current gold price levels illogical

[jeff of pa]

Unprecedented demand for physical gold does not even seem to be having any impact at all on the metal price as high frequency traders rule the day. Illogical!

Mr Spock would definitely find current gold price levels illogical - GOLD ANALYSIS - Mineweb.com Mineweb

 

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[Marchas45]

Unprecedented demand for physical gold does not even seem to be having any impact at all on the metal price as high frequency traders rule the day. Illogical!

Mr Spock would definitely find current gold price levels illogical - GOLD ANALYSIS - Mineweb.com Mineweb

As Mr. Spock say's " After a time, you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing, after all, as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true." I say," You must have strong hands to hold on in this Manipulative Market".

 

[jim4silver]

I think it is great that the latest smack down in PM prices actually increased demand as opposed to quashing it. I think the manipulators believed it would keep people away.

I was talking to an old PM bug that I know and he believes all the selling in GLD and such is actually big buyers leaving paper products to put their money into physical. I had not really thought about that but it sounds plausible considering world wide demand for gold is thru the roof now.

Jim

 

[jeff of pa]

yea I believe this is actually saving JP Morgan's butt.

they can buy out at lower prices,
and at the same time Purchase Physical to cover their tracks
before there is a full accounting on their paper.

although Physical is the only way I would Go.
I think the investors in paper out there, if they can't trade to physical,
should still stand firm & hold on to it for the next rise,
unless it is impossible

 

[TreasurePirate69]

When you find yourself saying over and over that the way things are going seems illogical, then eventually you need to ask yourself if your view of the world is correct. This all is perfectly logical from my point of view. The bubble has burst and people are catching the falling knife. The demand is high because the price is low, not the other way around. Looking at it from that point of view you can see that what we are currently experiencing would be perfectly logical if my beliefs are correct.

But time and time again people out here are left scratching their heads about why the price is so low given all the things they believe. At some point you would think they would start to wonder if their belief systems were correct. How many times can someone sit and scratch their head wondering why the world seems so illogical before they start to wonder if the actual problem is on their own end?

 

[jeff of pa]

actually it seems illogical to me because it's like oil.
the claim is there is only so much to go around, so high demand calls for Higher prices.

Yes the Bubble has burst & prices are dropping




But Why ?



considering premiums are rising, places like the U.s. mint are limiting sales,
and Demand is supposedly still increasing.

futures should be through the roof.
but for some illogical reason, those who control the futures prices are sleeping

or are they ?

 

[TreasurePirate69]

The past bubble prices were not being supported by supply and demand because they were pumped up by fear and speculation. If the true price of silver and gold should be $16 and $900 respectively, then people can run out and buy all they want right now without really affecting the price much. The futures prices are coming down simply because they realize that in the future the price is going to be lower than it is today. It seems perfectly logical to me. That doesn't mean I'm right. It just means that so far this all makes sense and doesn't shake my belief system.

 

[jeff of pa]

well personally I'd like to see this for a year before the next bubble

 

[jim4silver]

The past bubble prices were not being supported by supply and demand because they were pumped up by fear and speculation. If the true price of silver and gold should be $16 and $900 respectively, then people can run out and buy all they want right now without really affecting the price much. The futures prices are coming down simply because they realize that in the future the price is going to be lower than it is today. It seems perfectly logical to me. That doesn't mean I'm right. It just means that so far this all makes sense and doesn't shake my belief system.

Premiums are going up and supply is virtually non existent locally for silver. We should know in a matter of weeks or at most a few months if supply is going to catch up with demand. If the prices stay here or go lower, you are going to really see people wanting to buy. Funny how people can look at the same facts/data and come up with completely different views re silver going to 50 or 16.

One of my colleagues who bought her first silver ever about 8 months ago or so called me yesterday. I hadn't spoken to her since her purchase and I figured she'd be pi$$ed because she bought her ASEs when silver was 32 (she paid 35). She wanted info now on gold and plans to get about $25K worth. I was surprised that she told me something "seemed funny" that the prices were dropping so much but people were buying so much here and in other countries. Looks like she is waking up to what is going on.

