Would you guys sell your stash now?

[SFBayArea]

In looking at the chart for silver, it doesn't really look good. The resistance point is around 30.. If it breaks, look out below, it could crash back down to 26. Trust me, I'm hoping it can bounce back and hold at 30 but along with the stock market, they both don't look good.

I've always been big on holding and adding to reserves but yet I sold 40%ers for $5.50 each when they were $40.50/oz. a few months ago and recently shipped off a few more at $4.15 each earlier this week. Sad to be parting with the hard work brought into gathering them but at some point, gotta be smart about it. I've unloaded about 45% of my CRH silver holdings recently. All of them being 40%ers but I've kept all 90%ers.

Wonder what everyone else thinks. One thing that I've learned recently about the commodities and stock market is that traders dictate the price not supply/demand or news. Once the traders get real bearish on something, it seems hard to stop until it gets real oversold or vice versa. In looking back, should've sold at around $48/oz because that's when it was overbought. It's shame but traders control the market through futures contracts and paper has power over physical. None of them are interested in the physical.

If the CRH finds were easy to comeby and I could consistantly get it like in certain areas of the country, I could hold on by making up for the losses on the spot price by new finds. But finds are slim around these parts so I've decided to sell 45% as my hedge against prices going down. Anyone else planning to unload or stay?

 

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[SilverFace]

If you sell what would you do with the money - keep it in cash or some other USD denominated asset? That's the problem. The USD and US bond market crisis is coming - it's just a matter of when. Trying to time it and owning USD's and US Stocks & Bonds is way to risky for me. I supose if you put the money in other commodities that would be one safest thing. Last I heard Jimmy Rogers was still mostly bullish on silver and ag. - he's ususally one of my top investment advisors.

 

[SFBayArea]

If you sell what would you do with the money - keep it in cash or some other USD denominated asset? That's the problem. The USD and US bond market crisis is coming - it's just a matter of when. USD's and US Stocks & Bonds are way to risky assets for me.

I don't do US Bonds (Bond rates are a joke).. but I'm just seeing PM prices going down on the chart in the short term and the US dollar going up. Unless the FED decides to do more QE, the dollar isn't declining. The traders are running the dollar up due to Euro issues.

PM's maybe good in the long run like in 20 years but who knows? Short term wise I see them going down too despite what the folks in the PM's sector say about them being protection against all that goes bad.

The money from the sales will go to pay bills and for me to do the stock market. I'm fairly new to it but I do both buying and shorting. Whatever the market dictates so up, down, it doesn't matter as long as it moves. As far as the market goes, I don't invest. I just trade and don't hold positions over night since God knows where they will open the next day.

 

[Gilmore Happy]

I really love this topic. I called the crash 2 months ago within 0.50 cents $28.00 somthing. As of now, I believe we will see silver in the $20's over December...putting my forecasting rep on the line again.

As much as I hate to see silver go down, I also love it, as I am a buyer of .999 under $30 (Ive been buying .999 since it was $12/oz before I found out about CRH this May ). Saying that, I'll be holding ALL my CRH finds until silver is at least $50+/OZ because when I started this, I figured that the finds were really worth my time once silver was at 50plus. So all the CRH finds I find now...I am banking off the fact that the time/effort it took to get them, will be more worth it when I sell at 50plus.

I hope that makes sense...basically Im very long in silver.

 

[SFBayArea]

I really love this topic. I called the crash 2 months ago within 0.50 cents $28.00 somthing. As of now, I believe we will see silver in the $20's over December...putting my forecasting rep on the line again.

As much as I hate to see silver go down, I also love it, as I am a buyer of .999 under $30 (Ive been buying .999 since it was $12/oz before I found out about CRH this May ). Saying that, I'll be holding ALL my CRH finds until silver is at least $50+/OZ because when I started this, I figured that the finds were really worth my time once silver was at 50plus. So all the CRH finds I find now...I am banking off the fact that the time/effort it took to get them, will be more worth it when I sell at 50plus.

I hope that makes sense...basically Im very long in silver.

But why not just lock in the gains? Wait till it gets oversold and re-buy? You'd do better if you were taking advantage of all the price movements in between rather than waiting for that long bull run that only God knows when it's going to be.

Trust me, I love my CRH finds. It was hard to part with them. I got rid of the majority of 40%ers since those have a higher silver price/oz-face value ratio than 90%ers. In looking back, I was glad I got rid of a bunch at $40.50/oz. Only to see the crash a few days later. Now, I'm seeing it again and sold off a smaller portion at around $32.20/oz. I can see why people do paper contracts. Lots of work to count them, package them, and ship them off. Wished I was out east where I could just easily replace ones I sell by new finds.

