jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
- 3,662
- 495
I have to say that for the past few years I have spent many hours reading commentary from both the bull and bear PM pundits. I always sided with the bull pundits because like them I am bullish on PMs, especially silver.
But over the past couple of months it has become clear to me that most (not all) of the bullish pundits I have followed and believed are full of bull. Maybe they are so bullish they unwittingly put on blinders to anything that is counter to their view on the world of PMs. Or perhaps there is a more nefarious reason for the views some of them put forth constantly. Sometimes I wonder if some of them are actually working for the big PM shorters as "double agents"? I am not saying that in the end these bullish commentators will be shown to be wrong. In fact, they will probably be correct with respect to silver and gold going MUCH MUCH higher than today. But it seems to me many of these commentators never want to talk about anything that might make PM prices drop, except for the often discussed "manipulation".
I won't name any names because this is just speculation on my part, but as I read some of their commentaries now after having my own personal "come to Jesus moment" with respect to PMs and investing in general, it is almost comical to read what some of them write. I used to feel this way when I read certain bear commentaries over the past few years, but in hindsight, it was these bearish commentators who have been more accurate over the past year or two. In the end I believe said bear commentators will be wrong, but for now they seem more "reasonable" than their bullish counterparts. I am just saying that to really get a good "feel" for what is going on and what is likely to happen over the near term, a person should read both the bullish and bearish articles as well as keep an open mind. Instead of simply believing a commentator because you like what they say, one needs to compare what they are saying with what is actually taking place in the real world markets.
My main reason for getting into PMs was to protect my wealth, not be "right" about any particular idea such as inflation, solvency of the dollar, etc. I feel that some of the bullish pundits have done a disservice to us sheeple who are trying to better our situations. Instead of providing info based on honest ideas and views, some have been simply putting forth certain ideas because it furthers their agenda or makes them money some way.
I do feel that there are "honest" pundits on both the bearish and bullish sides, but I also feel that there are far more charlatans on both sides who simply are trying to make themselves a profit and nothing more. Not that there is anything wrong with that per se, but just be careful who you decide to believe and follow in this arena of investing.
Whether silver goes to 100 or 10 in the next year or two or three, one side will in the end be correct. I am betting it is the bulls, and the bull pundits should come out looking like prophets after that happens. Just know that there could be considerable time passing between now and then, and alternative ways to profit a person might miss by simply following any pundit (bull or bear) without keeping even a slightly open mind.
I have learned the importance of diversification. Even if just among PMs. If a person really believes all fiat/paper investments will collapse, they should have more than just silver or gold in their portfolios.
PS Remember a couple of days ago when certain bull pundits were saying how silver is going to disappear soon mostly based the US Mint's suspension of silver eagles sales? Well, my local coin stores have them in now, and get this, the premiums today are LESS than they were a couple of weeks ago! That's right, now they are roughly 3 bucks over spot instead of 3.50 to 3.75!!! Even with all the paper manipulation in the world this should not happen in the ASE market where such coins are so highly in demand right now IF there really is a shortage of silver or even a shortage of ASEs for that matter. So with the big silver shortage, premiums are dropping on the much favored 2013 ASE? The world has certainly turned upside down it appears.
Just my opinion on all this.
Jim
But over the past couple of months it has become clear to me that most (not all) of the bullish pundits I have followed and believed are full of bull. Maybe they are so bullish they unwittingly put on blinders to anything that is counter to their view on the world of PMs. Or perhaps there is a more nefarious reason for the views some of them put forth constantly. Sometimes I wonder if some of them are actually working for the big PM shorters as "double agents"? I am not saying that in the end these bullish commentators will be shown to be wrong. In fact, they will probably be correct with respect to silver and gold going MUCH MUCH higher than today. But it seems to me many of these commentators never want to talk about anything that might make PM prices drop, except for the often discussed "manipulation".
I won't name any names because this is just speculation on my part, but as I read some of their commentaries now after having my own personal "come to Jesus moment" with respect to PMs and investing in general, it is almost comical to read what some of them write. I used to feel this way when I read certain bear commentaries over the past few years, but in hindsight, it was these bearish commentators who have been more accurate over the past year or two. In the end I believe said bear commentators will be wrong, but for now they seem more "reasonable" than their bullish counterparts. I am just saying that to really get a good "feel" for what is going on and what is likely to happen over the near term, a person should read both the bullish and bearish articles as well as keep an open mind. Instead of simply believing a commentator because you like what they say, one needs to compare what they are saying with what is actually taking place in the real world markets.
My main reason for getting into PMs was to protect my wealth, not be "right" about any particular idea such as inflation, solvency of the dollar, etc. I feel that some of the bullish pundits have done a disservice to us sheeple who are trying to better our situations. Instead of providing info based on honest ideas and views, some have been simply putting forth certain ideas because it furthers their agenda or makes them money some way.
I do feel that there are "honest" pundits on both the bearish and bullish sides, but I also feel that there are far more charlatans on both sides who simply are trying to make themselves a profit and nothing more. Not that there is anything wrong with that per se, but just be careful who you decide to believe and follow in this arena of investing.
Whether silver goes to 100 or 10 in the next year or two or three, one side will in the end be correct. I am betting it is the bulls, and the bull pundits should come out looking like prophets after that happens. Just know that there could be considerable time passing between now and then, and alternative ways to profit a person might miss by simply following any pundit (bull or bear) without keeping even a slightly open mind.
I have learned the importance of diversification. Even if just among PMs. If a person really believes all fiat/paper investments will collapse, they should have more than just silver or gold in their portfolios.
PS Remember a couple of days ago when certain bull pundits were saying how silver is going to disappear soon mostly based the US Mint's suspension of silver eagles sales? Well, my local coin stores have them in now, and get this, the premiums today are LESS than they were a couple of weeks ago! That's right, now they are roughly 3 bucks over spot instead of 3.50 to 3.75!!! Even with all the paper manipulation in the world this should not happen in the ASE market where such coins are so highly in demand right now IF there really is a shortage of silver or even a shortage of ASEs for that matter. So with the big silver shortage, premiums are dropping on the much favored 2013 ASE? The world has certainly turned upside down it appears.
Just my opinion on all this.
Jim
I have gone through the exact same experience over the past year or so. Doing my own research really opened my eyes. Some of these pundits are being willfully deceptive. What amazes me is that no one ever seems to call them on it. Instead, the exact same "facts" get parroted over and over again on the silver bulls' web sites as if it is gospel. 
Well I guess I'm a true believer in Manipulation and I believe the dollar is going to be worth ziltch down the road. I'm also all in in PM's and when I get some Fiat I spend it all on PM's. Treasure Pirate My Believes are My Believes and I don't give a crap if you don't like or believe in my opinions. If you are correct in your mind then I will probably lose everything in the long run. So I would appreciate you not bringing up my name. Keep Stacking
