A way of narrowing down locations of Treasure hunts?

[tintin_treasure]

I read this article on the advantage of Bayesian statistics and its information updating capabilities and its ability to use prior knowledge information for making inferences. Towards the end of the article(the subsection '' At Times a Lifesaver''') it talkes about how they rescued one stranded person in the high seas by narrowing down the location using Bayesian information updating. I wonder if we could extend such data analytic and probabilistic approaches to treasure hunting.As I have done Bayesian stat and other data analytic related stuff in another area in the past, I found it very interesting and wondered if it is being already deployed for treasure hunts.If it is feasible then bits of treasure information from legends,literature,and experts could potentially be used in a very novel way to narrow down search areas.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/s...html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&region&_r=0

tintin treasure

 

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[Crow]

HELLO TT

It might give ya better odds in finding a treasure by methodical and logical research. But the fact remains in history and is a good indicator of most past discoveries was made not from logical deduction but from chance by accident.

Crow

 

[tintin_treasure]

HELLO TT

It might give ya better odds in finding a treasure by methodical and logical research. But the fact remains in history and is a good indicator of most past discoveries was made not from logical deduction but from chance by accident.

Crow

True...but even this scientific method at best can help you narrow down your search area,and it heavily relies on the information you give it...hence the qualitative laborious work of literature review,legend analysis , traditional clue gatherings, expert interviews etc are still indispensable.

tintin treasure

 

[Crow]

Exactly....

Crow

 

[sdcfia]

I would imagine successful detectives have an inherit Bayesian approach to everything. In the treasure hunting realm, human guile and deception is a factor that might be difficult to quantify. There's something about money that skews peoples' judgment.

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

I tend to agree with adcfia: coffee? The mind is a fascinating thing. Don't get me started on it's built in Bayesian abilities..

 

[releventchair]

How does incorrect data affect such methodology in analyzing fact or fiction? Most unrecovered, not counting discovered and off limits, "treasure" that information exists on is unconfirmed , often due to faulty data. The weeding process and probability may be reduced through research but accuracy is tricky on hidden sites.
The Spanish knew where the Atocha sank. The Santa Margarita as well. Potters book, no offence to him missed evidence of there being a record of an eye witness to the wrecks, and he mislocated the sites.
Multiple parties had documents placing the wrecks near the Marquesas Keys. Some if not all based on documents from Seville. A simple translation error of direction from an eyewitness put the focus on the wrong side of the Keys.
East and West reduced to numbers with wrong number as a result destined to be inaccurate also. But despite prior knowledge of both wrecks and in the Santa Margarita's partial salvage in the past , when centuries later the search began what formula resulted in their being relocated?
A test of Bayesian system could await the sterncastle of the Atocha though, and with as much accurate info is available, may work?.
Research findings chosen must be accurate for accurate results.. But how to measure its inputs accuracy of probability? There will be gambles.
Multiple factors, especially of those on site once located and the interpretation of what is there a part of determining odds of success.

 

[Crow]

Hello releventchair regardless of science their will always be an element of luck somewhere in the equation.

Take Howard carters brilliant discovery in Vally of Kings of King tut. The area had been picked over by more esteemed archeologists than Howard carter and deemed the burial chamber was not there. Had for most sakes abandoned the site in which Howard carter who was originally an illustrator but keen on Egyptology discovered the entrance by chance between two excavated tombs of other more esteemed archeologists.

Crow

 

[tintin_treasure]

the Bayesian use of probability is a bit different. Roughly put It deals with subjective judgments or degree of beliefs unlike the classical statistics. Hence the task is trying to depict your degree of beleif in probablity terms . Expert's opinions can even be elicited and represented as probability distribution that represent the uncertainties the expert has.Or it could be point probabilities rather than distributions depending on the context.The researcher depending on all the data he gathered whether reliable or unreliable could quantify his uncertainties in probability terms.If multiple experts are involved weighting schemes can be used taking account thier level of experience.That could be a prior information in a Bayesian setting and along with any observed empirical data(again represented in probability terms) an inference in probablity terms can be made .And when new data or information arises the prior information is continuously updated getting better and better.Ofcourse quantifying qualitative information or eliciting expert opinions in probability terms is not an easy task. However I believe such kind of basic framework is behind the sophisticated Bayesian based navigation system they used to rescue the stranded guy in narrowing down the search area.It would be interesting if we could get hand on that software for treasure hunting,,I also suspect it could be in sync with gps and gis data systems as well.

tintin treasure

 

[Old Silver]

Personally, I don't think there's any substitute for hands on research. There's a personal relationship that the t'hunter develops with his lead, something he sort of develop a feel for. I don't think any program could be better than that. Of course I'm not opposed to any help I can get.

