Where is the silver price headed short term?

[jim4silver]

I want to see what you all think about where the price of silver is headed short term. Long term I still believe we will see $100 or more silver someday when the physical and paper prices break from each other, but I don't believe we will get that just yet.

I hate to sound like a bear, but I still believe the big money shorts are going to have one final push down so they can cover their shorts, and that will happen in the next couple of months or hopefully sooner. Maybe they will let it go back up to $35 and then smack it down, who knows?

The pundits keep talking about silver shortages but I don't believe that. I want to believe it, but cannot. They have said it before and it was not true, so we will see if there finally is a default somewhere, or that the demand for physical gets so great premiums will shoot through the roof.

The cost to produce silver is still far enough below the current spot that mining activity is going to increase and probably so will output. I do see long term where physical supplies could get tight if investing in silver becomes the big thing again and even a fraction of the money sitting in cash comes into the PM market. I believe that will happen but not until we get another push down.

If there ever is a split of the paper and physical price everyone's silver will go up to levels you cannot imagine right now, but I think they will keep the game going for a while and that is fine with me. I still want to load up some more in the mid 20's. Maybe just my wishful thinking.

The large national bullion dealers still have lots of silver for sale, even though certain specific coins like the ASEs might be tight for a while. But bar bullion and Maples, etc seem to be in large supply. I like to check the Tulving and Apmex sites from time to time to see what they have available and their prices. Kind of a mini barometer of what's out there to buy and demand, etc.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

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[Marchas45]

Short term I don't care Jim, when the Silver goes over the resistance mark of $35.50 then it's going to explode. This is the time to buy and every extra fiat I get goes to silver. I've been buying on forums a little bit at a time and when I see a deal, I jump on it. I just bought (20) 1oz SilverTowne bars just below spot with free shipping, also (5) First Majestic 1/2 oz below spot and free shipping as those have a premium on ebay as they didn't make that many. Also a bunch of 90% at spot with free shipping and still looking for deals.
Working on a bunch of rounds on another forum and hopefully tonight I get those under spot and free shipping. Lol Keep Stacking folks things are getting interesting and yes I believe theirs a shortage coming on, sorry Jim. Lol
Bye the way anybody want to buy 100 V Nickels, sorry but they are only 75% copper and 25% Nickel. Lol

 

[jim4silver]

In a way I hope you are correct Charlie. As much as I would like cheaper silver, it would be a relief to know I am done buying (once silver passes $35) and I can sit back and watch my stash go up in value and not have to think about it each day. I am just kind of burned out reading all the usual bullish articles put out by the usual propaganda folks that have been saying the same stuff for years and years and are almost never proven correct on any of it.

I still believe silver (and other PMs) will be the preferred investments to have in the future, but from here to there could take us down some roads that are unanticipated (PMs taking a sizable dump from here?). Since I don't have unlimited funds to invest I want to get the most bang for my bucks and if I can get in cheaper I will. It sucks if you have to sell some PMs to pay bills that come up, and when you sell you are getting less than you paid for them.

I believe part of the big shorts' goal is psychological in that they want to keep folks from even thinking about PMs, and for those PM bugs who are already in, to cause them to give up or sell their stash. Even if they let it run up a little for here, I can see them smashing it like they seem to do much of the time. It is much easier to weather the emotional roller coaster of PM price gyrations if you are better diversified (among other PM classes) and if you have some extra cash on hand for emergency bills and future PM buys, which is something I learned not too long ago.

There is a good old market saying "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Marchas45]

I'm with you Jim, when it passes $35.50 for me then I'm through buying but in the meantime I'm stacking. I also hate it when I have to sell some but I make sure I get spot for it and when I do I'm still ahead of the game because I bought a lot in the $20's range, so it's just like taking some off my savings but it hurts. Lol
I also don't listen to all that hype now from the big boys, they are more wrong than they are right and mostly wrong. The SLV just got 572 tons of silver in on one day, so something is going on. It's getting interesting.

 

[jim4silver]

I'm with you Jim, when it passes $35.50 for me then I'm through buying but in the meantime I'm stacking. I also hate it when I have to sell some but I make sure I get spot for it and when I do I'm still ahead of the game because I bought a lot in the $20's range, so it's just like taking some off my savings but it hurts. Lol
I also don't listen to all that hype now from the big boys, they are more wrong than they are right and mostly wrong. The SLV just got 572 tons of silver in on one day, so something is going on. It's getting interesting.

