the same company for 25 years but must drive 45 minutes one way twice day, five days a week. The renters are becoming more and more behind on rent and cost of farming the land has risen in the last few years to where the family probably will cease to work the land within the next year or so. They have their entire family - 1 living with them including their sons wife and child. This is not the same person as I spoke of before. These properties are in the Detroit Metro area and from what I have heard, there is no work in that particular area other than "Fast Food" or Walmart. My BIL has a Masters Degree in Computer Science, there are no jobs to be offered. Ten years ago he had offers every week to come and work for another company. They are had to use the government sponsored program to refinance or lose the house they are living in which was built by my wife's father and has been in the family
for over 60 years. In that area of MI, it just seems to be dead right now. I wish it was like where you are FFD, I would move back to MI in a New York Minute. I have a degree in computer science and am working in a school district as a Senior Systems Analyst, have been for going on 10 years now. My wife and I are one of the lucky ones, we still have jobs.

I know the Flint area is starting to make a comeback but it is still real slow in that area unless you work for the government in some fashion, i.e., Police, Fire, School and such.

Not trying to argue with you FFD, just stating what I know is happening in other parts of the US.

 

[fistfulladirt]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

That's interesting Freedom, I think you've mentioned before that you were from this area. The only thing keeping me in this state is my job. Of course, I am married w/young kids, and all of my immediate family lives within a 15 mile radius. I do live frugally yet comfortable, thanks to my union job in telecom. ffd

 

[azlegends]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Im no economic genius, but all I know is that I've been laid off 2 times in 2 1/2 years, and quite a few of my friends have been laid off atleast once in the same timespan.

 

[billjustbill]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Living in Michigan, one of the most depressed states in the nation, and one of the most depressed towns that has lost all it's industry, I just don't see it either...roads full of cars in the middle of the day, resturants packed at nite, the lakes full of boats, where's the recession?
The people I work with are still buying their new vehicles every or other year, although I myself not spending that much as I concentrated on paying off the mortgage 20 years early.

Here in North Central Texas, at the weekly garage sales I go to, I see the majority of people selling the things they aren't using, are in the way, and aren't worth much. If it's an estate sale or movement to an Assisted Living complex where the family has picked through what they want, they just want to get rid of it and get "something" for it. The majority of the homeowners have what they need and most of what they want....

In not the best local neighborhood, but one just under it with homes in the $175,000 level, the lady and her daughter were talking and laughing about the money they'll make would give them spending money for the Ft. Worth shopping malls.... To me, it just shows that even those Upper Middle Class people are having to cut back, and for now they are trying to get back their old "Disposable Income" money they have done with less or without.... Garage Sale money is NOT the money needed for getting to work, buying meds or paying for health issues. Those that have low incomes are getting by with help from mostly government programs, and both local programs and churches are helping, too. It's tough, but few are said to be starving or in deep trouble.

Other than food and fuel, most prices have stayed the same or have been reduced as a "Lost Leader" advertising expense. So, Business has streamlined itself, cut the fat, and is selling with prices that fit the home budgets and leave some extra dollars in the checking account for major purchases or keeping the "Frills" they like and use to showoff with..... Unless they have been without a job for months, things aren't noticeably changing.

The U.S. economy is like those mile long freight trains I used to see as a kid in 50's and 60's. Because of their sheer size, it took a L-O-N-G time to stop one....and an even L-O-N-G-E-R time and distance to get one up to speed.

Even though cotton crops, in the U.S. and worldwide, have been bad for the last two seasons, big retail companies are importing more finished goods, manufactures are making the garments with thinner or Nylon blended cloth, or sold with less items in a package. Meat prices are lower because of no feed & little water, and the drought is forcing ranchers to sell off most of their herds. Even garage sale "inventory" has to become less, and quality of items sold will border on trash and rags.....

But, all these "adjustments" can't last..... As less and less employment is available, the families will have do with less. Limited purchasing eventually causes limited production. Limiting production will cause higher cost per unit and smaller standing inventories. Smaller inventories cause shortages. Shortages will cause high demand, prices to go up, and shoot up suddenly. That's not even taking into account the value of the American dollar.

If a terrorist or group strikes a big attack, or a major quake hits several states, there will be no "slow down". We'll be derailed while already going over a deep economic gorge. The ripples and setbacks will be huge and long lasting. With your current after-tax income, is there ONE thing that will help you and your family deal with the months or years it will take to get the economy train back on its tracks?

All this, to say, Dad's old 3-legged milking stool still seems to have the answer. Anything with three contact points, even if one of the legs is longer, it never rocks. (1.) PM's like silver and gold are part of the protection needed for an uncertain future. (2.) Homebase has to have food, water, some type of limited power, and the tools & applances to keep life "normal". (3.) God and community have to be there offering peace of mind and support....

I'll pass the soapbox to others who have learned and will share "How to use PM's", and their abilities, to get there,
Bill

 

[j.n.]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

Here in Phoenix Arizona I have been observing my area and have seen many houses for sale or being repressed. When I bought my home, 35+/- years ago my neighborhood was solid lower class bumping up into middle class. Today there have been yuppies buying the bargin priced homes and keeping a balance with the repositions and reduced price homes but I do not know how long this will last.

I have seen stats. that show those with college degrees are much better off, as to employment, than those with out so I think that we are in the middle of a blue collar depression. looking at the new car sales for this area seem to show that many people are not feeling pressure from the economy as yet.

I have been retired for 12 years and my wife about 3 years and we were doing well enough to live fairly well and buy a new vehicle when needed and money in our pocket to patronize our local casinos. Today things are getting tighter because I have a daughter and two grand children in Oklahoma, a daughter and three grand kids here in Phoenix. These two families are sent monies needed to live on, when we are able to.

