Predictions for price of silver in next 12 months?

[jim4silver]

Since many here are interested in silver coins, I want to see what people think the price will one year from now. I know that the price of silver is very dependent on many things, such as the economy, strength of the dollar, what gold is doing, world tensions-wars, etc. and industrial demand, thus there is no possible way to really know what the future holds. In any event, my opinion is that long term the price is going up, how high I do not know.

My prediction is that we could see a high price happening sometime between now and next year of $35 to $40 per ounce, if the dollar keeps heading in the same direction it is now. Some experts say that if we have a bad enough recession/depression that the price of gold and silver will fall because people will be buying less of everything. I think that the fed reserve will keep lowering rates or doing whatever they do to keep the money supply liquid for as long as they can, so for at least a while we are more likely to see inflation/hyperinflation which should keep the prices of precious metals and commodities in general going up.


Jim

 

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[jeff of pa]

I was convinced Silver would be pushing $30 by now
but something strange is happening that makes no sense to me.

it keeps Bouncing back & Forth Between
$17.50 & $18.50 pretty much
on a daily basis. almost like it's stabalized.

not sure if it has
or if somone is artificially causing this
to buy before letting it rise to unknown hights.

 

[Scalper]

Well this is my take for the price of precious metals ... I include gold also for the fact that is best of breed in the metals market and silver moves in tandem with it ... that being said I see a pull back towards May and a continuing downtick throughout the summer then around Sept towards Oct. the price of metals to climb towards new highs ....


As a options trader ( I am not claiming to be a expert or a soothsayer) but there are huge amounts of contracts and approved sales , the big MMs ( market makers like JP Morgan which took delivery of 1.16mil ounces of gold equal to $768milUSD, average buy price $662USD., HSBC has a boatload of gold as well among many others ... The IMF is supposed to unload 500 tons of gold here sometime between now and the end of May. The G7 already approved the sale. Goldman Sachs is stating internally that gold will stay where it is for the next 90 days, then fall dramatically in price, an analysis which support's Bolser’s analysis of the IMF announcement to sell gold.



Anyways I have posted enough and this is just my opinion fwiw

 

[jim4silver]

Scalper,

Logically your position is sound. But I have learned that in precious metals, at least in the current bull market, you should expect the unexpected. I think that governments other than ours, like Russia, China, etc., are buying physical and will continue.

I prefer gold to silver as well. But with the high prices, I am not buying any right now.

I know that futures markets influence the prices, but they are just paper contracts as most do not demand delivery. At some point in the future I believe that physical possession will prevail over paper contracts and the prices will go up far more than they have.

I believe that we have several more years to go in this bull market. I hope there is a correction this spring and summer so I can buy at a cheaper price.

I don't put any trust or faith in investment reports put out by the big named companies. As far as IMF sales go, someone is buying that gold. I think the markets expect those sales and they bounce back a week or so after each sale.

The M3 supply is growing at an exponential rate it seems, and I cannot imagine how all those dollars created cannot result in anything but inflation big time. Remember, all fiat currencies since the dawn of time have failed eventually. Gold has been money for thousands of years.


Jim

 

[bradyboy]

The current activity on silver certainly has taken the wind out of my sails.
What do ya think?
Good time to buy?

 

[jim4silver]

Bradyboy,

In the couple of years I have been following gold and silver it seems that great gains happen, then it corrects a bit and everyone says the bull market is over. I have to admit that when I see the charts for gold and silver lately and read the reports from the "experts", I start to wonder if I should sell my holdings. But in the past so far, the market continues to move up after each correction. I am sensing that there will be a correction period from now until the summer or so. But if anything unexpected should happen in the mid east, as far as new conflicts,etc., then I would expect gold and silver to go up big time. In addition, the continuation of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar should be positive for gold and silver. I personally feel that commodities in general will be bullish for the next few years over all.

There are many that believe that the silver market is being manipulated by large short sellers, so if this is true, who knows what could happen to silver, even with the presence of such seemingly bullish conditions. No way to know for sure. I hope to buy more silver and gold if prices dip this summer.

