Three Hikers Missing What Happened Where Are They

[SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN]

Any way id hate to think what "might" have happened to me, Had i in fact put my boots on the ground. Ive never been to the superstitions in my entire life. What Happened To Them? WHERE ARE THEY? ANYBODY HAVE ANY IDEAS? 3 Large Full Grown Men. Missing. Merworth had been on two hunts before and made it home what was so different about this trip? A member here on treasure net said they had my information/location. Was this the only difference from the other two times? Merworths Mother said: He her son was Sure He Was Going To Find The Lost Dutchmans Mine. Why was he so SURE?

 

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[SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN]

Any way id hate to think what "might" have happened to me, Had i in fact put my boots on the ground. Ive never been to the superstitions in my entire life. What Happened To Them? WHERE ARE THEY? ANYBODY HAVE ANY IDEAS? 3 Large Full Grown Men. Missing. Merworth had been on two hunts before and made it home what was so different about this trip? A member here on treasure net said they had my information/location. Was this the only difference from the other two times? Merworths Mother said: He her son was Sure He Was Going To Find The Lost Dutchmans Mine. Why was he so SURE?

Early in my discovery Lyndon P. Graves Contacted me on my space and later here on treasure net, saying he was observing the area in person and said there was infact POACHERS at the mine. Did the police ever question lyndon about this?

 

[SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN]

Since The Day Of My Discovery I have felt very threatened, and intimidated. My mother has feared for my life, from day one of my discovery, Why would my own mother have such a sense of fear from day one of my discovery? She has talked me out of going to the supers in person 5 times. She has always said if i ever Check out my location in person it would be SUICIDE. She has always known through instinct and intuition. She has had bad feelings about this discovery of mine from day one, and it is and has caused her alot of worry and stress. And i feel bad for that, but also ive come way to far with this discovery. I cant take it back, I have Made History. Sincerely John V. Kemm

 

[SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN]

Whats really Strange Is Its Like This Keeps Ringing In My Head Because it keeps getting repeated, over and over and over, by only certain individuals. "No Evidence" "No Evidence" "No Evidence" "No Evidence" "No Evidence" "No Evidence" "No Evidence" 1947 – A prospector name James A. Cravey made a much-publicized trip into the Superstition canyons by helicopter, searching for the Lost Dutchman Mine. The pilot set him down in La Barge Canyon, close to Weaver’s Needle. When Cravey failed to hike out as planned, a search was started and although his camp was found, Cravey was not.

The following February, his headless skeleton was found in a canyon, a good distance from his camp. It was tied in a blanket and his skull was found about thirty feet away. The coroner’s jury ruled that there was """"no evidence"""" of foul play.”
Why are certain people SEEMINGLY obsessed With these VERY FAMOUS WORDS? I say """"Absolute Evidence"""" and they Shout - no evidence - whats really going on here?

 

[Javaone]

My sincere appologies to the family members of the missing hikers. There are a couple of members that have been put on "ignore" by many of the members on this site. It seems he will try to do/say anything, or use anyone to get attension.

My hope and preyers are are with the hikers and their families, along with the men and women still searching.

Jerry

 

[SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN]

""""It seems he will try to do/say anything, or use anyone to get attension""" This is Absurd and I apologise to the familys about this obvious Repression of my freedom of speech. I am being the only one on this forum who is being totally on the table up front and clear Addressing The Real :ISSUES" if that is an inconvienience to any one id like to know WHY?

 

[SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN]

My Hope And True Prayers Are Truly With The Familys. "Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me; Your rod and Your staff, they comfort me." Please Pray This With Me

 

[Blindbowman]

where did they enter the supers from
..
what was there hight and weight,
,
when was the last time they ate ..

what is their ages

how good of health were they in ..?

did any of them have frist hand wisdom of the area they enterd .

how did they get to where they enterd the mts ..

what type of foot ware did they have ..

how much water did they have

how much meds did they have with them .. and

who had what type of meds ..

dose anyone know if they took day packs with them or were they just hikeing ..?

under line medical conditions ...

what was there avg hikeing distences ?

has anyone compiled a sequence of patterns in the event yet ?

if they got to the mts in a car who own it ...

if the enterd the mts do we know what time the enterd the mts ?

time span to dusk ..in question .. after dark nothing moves out there thats human ..

did any of them have cuts or sores any open wonds ??

what is the most logical dirrection they headed into the mts .. if they walked into he sun ,the way back would have put the sun at their backs and its hard to judge sun set that way .. if your talking in a small group they may have lost track of time ...

do they ware glasses

do they ware a watch ..

say they could not make it back before dark ... did any of them smoke or have a way to start a fire ..



each person has a body index , a group of people can only go as fast and as far as the weakest person in the group ..

this is how i would find them ... this is just a starter out line .. if you get me some data i will try to detail their direction and logical patterns ..

 

[texan connection]

has anyone heard anymore about these guys?

