Any silver price short term predictions?

[jim4silver]

I get the impression the price of silver nowadays has nothing to do with supply side economics; the supply is available. The 'painfully' slow and continuous drop in price seems to be controlled by big players who can manipulate the price through demand--or less demand.
Don....

I agree. It simply takes one with the most $$$ to play in the paper markets to control the price of silver. Physical demand is not enough to make any price difference. I don't think physical demand had anything to do with the 2011 peak; it was playing in the paper markets probably by those who are shorting now. By paper markets I mean Comex, ETFs, other derivatives, etc.

I think the "manipulation" comes down to the fact that the paper market allows buyers/sellers to sell/purchase millions of ounces a day even though the actual metal never enters the equation. The only "cure" for this situation would be if physical was demanded in such a way that overcame all physical supplies. I am doubting that day will ever happen- absent some major worldwide events that spook the sheep (and the 1%ers) into metals from paper.

Our only "hope" for a PM rally (absent the physical demand) is if the same folks shorting the crap out of it change their minds and decide to go long again. Also, if PMs become a bit more fashionable (which will only happen after higher prices come from the paper longs pushing it up again), to such extent the hedge funds, etc, decide to invest in PMs (paper or otherwise) in large amounts, which was happening somewhat into the run up to 2011 if I remember correctly.

I am still buying when good deals present themselves. I picked up this set recently for $1.50 over spot per ounce. It is a Highlander Coin Collection that has 5- 2 oz .999 coins. It looks like this one. I don't know what Highlander is but the coins are cool.

1997 HIGHLANDER COMMEMORATIVE COIN COLLECTION 5-2 OZ. .999 SILVER COIN SET !!

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

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[lastleg]

Good news! I saw on the net that silver is going to the moon, but that was yesterday.

 

[Mackaydon]

Jim
The Highlander Collection had a 'Limited Edition' (aren't they always??) of 10,000 sets. They represent scenes from season 1-5 of the Highlander TV series.
Don......

 

[jim4silver]

Jim
The Highlander Collection had a 'Limited Edition' (aren't they always??) of 10,000 sets. They represent scenes from season 1-5 of the Highlander TV series.
Don......

I did some checking and it sounds like Highlander is an interesting movie/TV series. I will have to check it out sometime. Someday I can hopefully sell the set on ebay to some diehard fan.

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

Historically (five years ago), silver has 'mild' support at 14, the year before-at 10 and at 9 in '08. I agree that 'DT' winning would add fuel (demand) to the fire (market price). In the meantime, this 'broken record' will stay on the sidelines and wait for 12; then start 'stacking' with further deterioration or a rise.
Don..........

 

[jim4silver]

Historically (five years ago), silver has 'mild' support at 14, the year before-at 10 and at 9 in '08. I agree that 'DT' winning would add fuel (demand) to the fire (market price). In the meantime, this 'broken record' will stay on the sidelines and wait for 12; then start 'stacking' with further deterioration or a rise.
Don..........

You could be right. However, I don't think we will see $12 silver. If they do smash it down to that level on comex, etc, I don't think we will see silver in coin stores any cheaper than it is today.

Looking at the charts, $14 seems to be an important level. Perhaps that is as far as the shorts can slam silver and still keep the "game" going (knock it down, let it go up a few bucks, knock it down, go up a few bucks, etc.).

If they do knock it to $12 there would have to be something "new" come out of the financial world. Some pundits keep saying if they raise the interest rate that is bad for gold. Apparently they don't realize gold has gone up many times in the past along with rising rates (this was when rates were much much higher than now). Thus, a measly 25 basis points won't mean squat. I think it is a buy the rumor sell the news (inverse) type of thing. I am starting to think we might see PMs rise if they raised the rate 25 basis points. Just like how the stock market went up much AFTER QE was "ended". Everyone though ending QE would kill the market and once they did end it, the market went up.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

You may be right. I've been on the sidelines Re: PMs for five years but 'itchin' to get back in.
Don......

 

[TheCoinKid]

Picked up a roll of Walker halves this week for 13.5x. Not a great price relative to bullion value, but the fact that they are better date, better condition coins made the price easier to digest.

TCK

 

[Goose-0]

TCK, anytime you buy silver, it's a good buy, whether you pay 10%, 20% or more over spot if you think it's a good purchase. I just purchased a few 2015 1 oz Australian 'Spider' coins for around 35% over spot. They are very nice looking coins. I like Aussie coins (Their designs put the U S designs to shame), and IT'S SILVER!

 

[jim4silver]

Picked up a roll of Walker halves this week for 13.5x. Not a great price relative to bullion value, but the fact that they are better date, better condition coins made the price easier to digest.

TCK

That's a good price for Walkers in decent shape. That's about a buck over what they charge here for average circulated junk dimes and quarters.

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

I can't help but notice the incessant downward trend in silver. It reminds me of placing a lobster in a lukewarm cooking bowl and gradually turning up the heat till it's too late for the lobster to realize what was happening. In the same vein, these two or three cent daily drops in the price of silver may have the same results; by themselves (2-3 cent drops) it appears as almost nothing, but cumulative, it has been a disaster--so far-- for silver investors--IMO.
Don........

 

[jim4silver]

I can't help but notice the incessant downward trend in silver. It reminds me of placing a lobster in a lukewarm cooking bowl and gradually turning up the heat till it's too late for the lobster to realize what was happening. In the same vein, these two or three cent daily drops in the price of silver may have the same results; by themselves (2-3 cent drops) it appears as almost nothing, but cumulative, it has been a disaster--so far-- for silver investors--IMO.
Don........

At this point in time it would appear you are correct, if you assume someone started buying silver after 2011. What many "bear" type posters don't seem to address is that from 2001 to 2011, silver gained almost every year. So if a person started buying then, or before, or even in 2008, they might still be in the black, depending on how much they bought after 2011.