Jim

 

[greydigger]

Jim4silver, do you think the BRIC countries buying physical fortell their thinking that their monetary units will decrease in value?
Or are they just using the influx of world cash to backbone their countries a bit.
The increase of world wide information, it seems to me, does generate motivation in many countries. " I want what they have ". Perhaps I am wrong.

 

[jim4silver]

greydigger,

My personal view is that these countries are using their excess dollars (US and from wherever) to buy physical metals, which have stood the test of time as far as keeping value. Its been said that every fiat currency ever made has failed, but gold and silver have been around for thousands of years and they still are valuable.

The key for me is whether silver and gold will go up or down in my lifetime, since I am not too concerned about 100 years from now for obvious reasons. I guess all countries now pretty much have fiat, so if ours is going down, other countries may have similar problems with their currency in the future. From what I have seen, many countries' M3 numbers are going up like ours, some much worse (like Russia). So perhaps these countries are wanting to get metals while they are relatively cheap I see inflation more than deflation in the next 5 years.

Its all just a guess though.

Jim

 

[taino2007]

$49.00

 

[jim4silver]

$49.00

I could live with that!

Jim

 

[jewelerdave]

Seems more that golds price runs on emotion. And right now its acting like the emotions of a teen age girl. Confused and not knowing what to do!

Silver is acting more on the supply and demand side, and less on emotion. There is a lot of gold and silver out there. Each time the price goes up more is bought and sold.

Either way metals value in relation to the currently accepted faith based paper money does not matter.
Its a fact however that its taking more and more faith based dollars to buy these little bits of metal.
It will continue to do so until the dollar, like the Mexican peso in the early 90s, Is revalued.

A healthy way of looking at it would be more as. Will this store of wealth be able to be converted into something that will put food in my stomach or clothes on my back if the need arises. And that answer anywhere in the world no mater who you are or how much or little you have and no matter what currency that society is useing is YES.

I dont think we will be seeing a collapse of the American money system soon, nor will it be fast. But I do see a disturbing trend of our wealth flowing into other societies and a slow gradual decline.
will we see a mad max style world, probably not.
But will those who have PMs be able to ride though a hard time better than others...well yeah.

 

[Rifleman]

The Gold and Silver market sure are not what they used to be. In years gone by, when the stock market went down and a recession, higher gas prices etc happened, you could count on metals taking a big jump. The metals prices seem to be controlled like everything else these days. I'm just going to hold onto mine and see what happens. I'm not in a big hurry to unload what I have. It just makes me wish for the old days when you really could make some money on metals with some predictability.

John K

 

[jeff of pa]

a good read on the 80's & the hunt Brothers attempt to buy all the silver


By the late 1970's the Hunt first family's fortune was estimated to be in the range of 6 to 8 billion dollars. In 1978 John Connally introduced Bunker to a Saudi sheik at the Mayflower hotel in Washington. A year later International Metal Investment was incorporated in Bermuda between Bunker, Herbert and two Saudi sheiks. It was speculated that the two sheiks were fronting for members of the Saudi royal family.

In early 1979 the price of silver steadily rose to $8/oz and the Sunshine Mine deal fell apart. The stockholders demanded more money for the balance of the purchase since the mine was now worth more due to the increase in silver. The Hunt's tender offer failed and they sold their interest back to the management trust.

In the summer of 1979 the Hunt brothers started buying silver through the International Metal Investment group along with their Saudi partners. Over 43 million oz of silver contracts were purchased through the COMEX and the CBOT with delivery to be taken that fall. In the fall of 1979 the silver price doubled from $8 to $16/oz in only two months. Other syndicates with big money behind them started buying silver. The COMEX and the CBOT started to panic. In late 1979 the warehouses of the two exchanges only held 120 million oz of silver and that amount was traded in October alone. Many people, including the Hunts through their International Metal Investment group were taking delivery on all their contracts! The Hunts moved another 9 million oz of silver to Europe through a silver swap (no cowboys riding shotgun this time). The brothers were starting to fear another confiscation by the US government (FDR style) since things were coming to a head. Late in 1979 the CBOT changed the rules and stated that no investor could hold over 3 million oz of silver contracts and the margin requirement were raised. All contracts over 3 million oz per trader must be liquidated by February of 1980. Bunker accused the COMEX and CBOT board members of having a financial interest in the silver market themselves. Investigations later found that many had substantial silver short positions. Bunker knew that a shortage now existed or they would not be screaming so loudly. He bought even more. The price on the last day of 1979 was $34.45/oz. At this point Bunker and Herbert held 40 million oz in Switzerland and 90 million oz of bullion they jointly owned through International Metals. In addition to all that, International Metals had contracts on another 90 million oz due for delivery that March from the COMEX. The younger brother, Lamar had even entered the arena and had taken a $300 million dollar silver position by the end of 1979.