 

[cactusjumper]

T.C.,

There is still no sign of the three missing men, nor of Jesse Capen. Superstition Search and Rescue is still looking for them all. Civilian volunteers have been assisting them.

Joe Ribaudo

 

[NativeOne]

I have an idea that could help. Search and rescue teams could have better statistics on their side in deciding where to look.
http://forms.cognos.com/?elqPURLPage=4333&mc=-web_spss_gaw_download&gclid=CPnhkb6B-qMCFUeW7Qod7DlRIQ http://www.springerlink.com/content/40013h2524576007/fulltext.pdf A Bayesian approach to modeling lost person behaviors based on terrain features in Wilderness Search and Rescue. Computer models predicts path of lost hikers
September 8, 2010 (PhysOrg.com) -- The next time a anyone is lost in the wilderness, search and rescue teams could have better statistics on their side in deciding where to look.


SPSS Statistics Download - Get Your Free 14-Day Trial of SPSS Statistics 19 Right Now.



The next time a anyone is lost in the wilderness, search and rescue teams could have better statistics on their side in deciding where to look.

Lanny Lin, a Ph.D. candidate in Brigham Young University’s Computer Science Department, has developed computer models to predict where a lost hiker will go when he or she encounters tough terrain.

These techniques - which appear in the journal Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory - could help searchers better allocate their resources as they race against time and nature.

“As time progresses, the survivability of the missing person decreases and the effective search radius increases by approximately 3 kilometers per hour,” note Lin and BYU professor Michael Goodrich in their paper.

Lin’s statistical model calculates the most likely path a person would take when he or she comes across steep slopes, dense vegetation or water.

This predictive model starts with the point where a person was last seen and incorporates the amount of time he or she has been missing. The method combines this information with topographical data, vegetation, slope and terrain of the area and uses that to update the statistical estimates to help in the search.

In the study, Lin describes a plausible scenario where a Boy Scout becomes lost near Payson Lake. While searchers would have fanned out following the Scout’s original course of travel, the missing boy most likely would have looped back behind them when moving from a forest area to a nearby slope.

The statistical predictions are just one element of Lin and Goodrich’s search and rescue research. The magazine Popular Science featured an unmanned aerial vehicle that they’ve equipped with cameras to spot someone lost in the wilderness. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation.

Goodrich, a professor in the Computer Science Department, serves as Lin’s mentor in his doctoral work. Both are quick to give credit to all others involved in the project, emphasizing that they are just a small part of something that is hugely collaborative.

“We are building off a very long tradition,” said Goodrich. “Lanny has taken a big step forward in merging existing technologies into one method that will aid in rescuing those who get lost.”

 

[Springfield]

I have an idea that could help. Search and rescue teams could have better statistics on their side in deciding where to look.
http://forms.cognos.com/?elqPURLPage=4333&mc=-web_spss_gaw_download&gclid=CPnhkb6B-qMCFUeW7Qod7DlRIQ http://www.springerlink.com/content/40013h2524576007/fulltext.pdf A Bayesian approach to modeling lost person behaviors based on terrain features in Wilderness Search and Rescue. Computer models predicts path of lost hikers
September 8, 2010 (PhysOrg.com) -- The next time a anyone is lost in the wilderness, search and rescue teams could have better statistics on their side in deciding where to look.


SPSS Statistics Download - Get Your Free 14-Day Trial of SPSS Statistics 19 Right Now.



The next time a anyone is lost in the wilderness, search and rescue teams could have better statistics on their side in deciding where to look.

Lanny Lin, a Ph.D. candidate in Brigham Young University’s Computer Science Department, has developed computer models to predict where a lost hiker will go when he or she encounters tough terrain.

These techniques - which appear in the journal Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory - could help searchers better allocate their resources as they race against time and nature.

“As time progresses, the survivability of the missing person decreases and the effective search radius increases by approximately 3 kilometers per hour,” note Lin and BYU professor Michael Goodrich in their paper.

Lin’s statistical model calculates the most likely path a person would take when he or she comes across steep slopes, dense vegetation or water.

This predictive model starts with the point where a person was last seen and incorporates the amount of time he or she has been missing. The method combines this information with topographical data, vegetation, slope and terrain of the area and uses that to update the statistical estimates to help in the search.

In the study, Lin describes a plausible scenario where a Boy Scout becomes lost near Payson Lake. While searchers would have fanned out following the Scout’s original course of travel, the missing boy most likely would have looped back behind them when moving from a forest area to a nearby slope.

The statistical predictions are just one element of Lin and Goodrich’s search and rescue research. The magazine Popular Science featured an unmanned aerial vehicle that they’ve equipped with cameras to spot someone lost in the wilderness. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation.

Goodrich, a professor in the Computer Science Department, serves as Lin’s mentor in his doctoral work. Both are quick to give credit to all others involved in the project, emphasizing that they are just a small part of something that is hugely collaborative.