Apparently they created more shares of the ETF and had to "back" those new shares I am guessing. I wonder where all that physical could have come from though if things were really tight on supply. Here is a brief article that discusses this.

SLV Adds Record 572 Tons Of Silver In One Day, More Than In All Of 2012 | Zero Hedge

We will see what the next couple of weeks bring. It feels to me like some sizable movement in gold and silver is imminent, which way I couldn't tell you. I've thought about buying some inverse ETF shares to hedge, but would rather put that money into physical.

Jim

 

[lost]

Wish I had something intelligent and accurate about which way the Silver and Gold market is going. But I don't. I'll go along with Charlie opinion about the "experts" being more wrong than even close. So, I got nothing.

With that being on topic, have you and Charlie seen the Silver Bullets up for sale over on Northwest Coins? I think there is a TN rule about posting actual links. Am Sure you can find it. Wow, what an "gotta have some now" those .45's are. Around $37 bucks a oz, I forget, plus shipping. Who cares, I want at least six to display. Haven't ordered as several of the other coin forms say Northwest takes months to ship. Plan to wait a few months from them to get into actual production and maybe for silver to drop a little.

One more item. Sometime in the past few weeks, I read in the business section of a major newspapers web site, the US Mint ran out of silver for it's production 6 times during 2012. It just re-ordered. Nothing to read into the mints latest shortage.

 

[0121stockpicker]

If you silver bulls are not going to be buying anymore once silver hits $35.50 then what makes you think it will go any higher?? All the unwashed masses who have never heard of silver will suddenly start buying with both hands??

Higher interest rates, stronger dollar and improving global economy will cap gold and silver near term. Hedge fund liquidations followed by retail selling will hit it longer term. Just my opinion.

I'd buy plat/pall over silver/gold. PGMs should outperform with an improving economy. I also like timber assets given we are likely to start seeing a bit of a housing turn. And it's going to be a lot lot cheaper to buy an etf as opposed to physical metals. Transaction costs will really eat in to your physical metal returns.

All just my opinion. Best to all.

 

[jim4silver]

If you silver bulls are not going to be buying anymore once silver hits $35.50 then what makes you think it will go any higher?? All the unwashed masses who have never heard of silver will suddenly start buying with both hands??

I picked that figure because at some point I will start putting money into something other than silver. Anyone who has been "stacking" for too long or too much relative to their gross income probably has too much allocated to silver percentage wise (like I did). If they are in that position, it is smart to either diversify and/or at some point stop accumulating (stopping purchases now or at a certain level).

My view is that by the time the average person on the street (sheople) catches wind of how great gold and silver are, they will not be able to afford either in large enough amounts to have any impact on the silver market (there are some folks out there who cannot even name the vice president, let alone know the history of PMs and their relationship to debt, etc).

The big money folks like hedge funds, mutual funds, millionaires and billionaires, etc, can though have a direct impact if they decide to buy enough physical. Generally, these wealthy folks are a few steps ahead of the sheople regarding investments due to their connections and such, and they will generally get into a market early compared to regular folks. I hope to be in the PMs even before the big money folks. However to do this puts one in the position of buying before confirmation of any potential big moves that are caused by the big money folks jumping in at once, kind of like the big move up in silver in 2010 to 2011, right before the big dump that same year.

I believe we are at another important stage where the powers that be (big shorts) will either push silver down further along with gold so as to exit their shorts and keep the appearance that all is well with the dollar and our debt, or the big money folks (hedge funds, etc) are about to cause silver to push up to test $50 again by jumping in both physical and paper plays going long. Impossible to know which it will be with certainty. If we see any big stock market correction then you can bet it will be the former, at least temporarily.

I believe though at some point after a further correction, the big shorts will become big longs and take PMs up to the moon. When that happens is anyone's guess, but said correction is going to be the incident that will precipitate a break from the paper and physical markets as the cheaper PM prices brings in lots of new $$$$ and for the most part said buyers will insist on physical rather than paper products. I thought it would have happened by now. I guess they are not finished crushing the hopes of the weak handed PM owners and getting them to sell out in fear of a crash to zero that will never happen.

The big shorts are smart and if there is going to be a big crash with derivatives, stocks and/or fiat currency, you can bet said big shorts will become big longs in gold and silver if it means making big $$$$. But by that time many small PM bugs may have already sold out thinking the PM bull market has ended. Remember, in the past almost all bull markets end in a fast and large run up that dwarfs the gains already made up to that point (mania phase). Once we get to that I will be convinced gold and silver have had their day in the sun. So far, silver has not even broken the old nominal high of 50 from the early '80s.