Jim

 

[jeff of pa]

unfortunately allot of the talk is from Suppliers & Buyers.

Buyers will tell you "Sell" ! before silver hits $16. they will try their best to convice you it's done
for the next 10 years.

Sellers will try to convince you any day now Silver will break new Highs
buy , Buy Buy !

 

[jim4silver]

unfortunately allot of the talk is from Suppliers & Buyers.

Buyers will tell you "Sell" ! before silver hits $16. they will try their best to convice you it's done
for the next 10 years.

Sellers will try to convince you any day now Silver will break new Highs
buy , Buy Buy !

Yes but talk is cheap as they say. Just looking at facts there is an obvious difference that has been developing between paper and phys price and paper and phys demand. Still too soon to verify that TreasurePirate is all washed up on this . However, as the old saying goes "money talks, BS walks".

When junk silver is selling for over $5 melt per oz of pure silver, ASEs are selling for over $6 for coins not yet minted, and generic bars/rounds (yes even the 100 oz bars) are not available in local coin shops (and national wholesalers are running out) yet the silver price in the paper market is dropping like a rock, well that leads me to believe at least some people demand silver and said demand is vibrant in that these folks are out buying and/or ordering currently nonexistent silver products.

Jim

 

[skeeterd]

When the spot price of silver dropped to around $22 about a month ago, demand skyrocketed. People wanted to buy while prices were low. I would have thought demand would taper off as spot prices stayed at low levels. But it hasn't and that is what confuses me. Personally, I'm still buying because I am always buying silver. But I don't see what is driving everyone else to buy so much as premiums rise. That is what I see as illogical.

 

[TreasurePirate69]

I'm not arguing that physical silver on the small investor level is drying up or is gone. I'm also not arguing that it could also be drying up on the larger level. And I would expect this to create a rather temporary increase in prices both in paper and physical markets. In fact, we saw this a bit the last couple of weeks. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this current mania takes us back up to $25+ for a couple of months. But I believe the overall trend is down and these prices will be temporary.

However.... (and you knew that was coming), I still say that what we are seeing is perfectly logical. People are trying to catch the falling knife. And they are doing it more so now than when the price was higher. This is to be expected and I think we will see it more and more as the price falls toward $16. When silver was $49 and dropped quickly to $40, there was very little increased demand. The mindset was that the price ran up to $49 quickly and wasn't a "real" price anyway. So at that point you still saw a few people buying on the quick dip. But very few people were thinking that $40 could be the true bottom. But on every single big drop since I believe we have seen more and more people jumping in to try and time the bottom. The lower it goes, the more people you will have that will be saying "this time is it". This implies that there will be increasing levels of support as the price goes lower and lower. Seems logical to me.

The thing that gets me the most is that here we are again looking at only one side of the equation because it suits us. Where was all of this supply/demand speculation when silver ran from $30 to $49 in a matter of weeks? The demand necessary to cause such an increase didn't appear to really be there did it? Why was no one saying that it was illogical? Also, the demand was way down in 2012 and before this last big drop. The huge demand only started AFTER the last big drop. Yet there are plenty of PM bulls claiming that the price is falling IN SPITE OF rising demand which doesn't appear to be the case. The falling price came BEFORE the rise in demand, not in spite of it. A simple cause and effect relationship.

 

[jim4silver]

When the spot price of silver dropped to around $22 about a month ago, demand skyrocketed. People wanted to buy while prices were low. I would have thought demand would taper off as spot prices stayed at low levels. But it hasn't and that is what confuses me. Personally, I'm still buying because I am always buying silver. But I don't see what is driving everyone else to buy so much as premiums rise. That is what I see as illogical.

Maybe they see the worldwide paper market house of cards is gonna fall someday. Cyprus was a wake up call for many non PM bug types. Those of us already there became more convinced. When a market is rigged, you see the discrepancies between physical and paper.

