Any silver price short term predictions?

[jim4silver]

Although my calls have been mostly wrong on silver over the past few years (expecting it to recover and gain lost ground), at this point I really have NO clue what silver will do. My gut tells me they will smack the price back to $14 and change, and perhaps lower. Maybe that is just because it has performed so poorly for a long time I am conditioned to expect that.

On the other hand, the price has been holding up recently, even as the dollar gained a little today. I am looking for ANY calls from the folks here, hopefully with a little reasoning on why you expect it to go the direction you are predicting.

On the supply front, my local stores all have silver in good supply again, even though Maples and ASEs still have higher than average premiums. The cheapo generic is back to where it used to be. So much for them "running out of silver".

I am NOT a silver bear but simply pointing out what is obvious. I continue to buy cool foreign and oddball stuff I can get cheap that sells for much higher on ebay so I am not concerned about price dropping if that is what happens.

Picked up this 5 coin slabbed set for $100. Cool coins.

2007 $25 Canadian Olympic "5 Coin Set" NGC Gem Proof Silver | eBay


Jim

 

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[billjustbill]

Jim,

From what I'm seeing with Silvertown and Apmex in the past month, it appears both are really moving lots of Buffalos and generics. Why would they be selling unless they were gambling to buy all what they've sold at a lower price, plus pocket a sizeable profit?

From Gregory Mannarino, he has said that when the Market takes its hit, PM's will drop at the same time before they begin their rise to profitable height and even new heights.... Anytime soon...who knows. It may happen though with how China is now pushing their Yuan: China, Russia, IMF, CIPS, SWIFT System, AIIB, Shanghai, Yen, Yuan
, or by China's government starting last year in investing 120 billion in building or buying up companies that make all those computer chips. It seems that China imports 60% of the chips they use in products they build and export.

It might just be me, but I'm getting the feeling that silver will remain the PM stepchild, leaving gold to be what future markets will operate the new "Deflation" of just about everything in this world. For me, it was hard getting used to buying bullion in 5 and 10-coin lots, not to mention buying rolls of 20! Even when selling scrap copper/brass to offset the PM bottom line cost. Buying gold is on a whole new plane....nothing I can easily relate to... But, I know that if China, India, and Russia are buying by the metric tons, each month, they will be the ones that will ultimately set the new price of gold, not America....

Bill

 

[Dman]

I think the price of silver will bump between $14 and $17 for the next year unless something major happens. I believe after the next presidential election silver will start to move up. If Donald Trump gets elected I believe there will be a HUGE swing up in precious metals.

 

[jim4silver]

I think the price of silver will bump between $14 and $17 for the next year unless something major happens. I believe after the next presidential election silver will start to move up. If Donald Trump gets elected I believe there will be a HUGE swing up in precious metals.

Thanks for responding DMan. That just adds another reason to the list of why I hope "the Donald" gets elected.

Jim

 

[jim4silver]

Maybe we will have more evidence of the short term moves soon. Here is an article below from a guy that is on 321gold each Monday. He is not a PM bug by any means. Basically says "gold market is at a top, UNLESS the bear market is over". Will be curious to see how the next few weeks unfold.

Oct 26, 2015 This past week in gold Jack Chan 321gold ...inc ...s

Jim

 

[Goose-0]

It was mentioned today that the Republicans and Democrats have agreed to "Suspend the cap on the national budget (now at $18.1 BILLION) until September 2017." That to me, means high inflation. Now the guv'mint can spend, spend, spend, without any limits. This (in my opinion) means that P Ms will really go up during the next 22 months, possibly beginning this coming spring. Oh yes, I've purchased small amounts of silver coinage.....generic 1 oz silver Buffalos in Fargo, N D on Saturday and then some G-F Walking Liberty Halves in St Cloud, MN on Sunday. Keep on stacking....it only can get better.

 

[Gold Maven]

I like to read Leonard Melman's monthly report in ICMJ's Mining Journal.

The 5 year graph in his last article shows a steady decline.

Where it bottoms out is anyone's guess in my opinion.

Don't be bummed if it hits 5 bucks, just start stacking.