 

[CardsNCoins]

I have not sold one piece, and have no plans to sell any going forward.

If you are short on cash for bills and such then you have to do what you have to do, but if you are not in a cash-poor position, then hold.

 

[SFBayArea]

I have not sold one piece, and have no plans to sell any going forward.

If you are short on cash for bills and such then you have to do what you have to do, but if you are not in a cash-poor position, then hold.

Silver has been tougher to come by in these parts these days so that made my decision easier. Still have those 90%ers. Perhaps if prices do come down, finds will pick up.. Finds were much better two years ago.

 

[clovis97]

I have not sold one piece, and have no plans to sell any going forward.

If you are short on cash for bills and such then you have to do what you have to do, but if you are not in a cash-poor position, then hold.

+1

The only other scenario I would sell would be for a sure-fire investment that would out-earn what I thought silver could return. For instance, we recently missed out on a foreclosure house that could have been bought for a song, and easily rented at $850 a month. That house would have been nothing but profit after a couple of years in rent.

 

[Gilmore Happy]

I hate having stagnant money (underperforming money), so I am constantly moving my extra money around. I definitely battle with the idea of $1000's worth of CRH finds just sitting there letting the market dictate the value when those $1000's could be working harder for me in something else.

So one of the main reasons why I am just going to hold is because financially, I can afford to right now. I have other vehicles making me money, working hard, so I don't have to worry about the short term performance of this part of my investments. Yes, if I would have known $48-$49 was going to be the top, I would've sold a majority and captured those gains. But because I think silver is going 50+ within 3 years, I'll be holding until then, not stressing out about all the short term-fluctuations.

I did have an idea though to trade the swings 2-3 times a year. What I mean, is buying "electronically" when people are panicking on the silver drops. Then when it recovers 1-3 months later, sell it. Wait for the drop panic, buy, then sell 1-3 months again. I believe you can do this effectively and make good money 2-3 times a year. Plus it's alot less stressful then trading daily/weekly. Im a finance major from ASU, got that T-shirt, and that's a stressful game although lucrative.

 

[SFBayArea]

I hate having stagnant money (underperforming money), so I am constantly moving my extra money around. I definitely battle with the idea of $1000's worth of CRH finds just sitting there letting the market dictate the value when those $1000's could be working harder for me in something else.

So one of the main reasons why I am just going to hold is because financially, I can afford to right now. I have other vehicles making me money, working hard, so I don't have to worry about the short term performance of this part of my investments. Yes, if I would have known $48-$49 was going to be the top, I would've sold a majority and captured those gains. But because I think silver is going 50+ within 3 years, I'll be holding until then, not stressing out about all the short term-fluctuations.

I did have an idea though to trade the swings 2-3 times a year. What I mean, is buying "electronically" when people are panicking on the silver drops. Then when it recovers 1-3 months later, sell it. Wait for the drop panic, buy, then sell 1-3 months again. I believe you can do this effectively and make good money 2-3 times a year. Plus it's alot less stressful then trading daily/weekly. Im a finance major from ASU, got that T-shirt, and that's a stressful game although lucrative.

In looking back, I didn't know how to read the chart at the time but yeah.. it's very obvious now that at $48 range, it was too high. It ran up too far too quickly. Those are usually followed up by a sharp correction downward. The same goes for downspikes. These trends as they call them often end with a long sharp move. So if silver continues down, past 30.. it could be followed by a move to 26. If it can't find support there, then it'll be heading back down to the low 20's. It's all worst-case scenario. Don't want to scare everyone but it's all info I've seen before on the market. People who have invested at 20-30 will be kicking themselves if they didn't get out at around 40-50 range. Again, traders dictate the market not fundamentals. I've seen companies have great quarters yet the stock barely moves or moves one day and tanks the next along with the rest of the market. The news then always comes up with some reason whether legit or not. That's why I don't believe all those gold bugs now that they say that gold is the ultimate safety instrument. I used to believe them but not anymore.

All panic drops as you call them (sudden drops) will be followed by a period of rebound. If the price cannot rebound back to the original price where it dropped from, it will then drop again perhaps even lower. All fast moves are followed by pullback or correction and that is what you are describing. If you're going to do what you plan on doing, give yourself a timeline to do it. Do not hold for too long if it can not overcome it's previous drop point.

 

[Brush64]

I agree with Nick. I have not sold one CRH piece I have found. I keep it because...I want to. My CRH silver is basically my hobby, so I'm not too concerned about trading it or trying to time the dips. I do that with my other primary investment money (both physical and paper).