This is an "evolving event", it's impossible to say if silver will become free eventually or if it will finally "bottom" and move upwards. At these price levels, it is hard to imagine losing money long term with silver if you bought today. Just based on the fact silver has to be mined and is not a paper product that can be printed out tells me there is a "bottom" soon unless the miners costs of production fall as much proportionately. Many say "most silver comes as a secondary metal" and that is right, but copper, lead, zinc and gold are down too, and those are the mines where most of the silver is found. Eventually that will affect silver's supply if those other mines have to shut down. So what I am saying is longer term there will either be higher prices, or less silver if these mines can't keep operational.

When you hear the old phrases like "buy low sell high" it makes me wonder why people don't like silver now? Will it go to $8 then rise to $16 and stay there forever? For someone wanting the traditional 10% or so as insurance, now is a perfect time. If someone is wanting to go "all in" or "back up the truck" then perhaps it is too soon. But DCA at this level and down (for a brand new buyer especially) is a gift.

As long as a person doesn't need to cash in their silver they really haven't truly "lost" any value. I don't think PM's can go to zero.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

Jim,
IMO, if an investor bought in during 2001 when the average price was < $4.50 and didn't sell when the price went to
10X, into the 40s, he/she was 'asleep at the wheel' and missed a lifetime chance. Personally, I wouldn't call that type of person an 'investor'; I'm leaning more towards the word 'hoarder'.

Silver is bouncing off a mini baseline (resistance level) right now. I'm watching closely to see if it will break below 14.
Don....

 

[Dman]

At this point in time it would appear you are correct, if you assume someone started buying silver after 2011. What many "bear" type posters don't seem to address is that from 2001 to 2011, silver gained almost every year. So if a person started buying then, or before, or even in 2008, they might still be in the black, depending on how much they bought after 2011.

This is an "evolving event", it's impossible to say if silver will become free eventually or if it will finally "bottom" and move upwards. At these price levels, it is hard to imagine losing money long term with silver if you bought today. Just based on the fact silver has to be mined and is not a paper product that can be printed out tells me there is a "bottom" soon unless the miners costs of production fall as much proportionately. Many say "most silver comes as a secondary metal" and that is right, but copper, lead, zinc and gold are down too, and those are the mines where most of the silver is found. Eventually that will affect silver's supply if those other mines have to shut down. So what I am saying is longer term there will either be higher prices, or less silver if these mines can't keep operational.

When you hear the old phrases like "buy low sell high" it makes me wonder why people don't like silver now? Will it go to $8 then rise to $16 and stay there forever? For someone wanting the traditional 10% or so as insurance, now is a perfect time. If someone is wanting to go "all in" or "back up the truck" then perhaps it is too soon. But DCA at this level and down (for a brand new buyer especially) is a gift.

As long as a person doesn't need to cash in their silver they really haven't truly "lost" any value. I don't think PM's can go to zero.

Just my opinion.

Jim

This may not mean anything to anyone but I am now buying silver.
Dman

 

[bradley1719]

At this point in time it would appear you are correct, if you assume someone started buying silver after 2011. What many "bear" type posters don't seem to address is that from 2001 to 2011, silver gained almost every year. So if a person started buying then, or before, or even in 2008, they might still be in the black, depending on how much they bought after 2011.

This is an "evolving event", it's impossible to say if silver will become free eventually or if it will finally "bottom" and move upwards. At these price levels, it is hard to imagine losing money long term with silver if you bought today. Just based on the fact silver has to be mined and is not a paper product that can be printed out tells me there is a "bottom" soon unless the miners costs of production fall as much proportionately. Many say "most silver comes as a secondary metal" and that is right, but copper, lead, zinc and gold are down too, and those are the mines where most of the silver is found. Eventually that will affect silver's supply if those other mines have to shut down. So what I am saying is longer term there will either be higher prices, or less silver if these mines can't keep operational.

When you hear the old phrases like "buy low sell high" it makes me wonder why people don't like silver now? Will it go to $8 then rise to $16 and stay there forever? For someone wanting the traditional 10% or so as insurance, now is a perfect time. If someone is wanting to go "all in" or "back up the truck" then perhaps it is too soon. But DCA at this level and down (for a brand new buyer especially) is a gift.

As long as a person doesn't need to cash in their silver they really haven't truly "lost" any value. I don't think PM's can go to zero.

Just my opinion.

Jim

I agree that now is a good time for DCA. I really don't think we will go too much lower. We may get down into the $13's but I really don't know. Frankly, it doesn't matter. As you said, unless someone is thinking of "backing up the truck" it really shouldn't matter. If you are DCA and silver goes down to $12 then so what? You will just keep buying.

I still believe that we will not hit bottom for at least a couple more years. And I think we will know when we hit bottom because people will treat silver like "the plague". There will be so much of it available that premiums will be near zero again. And when that happens, I think we'll have a good 5 years or so around that price that will allow us to "back up the truck" if we are so inclined. So until silver has stabilized around a certain price for about two years (with minor fluctuations up and down) then I don't think we will have hit bottom.

So I will not "back up the truck" at this price. But I may start looking into DCA again around the middle of next year. I certainly don't think it could hurt. When it comes time to sell, I'm not going to care too much whether I paid $13 or $14 for most of my silver because I won't be selling unless it hits about $40-50 again. And at that point, $13 vs $14 isn't going to make much difference to me. What will matter at that point is the sheer number of ounces I own.

 

[TheCoinKid]

Jim,
IMO, if an investor bought in during 2001 when the average price was < $4.50 and didn't sell when the price went to 10X, into the 40s, he/she was 'asleep at the wheel' and missed a lifetime chance.
Don....

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