 

[jim4silver]

I'm thinking $14 and change is on the way again. Maybe even lower. The private mints have been cranking out silver products and my local stores are now flush with generic and the premiums are almost "normal". The premiums on gov bullion are still up a bit but the supply is back. I think that if we hit in the $14's again the supply will stay high because the mints are still probably cranking out the metal and will continue for a while. So there won't be any "we are going to run out of silver" cries probably unless we get to $13 or less.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[joncutt87]

I bought 10 ounces on Wednesday, then it dropped on Thursday.

 

[Mackaydon]

I continue to wait for $12 to buy back in; meanwhile, I have no position in the PM
Don.......

 

[jim4silver]

I continue to wait for $12 to buy back in; meanwhile, I have no position in the PM
Don.......

I think we are going to see another drop soon in silver. I am thinking we will hit $14's within a relatively short time. I don't know how low they will push the paper price down in the near term, but I believe there will not be physical shortages at the stores unless we get to $13.50 or lower.

I am still buying when I get awesome deals. I picked up some US silver dollar commem's recently and got some good ones cheap. Paid $16 each (which was roughly $4 over the melt value of the coin and $20.70 per oz of pure silver). In the "collection" were some better coins: Smithsonian UNC (greysheets at $54), Civil War Proof with non silver half set (greysheets $60), 3- Marine Corp Commem proof coins (greysheets $37- one of my favorite commems), plus many other goodies. All had boxes, COA's, etc. I love the commems. Low mintages relative to ASE's and right now they are simply not popular with silver bugs and stackers (except to the hardcore commem collectors who are out there- I met 4 or 5 local ones who bought from me at the show.) I am stashing these (unless I do ebay or another show) and don't worry about losing $$$ on them. Some of the commem prices have gone up over the past year as silver has fallen in price. I figure silver can drop to $10 and I will still be in the black on my commems. I will though cash out the equity in them if/when silver ever starts going up again. At some point their rich premiums will not keep up with rising bullion prices, but I don't think we are there yet.

I can still satisfy my PM addiction without losing $$$ if silver drops.

PS I did finally breakdown and bought a 2001 Buffalo commem silver dollar proof, cost me $120 (melts at $12), wholesales at $140+. Since I am a commem collector now I figured I needed one. But buying that one helped get me the others at $16 so I am happy.

Here is a pic of one I found online.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/131538100777?ul_noapp=true&chn=ps&lpid=82


Here is the Marine Corps Commem, awesome coin too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Corps_230th_Anniversary_silver_dollar


Just my opinion.


Jim

 

[jim4silver]

I think we are going to see another drop soon in silver. I am thinking we will hit $14's within a relatively short time.
Just my opinion.

Jim

Wow, that only took 3 days. Maybe a reversal tomorrow based on the job's report? Looking forward to tomorrows COT as well for Ag and Au.

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

Will silver hit $12 before rebounding to over $18?
I hope both events happen soon---and in that order.
Don.......

 

[jim4silver]

Will silver hit $12 before rebounding to over $18?
I hope both events happen soon---and in that order.
Don.......

Don,

Hypothetically, if silver hits $12 in the paper market, but an ounce of, say generic, costs $15 or $16 (let's pretend there is another supply issue at that price) do you still buy? Or do you buy SLV or a comex contract to get in at $12 exactly?

Just curious,

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

When silver hits $12, I'll bring my wheelbarrow over to my favorite dealer, pay his 'vig' and drop off the load at my bank; then hang on for $18 and call it a day.
Don.....

 

[Dman]

When silver hits $12, I'll bring my wheelbarrow over to my favorite dealer, pay his 'vig' and drop off the load at my bank; then hang on for $18 and call it a day.
Don.....

Can I bring my wheelbarrow also? lol

 

[Mackaydon]

And if it falls to below $10, I'll back my pickup truck to the dealer's back door--and load up; then wait for $18.
Don......

 

[jim4silver]

And if it falls to below $10, I'll back my pickup truck to the dealer's back door--and load up; then wait for $18.
Don......

If the price goes that low and there is available (relatively cheap) inventory, then I may sell you mine before I go looking for a bridge or tall building to jump from...

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

Hang on Jim, it will go back up; eventually.
Don.....

 

[Mackaydon]

I get the impression the price of silver nowadays has nothing to do with supply side economics; the supply is available. The 'painfully' slow and continuous drop in price seems to be controlled by big players who can manipulate the price through demand--or less demand.
Don....