Goldmans Predictions 4/1013

[lost]

Goldman's Predictions 4/1013

Today, Goldman stuck a knife in the backs of all us PM holders. Goldman said gold would drop to $1450 by the end of the year. Judging by today's drop in gold, it may happen much sooner. Like, maybe end of May.

And you know what else? Silver is going to follow. Manufacturing is not going to keep the price up. The stock market doesn't even come close to the reality of what's happening in the real US economy. Around my little corner of my state I still see hundreds of foreclosed homes monthly. If you read the real estate sales carefully, I see many, if not most sales being brought by investors. Even I went to look at a house close to me for investment purpose. Too much work to get it into a shape for profit. Friends and neighbors being laid off. Contractor buddies unable to collect money owned them. Seriously ill folks losing Health Care. I could go on, but since I've failed to see a dumb poster in this PM Thread, well, you know what I mean. We all are coming into in a world of hurt and it's happening faster than I suspected.

Anyway, on topic, I expect silver to drop below 20 and hang there for years. Just a guess from a southern redneck that's walked the PM market road for many years.

 

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[jim4silver]

Today, Goldman stuck a knife in the backs of all us PM holders. Goldman said gold would drop to $1450 by the end of the year. Judging by today's drop in gold, it may happen much sooner. Like, maybe end of May.

And you know what else? Silver is going to follow. Manufacturing is not going to keep the price up. The stock market doesn't even come close to the reality of what's happening in the real US economy. Around my little corner of my state I still see hundreds of foreclosed homes monthly. If you read the real estate sales carefully, I see many, if not most sales being brought by investors. Even I went to look at a house close to me for investment purpose. Too much work to get it into a shape for profit. Friends and neighbors being laid off. Contractor buddies unable to collect money owned them. Seriously ill folks losing Health Care. I could go on, but since I've failed to see a dumb poster in this PM Thread, well, you know what I mean. We all are coming into in a world of hurt and it's happening faster than I suspected.

Anyway, on topic, I expect silver to drop below 20 and hang there for years. Just a guess from a southern redneck that's walked the PM market road for many years.

Lost,

If you have been into PMs for years then you know the value of owning physical assets. It is frustrating that the paper price of silver drops while stores are selling out of certain kinds of silver products. One of my larger local coin stores has been out of silver eagles twice in less than a week. They normally have very large inventories at all times of many types of bullion and coins. I know they are not holding stock back because they were selling them at the recent low of 26 and change. I bought some the other day and went back today and buyers cleaned them out before I could get there.

Instead of listening to any of the various pundits' opinions on future prices of PMs, why not look for yourself at what is going on all over the world with respect to governments, debt, banks, QE's etc. The only reason the stock market is going up is because there is really no where else to park money and get a return in the paper markets since the fed has kept interest rates so low (along with other QE tools). They are really herding investors into the stock market by keeping rates so low even if that is not their goal. While some businesses are showing decent profits, the fundamentals do not support such high levels in the S & P and Dow. Even the stock cheerleaders you see on the cable financial shows talk constantly about "what if the fed stops the QE?" and if that were to happen the music would stop instantly. I don't think QE will be stopped for a long time, but everyone seems to know if it did, both stocks and even PMs could suffer because many invest in them due to inflation fears. So maybe the stock market can keep going up indefinitely. Even something like bitcoins is doing well, if that tells you anything about the current state of investing. Gold and silver will have their mania days too in the future. No asset is good all the time, not even PMs (although at least 10% of assets should always be in PMs, even according to PM hating financial advisers).

But here is another reason for holding PMs. That is knowing at least of portion of your wealth will not evaporate for some crazy reason like a "bail in" or devaluation by the gov, etc.

I got very disillusioned with PMs a short while back but I had too much of my $$$ in them with no real diversification. I fixed that situation and sleep better at night and have cash ready to buy if prices drop, etc. But I will never go "all in" or even close because you never really know what is coming.

PS The PGMs are correcting a bit. I have been expecting that for a while and plan to buy some more if it comes down a bit from this point more. Not a bad way to diversify, like maybe 50% silver and 25% gold and 25% PGMs. That is what I am shooting for.

Jim

 

[TreasurePirate69]

Well, as the resident "dumb poster" I'm happy to put in my two cents worth.

First of all, I think the state of the economy can appear very differently depending on your region, profession, and many other factors. My experience is that the economy truly is improving. The anecdotal evidence that I have of this is based on a number of personally observed factors. Your mileage may vary:

1. Our customers are now spending money like there is no tomorrow. I just went to a trade show and the turnout was the best we've seen in 10 years. We have known for several years that many of our customers had plenty of cash on hold but were not willing to spend it. The flood gates are open and this is the first year in quite a while that we have seen companies looking to invest in technology again. Even our own company had been holding onto cash reserves to ride out the storm.

