A good interview on post Cyprus possibilities

[jim4silver]

Jim Rogers is one of my favorite pundits. Probably not right to even call him a pundit per se because he has actually walked the walk so to speak. He and George Sorros were business partners years ago and made mucho $$$$$ in commodities and currency trading.

Jim Rogers: "I Suspect They'll Take The Pension Plans Next; I For One Am Worried, And I'm Taking Preparations" | Bull Market Thinking

Jim

 

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[Marchas45]

Jim Rogers is one of my favorite pundits. Probably not right to even call him a pundit per se because he has actually walked the walk so to speak. He and George Sorros were business partners years ago and made mucho $$$$$ in commodities and currency trading.

Jim Rogers: "I Suspect They'll Take The Pension Plans Next; I For One Am Worried, And I'm Taking Preparations" | Bull Market Thinking

Jim

Good article Jim, I've been preparing for three years now and have very little in the bank just enough to pay the bills. Charlie

 

[TreasurePirate69]

I thought we already covered this Cyprus mess. He keeps saying "the precedent has now been set". What? Am I the only one in the world who is not being fooled by this fear mongering?

 

[jim4silver]

I thought we already covered this Cyprus mess. He keeps saying "the precedent has now been set". What? Am I the only one in the world who is not being fooled by this fear mongering?

TreasurePirate,

I respect your opinions very much, but I believe you either don't fully understand how the Cyprus situation went down, or maybe you are just wrong on this one. I am always very clear when I post something whether it is fact or opinion. Anyone's opinion should be equal to anyone else's, even though in the end one will be wrong and one right (if it is a zero sum game type of situation).

You keep comparing Cyprus to other bank "closures" here and elsewhere. The Cyprus deal is NOT NOT NOT NOT a bank closure like the others (you keep saying it is just like the other banks who have gone under, but this bank has not gone under). Yes, one bank was "merged" into the larger bank, but the larger bank is still in business, just with more cash since they stole mucho $$$$$ from the "uninsured" deposits. Just because they are uninsured does not mean it is Okey dokey for the bank to take them in my view even if it is legal, then reopen the doors like nothing happened. Name me just one instance in the past where a bank confiscated deposits and stayed open, business as usual.

But in this instance, someone like Jim Rogers who is not normally a "fear monger" as you state says this is a big deal and to beware, I am going to listen. I already thought it was a big deal, but when someone like him warns about it I feel more confident I am right. In fact, if you listen to any of his interviews (other than this one) he is not a "cheerleader" for any particular views, and in the past couple of years he has not been saying much about PMs at all (he always says he owns gold and silver but is not buying at these levels, but hopes he is smart enough to buy more if the prices go lower-that is a rough paraphrase). I have lost respect for 99% of the PM bug pundits I used to listen to all the time, but this guy is not in that camp.

What happened in Cyprus and will happen in other places later may in the end not cause PMs to go up in price (even though it should), we will have to wait for that to see. But to think this event is really not a big deal is a mistake.

Just my opinion (except where I say TreasurePirate is wrong) LOL!

Jim

 

[TreasurePirate69]

TreasurePirate,

I respect your opinions very much, but I believe you either don't fully understand how the Cyprus situation went down, or maybe you are just wrong on this one. I am always very clear when I post something whether it is fact or opinion. Anyone's opinion should be equal to anyone else's, even though in the end one will be wrong and one right (if it is a zero sum game type of situation).

You keep comparing Cyprus to other bank "closures" here and elsewhere. The Cyprus deal is NOT NOT NOT NOT a bank closure like the others (you keep saying it is just like the other banks who have gone under, but this bank has not gone under). Yes, one bank was "merged" into the larger bank, but the larger bank is still in business, just with more cash since they stole mucho $$$$$ from the "uninsured" deposits. Just because they are uninsured does not mean it is Okey dokey for the bank to take them in my view even if it is legal, then reopen the doors like nothing happened. Name me just one instance in the past where a bank confiscated deposits and stayed open, business as usual.

But in this instance, someone like Jim Rogers who is not normally a "fear monger" as you state says this is a big deal and to beware, I am going to listen. I already thought it was a big deal, but when someone like him warns about it I feel more confident I am right. In fact, if you listen to any of his interviews (other than this one) he is not a "cheerleader" for any particular views, and in the past couple of years he has not been saying much about PMs at all (he always says he owns gold and silver but is not buying at these levels, but hopes he is smart enough to buy more if the prices go lower-that is a rough paraphrase). I have lost respect for 99% of the PM bug pundits I used to listen to all the time, but this guy is not in that camp.

What happened in Cyprus and will happen in other places later may in the end not cause PMs to go up in price (even though it should), we will have to wait for that to see. But to think this event is really not a big deal is a mistake.

Just my opinion (except where I say TreasurePirate is wrong) LOL!

