A big move in PMs coming soon?

[jim4silver]

With all the EU crap going on plus everything here, it seems to me that PMs are going to move big in the near future, but in which direction I have no idea.

Some pundits are saying that when a default in Greece is officially announced it will force many large investors/hedge funds/etc, into cash, but that PMs and the stock market will fall. However, some are saying that fear and uncertainty in the EU will draw the big money to PMs. Both camps cannot be correct at the same time, so it will be interesting to see which way it goes. Personally I am leaning towards a short term drop in PMs but I have been saying that for a while and it has not materialized yet. I hope to buy up some cheaper silver if at all possible this fall.

If PMs do have a sudden large correction, I don't think there will be a problem finding silver as some say would happen in such a correction. Yes, the premiums will be up as always on big drops, but I feel many of the "weak hands" type investors who buy high and sell low will unload all the silver they have been buying in the 30-48 range over the past year as panic sets in and they suddenly believe (wrongly) that PMs are a crappy investment and decide to get out. When silver hit near 50 this spring it drew in many new PM investors (big and small) who "got the fever" due to all the press coverage of silver's meteoric rise coupled with all the pundits proclaiming silver was headed straight to $100+ per ounce in a matter of weeks/months. Many of these late to the game investors are not true silver bugs (the kind that will hold no matter what happens) in my opinion and will run for cover if a big correction were to happen.

Some are saying that Greece has already defaulted in the eyes of the market in that Greek one year treasuries just closed with a 130+% interest rate. On September 1, the rate was 60%. So over double interest rate increase in two weeks.

If things continue as they are now in the EU I believe our stock market will get hit too, which could help pull down PMs if things moved like they did in 2008 when our market crashed and silver went from 21 to 9.

Or course if things get bad here in the stock market they could always announce another QE round and the stock markets would probably temporarily climb up again since all the new money would need a place to go.

Interesting times we live in that is for sure. All above just my opinion.

Jim

 

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[jim4silver]

Looks like gold is getting closer to that "gap" in the charts at 1638. There is an old stock saying that gaps always get filled, either up or down. Silver has broken down farther than I thought in such a short time. Thus, low 20s seems like a good chance of happening.

This correction is actually a huge GIFT. Anyone out there who feels anything less than joy about this needs to sell the next time PMs are up and put their money into cash. Have all the world's problems that caused this PM bull market to happen over the last 10 years gone away? Have interest rates gone up so as to make the dollar stronger"? The answers are NO. In fact, this last move by the fed announced this week actually will lower interest rates (referred to as "operation twist"). This is all PM positive in the long run.

Just months ago many people were crying about not being able to buy enough silver when it was approaching 50 bucks and some were proclaiming that 100 bucks was just around the corner. These corrections are great for shaking out the weak hands and I will tell you I have no doubt that many late comers who bought near 50 for the first time in April/May are now headed to the coin store to dump their "bad investment".

By next year (probably much earlier) gold will be over 2000 per ounce. Who knows where silver will be but it will be higher. This may very well be the last time you can get PMs are "discount" prices.

I just wish I had saved more $$$$ to buy this correction instead of doing my dollar cost averaging religiously. But nobody can ever be perfect when it comes to investing. Funny to think that right now platinum is selling for less than it costs to produce per ounce.

Jim

 

[hombre_de_plata_flaco]

The bubble has burst my friend. The party is over IMO. It doesn't matter that "none of the economic factors have changed" when the price dips this much.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I should have sold all mine before the "Bin Laden Crash" that brought silver from $49 down to $33.

Well, I waited for it to get back up to $45. Instead it hit $44 and sank back down to $40. That's when I cashed in my silver chips. It's currently at around $32. I'm still holding some but the majority of mine is collectible coins now. Glad I got out when I did honestly. I really wasn't that big a "player" anyway.

If I buy any more it will be purchased from desperate people at 50% of spot to be flipped immediately. I hate to pay that little but the stuff is liable to fall another 10% before I have a chance to sell it.

I just shipped 25 ounces off to a refinery. The day I mailed it off I was expecting to get $1000 back. Then I was expecting $800. Now I'll be lucky to get $700.....

 

[santafeboy]

Its nice that I get most of mine at face value

 

[jim4silver]

The bubble has burst my friend. The party is over IMO. It doesn't matter that "none of the economic factors have changed" when the price dips this much.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I should have sold all mine before the "Bin Laden Crash" that brought silver from $49 down to $33.

Well, I waited for it to get back up to $45. Instead it hit $44 and sank back down to $40. That's when I cashed in my silver chips. It's currently at around $32. I'm still holding some but the majority of mine is collectible coins now. Glad I got out when I did honestly. I really wasn't that big a "player" anyway.