2. Housing has really picked up in our area. We have a neighbor who sold their house in one day. Other neighbors have been able to sell in one month. Granted, this is the busy time of year for housing sales. But two years ago some of these same neighbors had their houses on the market and eventually just decided to stay because they wouldn't sell (at lower prices). I also have a friend who is a realtor who is doing very well for himself. Lots of activity out there right now compared to the past couple of years.

3. All of my personal acquaintances have jobs now. The last unemployed friend just got a job two weeks ago. We are all white collar professionals so maybe things are different with the manufacturing and blue collar crowds. But the reality is that five years ago, roughly 10% of my neighbors had lost their jobs. Now they are all gainfully employed.

Is this conclusive evidence that the economy is on the rise? Hardly. But the bottom line is that the "fear" out there is waning. I have to believe that a small part of it is that many people and businesses are simply sick and tired of being afraid. I often wonder how in the heck the people living out on the African plains can manage to get through their day? What would it be like to live in a place where the next trip to the watering hole could result in you being killed by a lion or crocodile? How do these people live in constant fear like that? Well, the reality must be that eventually they get tired of being afraid and just move on with their lives. We have been dealing with this mess for going on five years now. The pundits have been continuously calling for the end of the world to happen and for the whole system to finally go boom. And many people (including myself) were very afraid. But it is awfully hard to keep being afraid of something that doesn't seem to be coming. Could it still come? Sure. And that guy walking to the watering hole in Africa could be killed today by a lion. But you can't keep living in fear forever. Eventually you have to get back to living a normal life.

My two cents which is always worth exactly what you paid for it... nothing.

 

[lost]

I really don't know why I'm replying as I've been unable to find the info I'm about to post other than what another poster posted on a coin form late last night. I do have enough sense to double and triple check these type things But...I'm back on my Pain Med's and my normally fuzzy mind is operating just a little better than mush. I woke up this morning thinking I was in a Motel in Alabama wondering why no one was coming to get me. Really. Took a while to realize I must still be asleep. Old piece of Shrapnel moved into a nest of nerves. BP to high for a removal. It's done this dozens of times over the years.

But to the point, I read where Goldman and Citi has both revised their gold predictions down to $1300 from yesterdays price of $1450. Only that one source from a poster who I've noticed in the past, seems to have his PM act pretty well together. I couldn't find it on Kitco today.

Yes, I understand what the Worlds conditions have to do with the movement of PM's. It doesn't always work out the way it should but I have an understanding. It's easier to see where the Stock Market is going under these conditions than the PM's. And, even the market doesn't always react the way it should. But, you have better and quicker results from the Stock Market. My wife and I are heavily invested in the SM, not necessary by choice. Her state teachers retirement fund is stock loaded. Both our 401 and old 201's, mutual funds, inherited, ect we've acquired over the past 47 years, all stocks as near as I can tell. My every six month's financial statement gives me a headache but my wife says it's OK. All I care about it lately is my name is on every document. God, help me if she dies first.

But, back to my original post. I still see plywood going up over business windows locally. Concrete processing yards stacked to the sky with pre-formed concrete pipes and other products not selling with a percentage of their employees laid off. Rental truck yards, and real truck hauling business with their yards sitting full of trucks not on the move, all important indicators of an economy not on any type of upward movement. Plus, a long list of brand name business announcing their intent to close stores. Sear, Target, Best Buy, ect. My guess of a PM and SM bust still holds. I'm not claiming a Mel Gibson type movie event happening. But, just hard times and a bucket full of silver dimes isn't the answer.

 

[TreasurePirate69]

Well, first of all, I hope that your health conditions improve. Being on pain meds is no way to have to go through life.

Second, I can't argue with anything you've said. I don't have any personal experience with concrete yards, rental truck yards, and truck hauling businesses. So these businesses may indeed be suffering which would not be a good sign. All I have is anecdotal evidence which is rarely worth anything.

 

[lost]

TP69...we were posting at the same time. Yes, I agree it's a regional thing. In my neck of the woods, close to DC, it looks like the whole place is preparing to shut down. Sequester or the fear of it.. My personal Physician of 25 odd years retired because of health reasons. Three doctor office. They didn't replace him. Cost cutting. Now I have a two week wait for an appointment. I might as well become like the local Hispanics, use the ER. Waiting behind 50 unregistered democrats (Hispanics) is faster than two weeks. Remember, I'm on pain med's. LoL