Jim

I let the above highlighted statement go in the other thread but since you insist on this I have to say that I completely disagree. It is ALWAYS the case here in the USA that when a bank goes bankrupt another bank comes in and takes the "good" assets and continues to do business. This includes deposits that are covered and any assets that are deemed to be in the black. This is exactly what has happened in Cyprus. You are really getting hung up on the idea that one bank was closed and another was kept. Frankly, I don't see that as being any different. And even if it was/is, I don't see it as being a big deal. You say that they took uninsured depositors money. Many people say that it was "confiscated". Frankly, you can't confiscate something that is not there in the first place. There have been so few details about what is really going to happen in Cyprus that it is completely premature to be assuming anything. And this means that it is especially premature to be assuming that uninsured depositors funds were confiscated and given to another bank. If you have direct proof of this happening I'd really like to see it. My understanding is that the "good" bank was not in the red to begin with but had some toxic assets (not deposits) that it would be helpful to have off of their balance sheet. These were transfered to the "bad" bank. The bad bank had both good and toxic assets too. So they took the insured deposits and good assets and gave them to the good bank. Uninsured deposits weren't there to begin with so these were not "confiscated" at all since they didn't exist. But I am more than happy to admit when I am wrong. If I am wrong on this then I'd like to know it.

I left the other thread with the same question that you decided not to answer (that is your choice). Let's agree there are some minor differences between what happens here in the US and what happened in Cyprus. So what? Are these minor differences enough to warrant the rash of fear mongering that has been going on with respect to Cyprus? Uninsured depositors lost around 40% of their deposits. Well, IndyMac depositors lost 50% of their deposits several years ago. Where was the rage? Where was the doom and gloom that the American and European governments were conspiring to take everyone's money?Are there differences? Yes. And they are very slight. It is akin to you saying your car is so much different than mine because yours is red and mine is blue.

I'll climb down off of the Cyprus soap box now. I've had my say. I just think that when a pundit like this clearly twists the facts like this he can't really be trusted. You were raging a couple of months ago about pundits that were clearly lying. You couldn't believe that people just accepted their word and never seemed to call them on the ridiculous claims they were making. Well.... welcome to my world.

 

[TreasurePirate69]

By the way, I absolutely swear on my Grandma's grave that I will never again mention the Cyprus situation.

 

[jim4silver]

Sorry I didn't answer your question in another thread but I will say that for me the big deal about it is that once something like that happens, it tends to spread to other areas. Given that many countries are faced with huge debt/deficit problems in Europe just as we are here, I fear the "Cyprus" remedy will be replicated in other places (we will have to just disagree on whether it is a rare event or the same as all other bank failures). At some point maybe after we breach the $20 Trillion debt level they will have to come up with some other plan than QEs to keep things running. Whether they decide on pensions, retirement accounts or like Cyprus go straight for the uninsured bank accounts, they will have to do something different to keep the game going, unless the economy does a 180 and everything turns out OK and we all hold hands and sing Kumbaya together.

I am more confident we will see more "Cyprus" situations over the next few years someplace in the world than I am silver is going to hit $100 some day way far off in the future, and I am pretty sure of that.

PS As far as anyone saying nothing was confiscated because the money wasn't there is not factual. If the bank owes a customer even as a nonsecured creditor (depositor), by the bank extinguishing their debt to the cutomer without said customer's consent, well it could be called confiscation. Further, since the main bank involved was never dissolved, we really don't know what their assets are, which if sold could have recouped possibly some $$$$ back to the depositors, which is how it is done here if a bank fails.

Let's agree to discuss Cyprus again when/if another country does the same thing.

Jim

 

[TreasurePirate69]

Sorry I didn't answer your question in another thread but I will say that for me the big deal about it is that once something like that happens, it tends to spread to other areas. Given that many countries are faced with huge debt/deficit problems in Europe just as we are here, I fear the "Cyprus" remedy will be replicated in other places (we will have to just disagree on whether it is a rare event or the same as all other bank failures). At some point maybe after we breach the $20 Trillion debt level they will have to come up with some other plan than QEs to keep things running. Whether they decide on pensions, retirement accounts or like Cyprus go straight for the uninsured bank accounts, they will have to do something different to keep the game going, unless the economy does a 180 and everything turns out OK and we all hold hands and sing Kumbaya together.

I am more confident we will see more "Cyprus" situations over the next few years someplace in the world than I am silver is going to hit $100 some day way far off in the future, and I am pretty sure of that.

PS As far as anyone saying nothing was confiscated because the money wasn't there is not factual. If the bank owes a customer even as a nonsecured creditor (depositor), by the bank extinguishing their debt to the cutomer without said customer's consent, well it could be called confiscation. Further, since the main bank involved was never dissolved, we really don't know what their assets are, which if sold could have recouped possibly some $$$$ back to the depositors, which is how it is done here if a bank fails.

Let's agree to discuss Cyprus again when/if another country does the same thing.

Jim

Sounds like a good plan.