“We are building off a very long tradition,” said Goodrich. “Lanny has taken a big step forward in merging existing technologies into one method that will aid in rescuing those who get lost.”

New software but old news. The ideas and statisical data that forms the framework for this software have been known and used for generations. It is taught to Incident Commanders and forms the basis of all SAR plans used during missions. More importantly, you also need experience, resources, a knowledge of the terrain and the ability to locate clues in the field that hopefully track the subject's path. The software's usefulness in real life may be as a training tool - its field usefulness needs to be demonstrated.

 

[cactusjumper]

Springfield,

"New software but old news. The ideas and statisical data that forms the framework for this software have been known and used for generations. It is taught to Incident Commanders and forms the basis of all SAR plans used during missions. More importantly, you also need experience, resources, a knowledge of the terrain and the ability to locate clues in the field that hopefully track the subject's path. The software's usefulness in real life may be as a training tool - its field usefulness needs to be demonstrated."

Nice post.

Take care,

Joe

 

[ray in ny]

I, too, cannot help wondering what in the world happened to them. I have read about the Lost Dutchman for over 40 years. The instances of individuals vanishing or meeting foul play are many and well-documented.
But THREE, all at the same time? Is there any precedent for this in Lost Dutchman lore? Seems unbelievable that three grown men, all together, can vanish simultaneously without a trace.
Just my two cents.

 

[Blindbowman]

where you from in NY ray ..?

i am in st lawrence way up north ..

 

[Blindbowman]

Springfield,

"New software but old news. The ideas and statisical data that forms the framework for this software have been known and used for generations. It is taught to Incident Commanders and forms the basis of all SAR plans used during missions. More importantly, you also need experience, resources, a knowledge of the terrain and the ability to locate clues in the field that hopefully track the subject's path. The software's usefulness in real life may be as a training tool - its field usefulness needs to be demonstrated."

Nice post.

Take care,

Joe

i have to agree with joe on this one .. the only way to find someone is put your self in there state of mind when they went in the mts and try to logically replay their flight of path .... in jesse capen case i tracked him back to the secound afternoon .. in a canyon a prefect flash flood area . i still believe he is in that area .. if i had the data i was talking about above i may have a far better chance of finding these men then any program could .. a profiling program only is as good as the data feed to it ..



every person makes choices that fit their own logical thaught patterns ... common logic can only get you so close to their pattern .. sense get even closer...

sense his next move ... reply his path ...

were did these guys enter the mt from and what what time of day .. i guess that would be the first place to start in my profiling system ,,,?

 

[NativeOne]

Springfield,

"New software but old news. The ideas and statisical data that forms the framework for this software have been known and used for generations. It is taught to Incident Commanders and forms the basis of all SAR plans used during missions. More importantly, you also need experience, resources, a knowledge of the terrain and the ability to locate clues in the field that hopefully track the subject's path. The software's usefulness in real life may be as a training tool - its field usefulness needs to be demonstrated."

Nice post.

Take care,

Joe

Data Mining is often considered to be "a blend of statistics, "AI (artificial intelligence)", and data base research", which "until very recently" was "not" commonly recognized as a field of interest for statisticians, and was even considered by some "a dirty word in Statistics". Due to its applied importance, however, the field emerges as a rapidly growing and major area (also in statistics) where important theoretical advances are being made (see, for example, the recent annual International Conferences on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, co-hosted by the American Statistical Association). Travis B.

 

[NativeOne]

And maybe this could help as well. We live in a free society which can often be dangerous. Conservation enforcement officials need the best technology to keep us safe, but often their budgets will not allow them to hire such advanced equipment. Not anymore.

The Draganflyer X6 helicopter is the perfect platform for surveying areas where hunting, poaching, or environmental offences might be occurring. Instead of hiring an expensive helicopter, or sending a human into a potentially dangerous situation, you can use the Draganflyer X6 helicopter to capture the video evidence you need.
http://www.draganfly.com/uav-helicopter/draganflyer-x6/applications/government.php

 

[Blindbowman]

And maybe this could help as well. We live in a free society which can often be dangerous. Conservation enforcement officials need the best technology to keep us safe, but often their budgets will not allow them to hire such advanced equipment. Not anymore.

The Draganflyer X6 helicopter is the perfect platform for surveying areas where hunting, poaching, or environmental offences might be occurring. Instead of hiring an expensive helicopter, or sending a human into a potentially dangerous situation, you can use the Draganflyer X6 helicopter to capture the video evidence you need.
http://www.draganfly.com/uav-helicopter/draganflyer-x6/applications/government.php
[/quot

that's out dated ... already ...lol

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

MI amigo BB, you posted -> that's out dated ... already
*************

Geeze you almost blew it, I was just filling out the order when your post saved me, gracious. Sides I need a 1000 meter range ability.

Don Jose de La Mancha