If CRH represents the majority of your silver investment/holding, then perhaps you have to do what you have to do in order to raise $$ to pay your bills. But for me, I enjoy the hunt and if I miss out on a few dips along the way, so be it. I'm having more fun accumulating and keeping it...but again, this is a hobby for me, not a necessary income means.

You need to look at the reason you are either buying or hunting for your silver...and then go from there.

 

[SFBayArea]

I agree with Nick. I have not sold one CRH piece I have found. I keep it because...I want to. My CRH silver is basically my hobby, so I'm not too concerned about trading it or trying to time the dips. I do that with my other primary investment money (both physical and paper).

If CRH represents the majority of your silver investment/holding, then perhaps you have to do what you have to do in order to raise $$ to pay your bills. But for me, I enjoy the hunt and if I miss out on a few dips along the way, so be it. I'm having more fun accumulating and keeping it...but again, this is a hobby for me, not a necessary income means.

You need to look at the reason you are either buying or hunting for your silver...and then go from there.

Believe me, I enjoy this hobby just like everyone else here but in looking back, I like to lock in prices. That is part of investing right? No one wants to get in at a certain price, not sell for a profit, and only to see the price go back to where they got it at. Granted as far as CRHing goes, we're not likely to see the price go lower than what we got them for (no real loss) but labor and gas counts too right? I've pretty moved everything to do the market so for me, I need a little extra to do bills so for me it makes sense. I was just curious what everyone's thoughts were if the market was to keep dropping that's all.

Yeah, it was definitely hard for me to part with them. I even took pics of them before being sent off. I've held many of them for a long long time. I've been CRH for 10+ years and that's the only time I've sold such a large quantity. But I didn't sell everything so I am hoping for a rebound

 

[TheRockDoc]

So look SFBay, Im not an expert, or anywhere even close. I do follow what you are saying about the trends and what not, and I understand the technicals to some degree. When I look at a 3-5 yr chart for example, I see many many bullish runs, with sharp corrections. Some of those corrections would have given me heart problems had I been as active in it as I am today (not cause I wanted to sell in fear of losing more $$, but because I wouldnt have had enough money to buy enough at those rock bottom prices).... With all that said, I cant understand why you would sell any of your silver unless you absolutely NEED money right now, today. Otherwise, for me, I cannot find any reason that this recent pull back is anything different than the tens of other pullbacks/corrections we have seen in the last few yrs. I look at a 5 year chart on silver and I see a pretty obvious trend, so unless you think that silver could be in a bubble-which I dont obviously, What makes you at all confident that this recent pull back isnt going to be followed by another bull run? Possibly the one that breaks through that new high? I understand what you say about how manipulated the market is by institutional traders, and speculators.. How much of an effect will that have long-term (1-5) yrs on silver with all the additional factors now though? Fiat currency issue, economical issue, physical demand rising quicker than ever-exponentially so due to developing countries (bullion and industrial uses), etc... On top of all that silver is a finite resource. It is much harder to verbalize this type of conversation than I imagined, hopefully this makes sense. I guess my point is this, Unless silver is in a bubble like some say it is, (which again, I cannot imagine that being the case-maybe because I am in love with it, and I cant seperate emotion from the facts.. not sure yet) I just cant imagine Silver or gold, being in a bubble at or even close at this point.

-So out of all the known factors, what has changed or could change that would indicate to you this pullback isnt just like all the other short-term corrections that happen right before a bearish run into new high territory?

*Even if you did just need the money right now today, and felt more confident selling at 30 now than 25 or 20 in a month or two from now, please answer with your thoughts on my question... I want to know what I am not factoring when thinking that unless silver is in a bubble, how could right now be different from any of the bearish corrections in the last 3 yrs?

 

[TheRockDoc]

Another question SFbay, if you care to share.... How have you been educating yourself about trading? I know there are a gazillion resources out there to learn how to make money in the financial markets, with even more opininions than that.... I used to sell coaching programs for the stock market (options mostly), and also real estate... So I am just curious, as it sounds like your knowledge on charts and what not is relatively recent.

 

[db23]

I am going to be selling 40s eventually and either trade up to gold or .999 silver. I know there is a loss on both ends, but I'd still come out in front and I just don't have the storage capacity for all of the 40s I've been finding. Never in my wildest did I think I'd already be almost finished filling my 3rd box of 40s.

I will not sell a single one while physical metals are in lock step with the stock market. Once physical breaks free we'll have a whole new game.