If I buy any more it will be purchased from desperate people at 50% of spot to be flipped immediately. I hate to pay that little but the stuff is liable to fall another 10% before I have a chance to sell it.

I just shipped 25 ounces off to a refinery. The day I mailed it off I was expecting to get $1000 back. Then I was expecting $800. Now I'll be lucky to get $700.....

Although I disagree with your view that the bubble has burst I respect your opinion and perhaps you might turn out correct (but I highly doubt it ).

I don't know if you are fairly new to the PM game, but back in 2008 silver dropped from 21 to 9, that is over a 65% drop in a short time. It then rallied from 9 to near 50. So if you think this correction is bad, go back and check out some older silver charts.

Back in that last correction many were saying what you are saying now (people I personally know), and those same people started buying after silver broke the mid 40s right before the crash this May. I call those people the buy high sell low folks, some call them the "weak hands". Usually they get scared and bail when prices correct but are often the biggest cheerleaders when it is making a new high (again I referring to some people I know personally and not you).

Let's see which of us is right. We should know by Christmas this year or a year from now at the latest.

Jim

 

[quiksilver]

the short version is

If you think every thing will be fine then sell sell sell

If you think everything will get worse then buy buy buy

 

[manorman]

If you have been buying for a long time you are still way ahead, i always sell half of my investment once the price doubles that way im even, if it goes up i still make money if it goes down i buy more when it gets back to a price i think is a bargin.
Mike

 

[olepossum]

hell yes there is a big move gold has already gone down 3-4 hundred in spot price and silver has gone down 10-15 in spot price look out if gold gets anylower than 13 golld is gonna sale sale sale you whatch

 

[XL-PRO PRO]

Anyone remember the Hunt brothers?Back in the 70's silver was my motovation to get into MDing.I could find silver quarters and sell them for $4 at a time when minimum wage was less than $2/hr.They(the Hunts) didn't count on the number of people that had silver to sell.To make a long story short-supply met demand and the price dropped.Judging by the number of places buying and the number of people selling it shouldn't take long for supply to meet demand again.Most people have a cache of gold and silver of some kind even now.

 

[jim4silver]

Anyone remember the Hunt brothers?Back in the 70's silver was my motovation to get into MDing.I could find silver quarters and sell them for $4 at a time when minimum wage was less than $2/hr.They(the Hunts) didn't count on the number of people that had silver to sell.To make a long story short-supply met demand and the price dropped.Judging by the number of places buying and the number of people selling it shouldn't take long for supply to meet demand again.Most people have a cache of gold and silver of some kind even now.

I don't know what "most people" you are talking about? Maybe if you mean the folks on this website. If you are referring to the average person in the US I am afraid you are wrong. Going by all my friends, acquaintances and family, I would say less than 10% own any gold or silver bullion. Jewelry--YES, some junk silver grandpa passed down--Maybe; Eagles, Krugs, etc,--NONE. But this is good, the fact that so few own bullion tells me this bull market is far from over.

This recent downfall has nothing to do with fundamentals. If so, the fall would be more gradual. Over 25% fall in silver prices in two days means other factors are in play.

I am sure we will see further declines into next week and I am glad because I plan on buying more as prices fall. If there is no physical available I will play the leveraged ETFs. But from what I am seeing there is still physical available at the local and online stores, even though the premiums are up.

Jim

 

[fistfulladirt]

Most people have a cache of gold and silver of some kind even now.

Seriously? Unless I consider that some people have a few rings or pieces of jewelry laying around, no one that I know, even all the people that I work with, and almost all of my relatives, are not sitting on any caches of any sort, involving PM's. In their worlds, paper currency rules.

 

[XL-PRO PRO]

Keep buying and they'll keep selling!I'm pretty sure that every female in my family has a fairly well stocked jewelry box(which they have no desire to part with) and most members have a coin collection of some kind.The gold buyers in my area all seem to have plenty of sellers based on what I've seen while visiting(my son takes guitar lessons at pawn/music business and my daughter works at gold buyer/jeweler).At any rate,do what your gut feeling tells you but I find it hard to believe gold is in short supply and even harder to think that silver is.

 

[Roadquest]

I think we will see silver at $25 per oz. And then go up again.

 

[savant365]

I'm just guessing but between now and Christmas would be a good time to be a buyer of PM's. I wish I had the money to invest in silver right now.

 

[olepossum]

if gold makes it to 2,000 or more i see the dollar worth almost 0 and silver is harder to mine than gold is

 

[jim4silver]

if gold makes it to 2,000 or more i see the dollar worth almost 0 and silver is harder to mine than gold is

What proof do you have of this with respect to silver being harder to mine? Is that your opinion or are you stating that as a fact. Just curious.

Jim