By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

[chinman]

By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

This should make everyone feel better...

Let's say there are 1,000 active CRHers, hunting halves in this forum, that on average have 5,000 64-70 silver coins.

That totals 5,000,000 (million) coins.

The total coins for circulation in these years is 1,278,404,456, that's Billion.

5 million is only .39% of the total coins minted for circulation. Less than half of 1 %.

That doesn't include the 19 million NIFC.

Just a stab at a larger scale. 50 states * 10,000 CRHer averaging 500 coins each, still leaves 80% of the numbers "out there"

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[clovis97]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

Interesting point.

FWIW, I wish I had 5,000 silver halves.

Heck, I'd love to just have 500. I'd be a very happy camper.

 

[cunextuesday]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

But you have to take into account that millions of them have already been melted down. I'm sure that there are tens or hundreds of millions still out there waiting to be found, but the hunt brothers sure did cause lots of coins to be forever lost.

 

[Bigheed]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

Ya there were a couple big purges in history

1918 Pittman act melted down 270,000,000 + silver dollars alone & probably some other denominations to be re-cast as bullion bars

1970s manipulation of the silver market by the Hunt Brothers.

2011 runups in April and September to 40+ per ozT

That being said even if there is half of the original amount of silver coinage or even less than half there is still a HUGE amount of coinage out there for the hunting. Theres just ALOT more total coins in circulation now so finding it takes more work, gotta do more volume if you can!

Keep on hunting everyone and most of all HAVE FUN this is a hobby after that can yield some seriously nice paybacks, but keep perspective.

HH,
Bigheed

 

[mts]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

You forgot to consider all of the people and coin dealers who have thousands of these on hand. There is a difference between what waits to be found in circulation and what exists outside of circulation.

Available in circulation = (Total minted) - (total melted down) - (private collections all over the world) - (coin dealer inventory) - (lost in the ground) - (stuck in a box at brinks that is buried so deep, no one will ever get to it)

 

[clovis97]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

You forgot to consider all of the people and coin dealers who have thousands of these on hand. There is a difference between what waits to be found in circulation and what exists outside of circulation.

Available in circulation = (Total minted) - (total melted down) - (private collections all over the world) - (coin dealer inventory) - (lost in the ground) - (stuck in a box at brinks that is buried so deep, no one will ever get to it)

My uncle, back in the mid-70's, got paid once in Walking Liberty halves. He has about $100 in face. Those coins have been carefully stored away since then.

 

[skelly9131]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

The way I see it, unless a coin has been actually melted down or destroyed it's still out there. Even if it's in the hands of CRHers, it may still reenter circulation at some point.

 

[mts]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

The way I see it, unless a coin has been actually melted down or destroyed it's still out there. Even if it's in the hands of CRHers, it may still reenter circulation at some point.

Agreed. But in the end, it doesn't matter how many halves could be available to be found. It only matters how many you are actually finding.

 

[madwest]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

The way I see it, unless a coin has been actually melted down or destroyed it's still out there. Even if it's in the hands of CRHers, it may still reenter circulation at some point.

Agreed. But in the end, it doesn't matter how many halves could be available to be found. It only matters how many you are actually finding.

Yup. It's all about how many there might be in areas you are looking. Most of us are looking in coin rolls (vault bags and teller trays included). Logic suggests that any point in time, there are fewer in rolled coin than there are in hoards.

 

[GMan00001]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

I did some math about what is left in a circulation a few years back based on my find percentages at the time for most denominations (at the time I was doing fairly significant volume so it at least had some validity).

I posted my results of what I thought was left in circulation at the time.

You should be able to find that old post here.

http://forum.treasurenet.com/index.php/topic,138196.msg981330.html#msg981330

 

[Hi Ho Silver!]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

Probably more then that "Watson"

 

[Argentium]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

This is an interesting question indeed ! However - there are so many variables involved , that
I'm pretty sure all calculations are pretty much useless . For example , while we can know how
many of a particular issue were minted , we cannot find out how many no longer exist due to
melting . We also have no way of accounting for the number of silver coins being fed back into
our supply by the unknowing and the uncaring - or for that matter the number of coins being
removed from current circulation by CRH-ers. I have always maintained that CRH-ing is just
about the most truly random activity I have been involved with. Argentium.

 

[GMan00001]

Re: By the numbers....what can still be "out there"

Probably more then that "Watson"

If you were referring to my calculations, you may be right. As I said in my earlier post, my original calcs were based on my find percentages only. To get a truly representative output, one would need find percentages from many different areas of the country with enough volume to be statistically significant. I know the east coast tends to do far better than I do and based on what I read some areas seem to do worse.

If nothing else, they give some ball park estimates.