Today I ended a 7 half box skunk streak. I do about 2 boxes a month, but with the streak I have been on I have been doing more dime boxes and customer wrapped half rolls.
Today I got my first box from this chain of banks. The box looked exactly like the boxes I have been getting from other banks which have been quite skunky. But in the 2nd roll I got a '68. Then about 10 rolls later a '64.....then another '64....then with like 12 rolls to go I thought "probability says there is one more in there...." And with 3 rolls to go I got a '66.
2 90%ers and 2 40%ers. Back in January this would not have been a box worth posting about, but now?? I love it!!
So as I considered probabilities, here is what I think I know about statistics:
1) If the coins are truly randomized, it is likely they are evenly distributed throughout the box.
Of course we could easily imagine a situation where granny dumps a jar of silver and they all hit the rolling machine together. But assuming they don't, the should be evenly distributed. My box today was very evenly distributed. In boxes, all my silver has been pretty evenly distributed, I have only ever had 1 roll with 2 silvers in it.
2) Then I tried to reason out "what is the "natural abundance" of silver'? What I mean is, what does the average half box look like assuming no crh and no dumps, from now on. Of course I realize if I was the only one who had ever looked for silver there would be more there, but I am more trying to understand the rate that it replenishes in the boxes.
Assuming I don't get someone's dumps (which I think I did quite a bit during the 7 box skunk streak) and assuming that I don't run across a box full of silver where someone dumped their silver all at once, what does the average box look like? How often does someone cash in a roll of halves with just one silver in there?
My boxes have virtually never had just 1 silver. 1 box out of 20. I am about equally likely to get a skunk as not, but when it is not a skunk it is overwhelmingly likely to be more than 1 silver.
This led me to a happy conclusion, which is, the rate of silver coming into the banks is sort of constant. It's not just 1 silver here or there, it's silver that is getting dumped from a lot of people quite often. All I need to do is find boxes that haven't already been checked and if they come in naturally from people cashing in coins, there will be something like 4 in 1000 of them that are silver.
If I am lucky I get someone's big silver cash out, if I am unlucky, I get someone's dumps, but on average if I can just get the coins as they naturally come into the bank, there's silver there. I guess this premise says "get the cw rolls or loose halves" because they are likely to not have already been checked. But it also says the boxes will give it up too. Which I proved today.
Today I got my first box from this chain of banks. The box looked exactly like the boxes I have been getting from other banks which have been quite skunky. But in the 2nd roll I got a '68. Then about 10 rolls later a '64.....then another '64....then with like 12 rolls to go I thought "probability says there is one more in there...." And with 3 rolls to go I got a '66.
2 90%ers and 2 40%ers. Back in January this would not have been a box worth posting about, but now?? I love it!!
So as I considered probabilities, here is what I think I know about statistics:
1) If the coins are truly randomized, it is likely they are evenly distributed throughout the box.
Of course we could easily imagine a situation where granny dumps a jar of silver and they all hit the rolling machine together. But assuming they don't, the should be evenly distributed. My box today was very evenly distributed. In boxes, all my silver has been pretty evenly distributed, I have only ever had 1 roll with 2 silvers in it.
2) Then I tried to reason out "what is the "natural abundance" of silver'? What I mean is, what does the average half box look like assuming no crh and no dumps, from now on. Of course I realize if I was the only one who had ever looked for silver there would be more there, but I am more trying to understand the rate that it replenishes in the boxes.
Assuming I don't get someone's dumps (which I think I did quite a bit during the 7 box skunk streak) and assuming that I don't run across a box full of silver where someone dumped their silver all at once, what does the average box look like? How often does someone cash in a roll of halves with just one silver in there?
My boxes have virtually never had just 1 silver. 1 box out of 20. I am about equally likely to get a skunk as not, but when it is not a skunk it is overwhelmingly likely to be more than 1 silver.
This led me to a happy conclusion, which is, the rate of silver coming into the banks is sort of constant. It's not just 1 silver here or there, it's silver that is getting dumped from a lot of people quite often. All I need to do is find boxes that haven't already been checked and if they come in naturally from people cashing in coins, there will be something like 4 in 1000 of them that are silver.
If I am lucky I get someone's big silver cash out, if I am unlucky, I get someone's dumps, but on average if I can just get the coins as they naturally come into the bank, there's silver there. I guess this premise says "get the cw rolls or loose halves" because they are likely to not have already been checked. But it also says the boxes will give it up too. Which I proved today.
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