I agree with your PGM view, and personally I have some platinum, palladium and recently rhodium (Baird bars, none of the powder in the sponge for me). Part of my diversification plans. In any event, we will still witness a huge blowout in fiat currencies and the debt situation, etc, at some point in the next 5 years or so.

What is going on in the world today with debt and printing, etc, has happened numerous times in past civilization and the results are always the same. I don't know why some folks today believe things will end differently. As our debt limit is raised or even completely eliminated, we will pass the $17 Trillion debt mark in the not so distant future and probably the sheople will not even notice.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Marchas45]

Well said Jim, as for our economy improving and the real estate market improving and the dollar getting stronger I really don't see it happening anytime soon. As for not buying anymore Silver after $35.00: The resistance spot price is $35.25 and when it goes over that then watch out. I will stop, sit back and watch my stack of over 3 years in the making rise substantially, then I'll take those profits and invest in something else that I will not discuss right now. Lol All my opinion of course.

 

[0121stockpicker]

I picked that figure because at some point I will start putting money into something other than silver. Anyone who has been "stacking" for too long or too much relative to their gross income probably has too much allocated to silver percentage wise (like I did). If they are in that position, it is smart to either diversify and/or at some point stop accumulating (stopping purchases now or at a certain level).

My view is that by the time the average person on the street (sheople) catches wind of how great gold and silver are, they will not be able to afford either in large enough amounts to have any impact on the silver market (there are some folks out there who cannot even name the vice president, let alone know the history of PMs and their relationship to debt, etc).

The big money folks like hedge funds, mutual funds, millionaires and billionaires, etc, can though have a direct impact if they decide to buy enough physical. Generally, these wealthy folks are a few steps ahead of the sheople regarding investments due to their connections and such, and they will generally get into a market early compared to regular folks. I hope to be in the PMs even before the big money folks. However to do this puts one in the position of buying before confirmation of any potential big moves that are caused by the big money folks jumping in at once, kind of like the big move up in silver in 2010 to 2011, right before the big dump that same year.

I believe we are at another important stage where the powers that be (big shorts) will either push silver down further along with gold so as to exit their shorts and keep the appearance that all is well with the dollar and our debt, or the big money folks (hedge funds, etc) are about to cause silver to push up to test $50 again by jumping in both physical and paper plays going long. Impossible to know which it will be with certainty. If we see any big stock market correction then you can bet it will be the former, at least temporarily.

I believe though at some point after a further correction, the big shorts will become big longs and take PMs up to the moon. When that happens is anyone's guess, but said correction is going to be the incident that will precipitate a break from the paper and physical markets as the cheaper PM prices brings in lots of new $$$$ and for the most part said buyers will insist on physical rather than paper products. I thought it would have happened by now. I guess they are not finished crushing the hopes of the weak handed PM owners and getting them to sell out in fear of a crash to zero that will never happen.

The big shorts are smart and if there is going to be a big crash with derivatives, stocks and/or fiat currency, you can bet said big shorts will become big longs in gold and silver if it means making big $$$$. But by that time many small PM bugs may have already sold out thinking the PM bull market has ended. Remember, in the past almost all bull markets end in a fast and large run up that dwarfs the gains already made up to that point (mania phase). Once we get to that I will be convinced gold and silver have had their day in the sun. So far, silver has not even broken the old nominal high of 50 from the early '80s.

I agree with your PGM view, and personally I have some platinum, palladium and recently rhodium (Baird bars, none of the powder in the sponge for me). Part of my diversification plans. In any event, we will still witness a huge blowout in fiat currencies and the debt situation, etc, at some point in the next 5 years or so.

What is going on in the world today with debt and printing, etc, has happened numerous times in past civilization and the results are always the same. I don't know why some folks today believe things will end differently. As our debt limit is raised or even completely eliminated, we will pass the $17 Trillion debt mark in the not so distant future and probably the sheople will not even notice.

Just my opinion.

Jim

I used to deal with "smart money" everyday when I was an equity analyst on Wall Street (though I was in Boston). Believe me they make as many investing mistakes as anyone else. But they definitely do throw around enough money to impact the price of the commodity. A lot of people are very bullish on precious metals and it is always risky when too many people are chasing the same investment - real estate, tech stocks, tulips and Bennie babies.

I do like hard assets though. You can buy just about any commodity through an etf - metals, ag, energy etc. I just picked up some natural gas a few weeks ago. Everyone hates gas right now - I think it's a no brainer.

Best