 

[releventchair]

Lucky for me luck is a factor, it gives hope!. Howards passion factored very strongly as well.
tintin your post has made me dizzy. O.k.,more dizzy.

 

[Crow]

TT statistical information might be helpful I have no doubt... Just like a gambler calculating the odds is it not?

But After sailing the South pacific for 9 months and two voyages before that when ya have all the scientific data available on winds and tides nothing is 100% predictable not matter how scientists try to make us think. There is another theory that has lost some favor with some scientists. called Chaos Theory.

Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics , with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, hydrology, sociology, physics,engineering, economics, biology and philosophy. that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a response popularly referred to as the butterfly affect . Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.[SUP] [/SUP]This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved.[SUP] [/SUP]In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.[SUP][/SUP][SUP][/SUP]This behavior is known as deterministic chaos.

Many factors need to be considered when researching in which might take years. Have the records survived? Reliability of records, the environmental factors, time and other influential events after the burial of such treasure. Post modern urbanism has been the biggest problem. For example a small treasure buried out side a rural village in 1800. 2014 there is now a city over the site in question is under a wall mart.

Crow

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

Crow, on the Tayopa search two unconfirmable points. which were later proven wrong, led to a positive laterconfirmble point go figure

 

[Crow]

Crow, on the Tayopa search two unconfirmable points. which were later proven wrong, led to a positive laterconfirmble point go figure

One such research trail led me through 30 odd country's only to find the documents over 25 years of searching was only discover the documents in the hands of descendant who lived less than 5 km away from where I lived. How Ironic?

I love scientists to calculate that equation?

Crow

 

[tintin_treasure]

Thanks Crow...I agree with what you said. We are dealing and moving through a complex system with high degree of non linearities and diverse causal factors and feedbacks. Even the advanced Navies with thier seemingly advanced navigation system could not locate the Malaysian plane,even though various sightings of crash materials were seen here and there.They claimed to narrow down the search area,but unfortunately that search area is still a vast area.Hence it is a difficult task.As I initially said at best such methods in practice might help us narrow down a search area to some extent and also may appeal as a framework where vague knowledge is represented and communicated in a formalized way.But they can never replace the actual qualitative research we conduct.

tintin treasure

 

[Crow]

Hello TT Side thing there is more than meets the eye with that Malaysian Plane....An Oil rigworker in the South China sea off Vietnam reported an explosion from him it got him suddenly fired from his job?

And 8 others in village reported a loud explosion??

MISSING MH370: Terengganu police receive report on explosion in Marang - Latest - New Straits Times

Oil rig worker...What happened to him? : MH370

And all the governments are looking in the Indian Ocean off Australia.??

I think there is political reason why they do not want that plane wreckage found

And its not because they cannot find it.....

Crow

 

[tintin_treasure]

Hello TT Side thing there is more than meets the eye with that Malaysian Plane....An Oil rigworker in the South China sea off Vietnam reported an explosion for him it got his suddenly sack from his job?

And 8 others in village reported a loud explosion??

MISSING MH370: Terengganu police receive report on explosion in Marang - Latest - New Straits Times

Oil rig worker...What happened to him? : MH370

And all the governments are looking in the Indian Ocean off Australia.??

I think there is political reason why they do not want that plane wreckage found

And its not because they cannot find it.....

Crow

that is strange and quite interesting Crow

tintin treasure

 

[Crow]

The best way when it comes down to narrowing treasure leads is through research and lots of it.

Crow.

 

[doc-d]

You are dealing with humans and human efforts, the result too often seems to be…. the old, garbage in, garbage out……..
the old lies, darn lies and statistics.

Now the research and our wise old, presently sober, bird's rules to discern those legends worth pursuing seems to be a great guide.

And clearly it is work, takes much time, effort and expense……..not to mention luck.

As for the Malaysian plane, there is NO question at least a few gov's know the exact location of this………the crap on the TV and media are lies and propaganda……

 

[tintin_treasure]

You are dealing with humans and human efforts, the result too often seems to be…. the old, garbage in, garbage out……..
the old lies, darn lies and statistics.

Now the research and our wise old, presently sober, bird's rules to discern those legends worth pursuing seems to be a great guide.

And clearly it is work, takes much time, effort and expense……..not to mention luck.

As for the Malaysian plane, there is NO question at least a few gov's know the exact location of this………the crap on the TV and media are lies and propaganda……

Here is a dailymail article on that suspicion..On unrelated note there has been recent investigate reports on Boeing as well...

CIA knows something about missing Flight MH370, says former Malaysian PM Dr Mahathir | Daily Mail Online

tintin treasure