When will it be time to buy?

[bradley1719]

The price is going down and it may continue down for quite a while. So where will the bottom be? I don't know. But you'll know it when it happens because the following will be true.

1. The APMEX buy price will be significantly below spot.

2. The APMEX sell price will return to levels we saw pre-2008. That means junk silver will be a few percentage points below spot and silver eagles will be just a few percentage points above. There will basically be no additional premiums like we have now.

3. When the price fluctuates up by a percent or two, no one will care. The coin shops will still be empty. Everyone who is running out trying to catch the falling knife right now will have given up by then.

When this happens you'll have a couple of years to buy at that price before it starts to slowly head back up again. So running out and buying a bunch of silver thinking "this might be the last time" is really just futile. There is nothing wrong with dollar cost averaging and buying a little bit now and then. Just understand that the price will be down for a good two years so there really is no hurry.

I don't know where the bottom will be, but this is not it. It could be $15, $14, or even below $10. But we haven't hit it yet. When you see the three things above happen then it will be time to start buying significant amounts again.

We've seen this all before.

 

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[bradley1719]

I'll bet at some point depending on the election that it will drop below $10. I'm just taking a guess. I saw it shoot over night and it can drop just the same.

It could go below $10. But I think that is a bit of a stretch. I'm thinking more around $12 - $14. But really, I don't think it matters too much because I don't think the bottom will be short lived. I think the price will stagnate for a good two years or so. And when that happens you'll be able to easily see that the bottom has hit. So whether it is $10 or $15 the bottom will be what it will be.

We don't have to call the bottom. We just need to wait for it to happen. And it will be obvious when it happens regardless of what the price ends up being. I think that's the most important point. We don't need to be constantly running around trying to calculate or guess if this is the last drop in price. We can relax and just wait. There is no hurry.

This is all just my opinion of course.

 

[Marchas45]

NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY don't get caught waiting for it to go lower, I don't seeing it going that way but then again, I'm a Stacker.. Keep Stacking

 

[jim4silver]

To answer the thread title- back when silver was in the $14 to $15 range it seems. Now approaching $18 but I know the powers could smash it if they want. I think this Swiss decision has at least for now re-lit the fire under PM's. But I am no longer a pollyanna on the metals short term (but I still am long and perhaps mid term) and understand this might only be a temporary bump up.

From what I am reading on the "mainstream" financial channels hedge funds in general did not do well last year (compared to the market indexes, etc). Perhaps they see a chance to run the PM's up a bit?

Hoping for $20 soon so I will have no more desire to buy more and can focus on other "investments".

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Seabees]

@bradley1719

What is your goal? Are you stacking as a collector/hobby? investment short term/long term? economical collapses/end of world type of scenario, only precious metals will be excepted as currency?

 

[bradley1719]

Don't let this short term run up fool you. If you look at the chart from the past two years this exact same thing happened all the time right before a big smack down. It's about a three month cycle. Again, the long term trend is down. These little ups and downs don't mean anything.

 

[Peyton Manning]

back when gold was 30 and silver 6
Wish I had known..

 

[jim4silver]

Don't let this short term run up fool you. If you look at the chart from the past two years this exact same thing happened all the time right before a big smack down. It's about a three month cycle. Again, the long term trend is down. These little ups and downs don't mean anything.

I wish I believed/knew that to be true. I would sell some of my generic silver today and put that $$$$ into paper trades I have been making. I am doing well in those now and would like to be playing them with more $$$$ but don't have any to add. But if I did sell some silver today you know what would happen Monday? $20 silver!

Jim

 

[jim4silver]

I made the mistake of stopping by one of my local coin stores today. I bought 2 - 5 oz silver coins that are 1986 Liechtenstein 10 Taler .999 silver coins. They are proof strikes and only 2500 minted. I got them for 1 dollar over spot per ounce. I like this kind of foreign low mintage stuff when I can get it cheap, especially being .999 in that a lot of the foreign coins are sterling .925.

When I got home I was googling to find out more about them and found a nice set of photos and some info on them on a PM blog site.

1986 Liechtenstein 10 Taler 5oz Silver


Jim