Finally on January 7th of 1980 the COMEX changed their rules to only allow 10 million/oz of contracts per trader and that all contracts over that amount must be liquidated before February 18th. . The CFTC promptly backed up the ruling. On January 17th silver hit $50/oz, Bunker had continued to buy. At that point in time the Hunt's silver position was worth $4.5 billion dollars bringing their profits in silver to $3.5 billion dollars. On January 21st the COMEX announced that it was suspending trading in silver. They would only accept liquidation orders. Silver dropped $10/oz and stayed around $39/oz until the end of January. Scrap silver, old silver coin collections and silverware came into the market - about 22 million oz in all. In early February the Hunt group took delivery of another 26 million oz from Chicago. The Hunt's North Sea oil through Placid Oil was coming on line and generating $200 million /year from that venture alone. There was talk of a takeover of Texaco Oil. Bunker was also talking to other Middle Eastern rulers about putting together another silver buying group.

By March 14th silver was down to $21/oz. Volker had raised interest rates and the dollar had firmed up (this also made borrowing to speculate on silver more expensive). International Metals still held 60 million oz of futures contracts. Their margin calls on those contracts amounted to $10 million dollars a day! Bunker still believed the price would go back up if only he could promote more buying. He scrambled around Europe looking for a buying partner but the more the price dropped the harder it was to borrow more money against his silver holdings to buy even more silver to hold up the price. Finally on March 25th of 1980 the Hunt brothers ran out of cash. Bunker called Herbert and simply said, "Shut it down". Herbert promptly told his broker the following morning that they could not meet their $135 million dollar margin call that day.

The Hunt's brokers promptly sold $100 million dollars worth of silver that day. Their account only had $90 million dollars worth of equity and they were expected to loose all that the next day. The CFTC chairman, Chairman of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Secretary began an around the clock silver monitoring session.

On March 27th (silver Thursday) silver opened at $15.80 and closed at $10.80. The stock market crashed on rumors of Hunt liquidations of stocks to cover his silver losses and then rallied to close at about the same level. The next day silver rallied back up to $12/oz. The Hunt's bullion purchases were all averaged around $10/oz but their futures contracts were purchased at or about $35/oz. When it was all over they owed $1.5 billion dollars.

Fed Chairman Volker gave approval for a bailout plan for the brothers fearing a financial disaster. A group of banks agreed to loan the brothers 1.1 billion dollars. The family had to put up 8 billion in collateral with the banks. The brother's older sister, Margaret finally put her foot down after the silver collapse and demanded to know just what Bunker had intended to accomplish? Bunker sheepishly replied, "I was just trying to make some money".

After the smoke cleared it appeared that the drama was not just a one sided manipulation by the Hunts. The shorts and the Eastern establishment had just as much at stake as the Hunts. By the mid 1980's silver was bumping $17/oz again. Shortly thereafter, Reagan came into the presidency and a new optimism gripped the country.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/laborde012704.html

 

[jeff of pa]

I say Despite how Crowded it will get
Most people will be Moving to the Cities
(Flatlands) Think about the Gas Prices & the Mountains.
We Can't survive with Electric cars, Bikes in the winter ?
Some of us need to drive 20 Mile to a Grocery Store.
There are some areas where we have to drive 20 Mile
one way to a gas station. at todays gas prices
in a vehicle that gets 13 mile to the gallon like mine.

once gas tripples, & it will, We'll be in trouble.
No bus Service, No public transport at all in the Boonies or Mountains.
not even Car pooling in most cases

How do you pay, to travel to work & Food & Mortgage
& Utilities ?