 

[SFBayArea]

Another question SFbay, if you care to share.... How have you been educating yourself about trading? I know there are a gazillion resources out there to learn how to make money in the financial markets, with even more opininions than that.... I used to sell coaching programs for the stock market (options mostly), and also real estate... So I am just curious, as it sounds like your knowledge on charts and what not is relatively recent.

I have been working on this stuff for 40 hours per week for the last few months and went through a lot of my own money as any new trader who didn't know anything in the beginning so I prefer not to get into it. I basically spent a ton of my own money in making my own mistakes and went through a bunch of different ideas. After a while and staring at charts forever, you pick up on patterns that emerge over and over again. A lot of it just comes down to the ability to read the charts and see the patterns. So I sold part of my collection to help pay for some bills as I have lost in the early going. However, recently I've gotten better as I've spent a lot of time on chart reading and less focused on indicators. I just do trades but don't do options as that is extremely tough to predict that far into the future for me. Short term is better for me.

In looking at the 5-10 yr chart.. it looks very obvious that the current downward move is very strong. I don't know why you think it's just a plain regular correction of the last three years. After all those corrections where all in a bull market. The market now is bearish with continuous new lows (that is the difference). There hasn't been any corrections this strong prior to this year. This is what sticks out so I disagree about what you said on the last few years. Since 48/oz, there has been sharp downward spikes with only modest pullbacks yet none of the pullbacks could overcome it's previous high so the bear remains. The moves just look strong and has happened 3 times which is something that hasn't happened during the bull run. I used to get confused at why a bull or bear market can suddenly appear out of nowhere. However the issue is that these trends once they get started are tough to stop and can last months. A lot of price movement will mean that it will continue to move. A bottom will be where the price will not move for a while. So if we reach 28-30 range and it stays there for weeks, then we can probably see a reversal so the bears give up. Bear drops are usually faster than Bull rises because of the fear trade. I have explained earlier why the fiat currency isn't an issue right now unless they do more money printing. The dollar has gone up due to issues with the Euro which isn't good for PMs.

I honestly hope that I am wrong and that it can hold around the 28-30 range because I still have a little over half of my collection remaining.

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts.html

 

[SFBayArea]

I am going to be selling 40s eventually and either trade up to gold or .999 silver. I know there is a loss on both ends, but I'd still come out in front and I just don't have the storage capacity for all of the 40s I've been finding. Never in my wildest did I think I'd already be almost finished filling my 3rd box of 40s.

I will not sell a single one while physical metals are in lock step with the stock market. Once physical breaks free we'll have a whole new game.

wow.. you have 3 boxes of 40%ers? Wow.. that's 3000 40%ers!! That's way more than I ever had in 10 years of my searching. You guys are in the best area in the states!!

 

[CardsNCoins]

......I like to lock in prices. That is part of investing right?.........

I do not look at my finds as investments. Just spoils of a fun and cool hobby. Yeah it's a lot of money and I don't like to see it go down, but I believe the future for silver prices are higher, so I want to have all my ounces working for me when it goes back up.

......No one wants to get in at a certain price, not sell for a profit, and only to see the price go back to where they got it at........

If it was hunted and not bought then the price you got it at was $3.38 per ounce for 40%, and $1.38 per ounce for 90%, so even if it is an investment to you I think you're OK.

......I need a little extra to do bills so for me it makes sense........

That, as I mentioned above, is a very valid reason to cash in your spoils.

 

[CaptainRobin]

I sell/trade all 40%, keep all 90%. I grew up in the days when 90% silver coin was REAL money. It will always be real money, so I keep it. It was found at face value, not much of an investment, but the value has multiplied greatly. Kinda like veggie seeds, fishhooks, handtools and bullets. They'll keep, you always have 'em, and you can trade, barter, buy with them if the world as we know it comes to an end... and I kinda/sorta think that is on the way. Just my two COPPER cents, although I don't "do" cents... just pull the copper ones from pocket change. I don't do gold or .999... I want coin in case I ever have need for it.
Robin

 

[Local_coins]

Very good topic.

I started CRHing when silver was $4 an ounce and occasionally less that that about 10 years ago. I have sold some since then when it hit $18 but I also had a purpose for the cash (too bad you can't just use silver...). If I had a purpose now, I could part with some of it. Definitely I would part with the 40% coins. I have a harder time selling the 90% coins.

Gold and silver seem to be out of proportion right now. Either gold will tumble or silver will rise. When I started CRH I never imagined I would see close to $50 an ounce and that happened. I guess I need to set a new goal.