PS To those friends here who don't believe in market manipulation and that those who believe are simply conspiracy theorist goofballs, I would like to direct your attention to the LIBOR market rigging. LIBOR is way way bigger than the paper PM markets. If they can rig LIBOR why not commodities? By the way, the LIBOR rigging is a fact, not conspiracy opinion.

Just a couple of articles on the LIBOR scandals.

Rabobank Faces Libor-Rigging Fine of $440 Million Plus - Bloomberg

Schwab Sues Banks in LIBOR Rigging - May 2, 2013 - Zacks.com


Jim

 

[TreasurePirate69]

Maybe they see the worldwide paper market house of cards is gonna fall someday. Cyprus was a wake up call for many non PM bug types. Those of us already there became more convinced. When a market is rigged, you see the discrepancies between physical and paper.

PS To those friends here who don't believe in market manipulation and that those who believe are simply conspiracy theorist goofballs, I would like to direct your attention to the LIBOR market rigging. LIBOR is way way bigger than the paper PM markets. If they can rig LIBOR why not commodities? By the way, the LIBOR rigging is a fact, not conspiracy opinion.

Just a couple of articles on the LIBOR scandals.

Rabobank Faces Libor-Rigging Fine of $440 Million Plus - Bloomberg

Schwab Sues Banks in LIBOR Rigging - May 2, 2013 - Zacks.com


Jim

Can individual investors banding together impact Libor rates? Are Libor rates used to impact the price of a commodity that is desired by individuals and industries? The answer is "no" and "no". Libor is easily manipulated. It is basically a figure created by a handful of bankers with very little outside oversight or market influence. Futures prices of a commodity like silver can still be manipulated. But those futures are contracts to take physical delivery of an actual product, not just some interest rate. Real companies with real silver sell on the COMEX. Sure, there are a lot of contracts that don't get delivered. But they COULD get delivered if the prices between paper and physical diverge enough. This keeps the "paper" price in check. Is it possible for enough people on the COMEX to demand delivery such that the paper market collapses? Yes, but it would not happen all at once and the COMEX would basically force delivery in cash as their backup to make sure the whole "house of cards" never comes crumbling down. It can happen but it is a far cry from a handful of bankers fudging a few interest rate values in their favor. That doesn't mean silver manipulation doesn't exist. After all, the price of silver skyrocketed way above the average inflation adjusted price back in 2011 even though demand and supply did not indicate such a move should happen....

 

[jim4silver]

Can individual investors banding together impact Libor rates? Are Libor rates used to impact the price of a commodity that is desired by individuals and industries? The answer is "no" and "no". Libor is easily manipulated. It is basically a figure created by a handful of bankers with very little outside oversight or market influence. Futures prices of a commodity like silver can still be manipulated. But those futures are contracts to take physical delivery of an actual product, not just some interest rate. Real companies with real silver sell on the COMEX. Sure, there are a lot of contracts that don't get delivered. But they COULD get delivered if the prices between paper and physical diverge enough. This keeps the "paper" price in check. Is it possible for enough people on the COMEX to demand delivery such that the paper market collapses? Yes, but it would not happen all at once and the COMEX would basically force delivery in cash as their backup to make sure the whole "house of cards" never comes crumbling down. It can happen but it is a far cry from a handful of bankers fudging a few interest rate values in their favor. That doesn't mean silver manipulation doesn't exist. After all, the price of silver skyrocketed way above the average inflation adjusted price back in 2011 even though demand and supply did not indicate such a move should happen....

That is good one TreasurePirate, but just know that Charlie (Marchas) and I will be personally cooking up the crow that you will be eating here in the not so distant future .

Jim

 

[TreasurePirate69]

That is good one TreasurePirate, but just know that Charlie (Marchas) and I will be personally cooking up the crow that you will be eating here in the not so distant future .

Jim

Sounds good. I'll publicly eat it and say how great it tastes.

 

[Marchas45]

Sounds good. I'll publicly eat it and say how great it tastes.

It actually goes down well with a good bottle of Beer. I will buy that.