 

[Michigan Badger]

I say Despite how Crowded it will get
Most people will be Moving to the Cities

You could be right but I tend to think the future jobs that pay anything with be done via computer.

 

[jeff of pa]

Yes I have 2 nephewes in the Computer field.

One in a School keeping the computers up & running
& the other Gets to travel the world at times

neither over 30

would be nice If we had that way back when.

 

[jim4silver]

It seems that we often like to look at history to try and figure out what will happen in the future. It seems that the big run up in silver in the 80's had to do with the Hunt brothers' attempts to corner the market. But if we fast-forward to today, the economy is much different than in the 80's. There are trillions more dollars floating around and our house of cards economy is much worse off.

We have a fed that has said it will go out of its way to prevent deflation and/or recession/depression. In the 80's the fed leader had the cojones to jack up the interest rates to the necessary levels to kill inflation and help the dollar. We will not see that this time.

It seems that weekly we are seeing the fed loaning billions and billions to banks to keep liquidity flowing. All of those created dollars (really digits on a computer) just don't go away and will eventually lead to inflation levels that dwarf what we are seeing now in my opinion.

Gold and silver may be manipulated now, but remember that only a small percentage of Americans own gold and silver bullion. How many people (friends/family) have you told about buying gold and silver and they look at you like you are nuts? At some point Joe Six Pack is going to get in on silver and maybe gold, as will institutional investors, etc. At that point, I don't think any power in the world will be able to hold back the price of silver and gold.

We may see some strong corrections this summer as it seems some big money players want to see precious metals lower for some reason. But in 2-5 years I believe those hold physical gold and silver will be rewarded.

Jim

 

[MD Dog]

I'm sure you guys will disagree with me, and some of you will prolly wanna attack me. But here goes. I have been investing for years and years and have made a good living and will continue to do so no matter what hits the fan. This is because I saw a long time ago the folly of investing in money markets, bonds, precious metals etc.... One day the chit will hit the fan, just as it did during the depression of the 30s, except worse, much, much worse. When that time comes the only investment of real value will be land and seed and livestock. You can't eat gold !

 

[jim4silver]

I'm sure you guys will disagree with me, and some of you will prolly wanna attack me. But here goes. I have been investing for years and years and have made a good living and will continue to do so no matter what hits the fan. This is because I saw a long time ago the folly of investing in money markets, bonds, precious metals etc.... One day the chit will hit the fan, just as it did during the depression of the 30s, except worse, much, much worse. When that time comes the only investment of real value will be land and seed and livestock. You can't eat gold !

MD Dog,

In a way I have to agree with you that land, livestock and crops will be a great commodity to own if TSHTF.

But, unless we are totally living Mad Max style, there will always be a need for some type of "currency" so that individuals can exchange goods and services efficiently. Do you think you will be able to bring some chickens into a store and exchange them for medical supplies, etc? Maybe initially that would happen, but if things improved a bit there would be a need for a "currency" that is compact and easy to carry.

Gold and silver have been valued and accepted as money for thousands of years (here too until about 40 years ago). Not that gold or silver in and of itself is much use (not counting the many industrial uses for silver that emerge daily). But I would rather have gold and silver than pieces of paper with numbers. History has shown that every society with fiat currency (like we are today) eventually collapes and the fiat becomes worthless. This has never failed in history up till now. Maybe we will be the first to break this trend, but I think a person needs to hedge their bets and own some gold and silver.

In your scenario, if things do get Mad Max style (I doubt they will and hope they don't), then it seems that urban people with weapons may come and pay a visit to those rural folks with the land, chickens and crops and try to "borrow" them.


Jim

 

[Roadquest]

Silver prices should have gone up, it should be up a bit now say 23=24 dollars oz.
People are buying, and have been buying, because it is "affordable" where gold is out of reach
to most people. Silver is holding at the 16=18+ per oz. price.
If you think about it, this can't be right. I'm not a conspiracy nut.
But, it's clear something is going on somewhere.

Roadquest..Clayton Ramey