I was born during the height of the great depression and quite possibility will die during the current one. I thought I had planned well enough for my wife and myself to live decently and I think we can but I have many worries for my children and grand children.

We seemed to be cursed with politicians who have no sense where spending tax monies is concerned we will continue under this curse until many of our leaders are investigated and charged with crimes committed. My great fear is that we will have a civil war in this country
which we will not survive. The signs are most evident in the stockpiling of thousends perhaps millions of fire arms and the ammo for these guns.

J.N.

 

[mts]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

...My great fear is that we will have a civil war in this country
which we will not survive.....

I fear the same thing. But what has me wondering is whether it will be the result of class warfare (rich vs. poor), political warfare (Repubs vs. Dems), or something else (religion?, race?, etc.). It sure seems like there are a lot of things dividing our country right now. But will any one of them be enough to push this country into a civil war? As usual, I only have questions and no answers.

And thanks for the interesting insights about what is going on in Phoenix.

 

[FreedomUIC]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

...My great fear is that we will have a civil war in this country
which we will not survive.....

I fear the same thing. But what has me wondering is whether it will be the result of class warfare (rich vs. poor), political warfare (Repubs vs. Dems), or something else (religion?, race?, etc.). It sure seems like there are a lot of things dividing our country right now. But will any one of them be enough to push this country into a civil war? As usual, I only have questions and no answers.

And thanks for the interesting insights about what is going on in Phoenix.

If I had to hap-hazard a guess on civil war, I would have to say it would be the People rising up against the government.
Just a guess, by the way, Walmart has a great price on ammunition right now....

 

[jim4silver]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

...My great fear is that we will have a civil war in this country
which we will not survive. ....

I fear the same thing. But what has me wondering is whether it will be the result of class warfare (rich vs. poor), political warfare (Repubs vs. Dems), or something else (religion?, race?, etc.). It sure seems like there are a lot of things dividing our country right now. But will any one of them be enough to push this country into a civil war? As usual, I only have questions and no answers.

And thanks for the interesting insights about what is going on in Phoenix.

If I had to hap-hazard a guess on civil war, I would have to say it would be the People rising up against the government.
Just a guess, by the way, Walmart has a great price on ammunition right now....

The people who would rioting or whatever should really be mad at themselves, but they will instead be mad at the government if they (the people) lose all their gov freebies that they have come to depend on like welfare, food stamps, disability payments, medicare, etc, etc.

The usual trend in our country over the past 60 or so years is to avoid responsibility and have some bogeyman to place the blame upon for any and all problems. All the politicians we have here were voted in "by the people", thus any blame on what they do must be shared by those who voted for them. But instead, the average person will blame "the government" or "the politicians" for any problem in the country.

In my opinion, many US citizens have been become not only dependent on the gov for sustenance, but also have an entitlement attitude that is partly to blame for the current downfall of our society with respect to the economy and otherwise. I remember a few years back before the real estate crash, when anyone with a pulse could get a no down payment mortgage. You would hear slogans like "everyone deserves a home of their own", and crap like that. Nobody deserves anything but to be free to pursue their livelihoods and the right to participate in our quasi-capitalist system and have full protection of the laws as they are written. No more, no less.

If there is any civil war or whatever, I would be willing to bet it will be more like what you see in third world countries, where looters and those who don't have anything will be rioting and pillaging from their own neighbors and anyone else who they perceive to have things to take (like you saw in Katrina, etc).

It would be interesting to compare the general mindset/attitude/belief system of those who lived during the great depression vs. the mindset, etc, of those living today. I would imagine there is a world of difference between those living then and those living now. But no way to tell for sure I imagine.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[FreedomUIC]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

I only have one story to tell about the Great Depression. My mother was telling me a story how the farmers were told what they could raise and what they couldn't. I do not know why it was that way, but non the less it was. My grandfather's farm was allocated to pork production and his neighbors farm was allocated to beef. Every year when it came time for calving, the local constabulary would go out to the neighbors farm and tag each new calf for tracking. The farmers were only allowed to sell so many head of beef a year depending on the size of your herd. The same held true for my grandfathers pig farm. Well, any time a calf was dropped before the government arrived, my grandfathers neighbor would bring it over to my grandfathers farm until the government had tagged all the new calves and vice versa for the pig farm.

This gave each farmer livestock that was not recorded in any books. When money was needed for either farm, the two neighbors got together and processed either a cow or pig on the farm and not at the local processor. The local processor was the person with the books and numbers for each farm in the county. You couldn't take your livestock to any other place but your local processor. Once the animal was prepared on the farm, be it either pig or cow, they would wrap it in cheesecloth and place the processed animal in one of their vehicles. The animal was than transported to Flint, MI, which was the closest metropolitan area to where they lived. There was a business there that would buy your produce without checking for tags. Grandpa would hand the keys to the car to one of the workers, converse with the owner for a little while and then retrieve his keys and leave. In the glove box was always an envelope of money and the processed pork or beef had vanished.

Just a unique story about the american people in that time frame.

 

[Marchas45]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

It's amazing what the goverment can get away with and all these protesters out there right now are blaming the banks I don't get it, the protesters just can't see the real culprits. Yes there where a few rogue banks but the bottom line is the goverment has control.

 

[jim4silver]

Re: Economic Collapse and PM's

It's amazing what the goverment can get away with and all these protesters out there right now are blaming the banks I don't get it, the protesters just can't see the real culprits. Yes there where a few rogue banks but the bottom line is the goverment has control.

Here is a brief article with an interesting view on the protests. I don't agree with everything he says, but he makes some valid points about the state of the economy and what might lie ahead regarding the excessive debt, and further the need for "honest money" (as opposed to fiat currency).

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty101711.html

Jim