1996 vs. 2008 - A wheat cent comparison

[Immy]

Today's quick trip to the casino gave me a snapshot into how much wheat cents are disappearing from circulation over time. In 1996 I did a survey of 100,000 pennies (from a different casino) and carefully tabulated all my finds; wheats, Canadians, foreigns, even the frequency of memorial dates.

This year's heavy emphasis on pennies gave me a great opportunity to do a comparative survey, though not as thorough. The results put into focus how wheat pennies are disappearing at a steady rate.

First today's finds, from $50 -

Indian: [red]*1902*[/red] Woo hoo, that's two in one month!

Wheaties: 1945-S, 1946-S, 1948, 1953-D, 1955, 1958-D

Canadian: 1973, 1974, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007 RCM (3)

Foreign: Spain, 2 euro cents, 2001


Those six new wheaties gave me 396 for the year, the same total as the 1996 survey. The difference is, whereas I searched thru only $1,000 in '96, my search total this year is over $2,200. So back then you could expect roughly four wheaties per $10 but today it's less than two.

These are only general numbers of course, and only for my part of the country, but they're a good rough guess as to the population of wheats left to be found out there. Will the numbers continue to dwindle as the years go by? Probably. And I'll be here a few years from now to document it...if pennies are still around!

[blue]See GMan's much more in depth statistical analysis below. You da man![/blue]

 

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[sfwusc]

I think the copper hoarders are helping to cause this. They are going through thousands of dollars a week using a ryedale pulling the copper and wheats out.

If the melt ban goes, then I bet the copper cent goes soon after. A big operation will pull them all out.

-SWUSC

 

[GMan00001]

Great find on 2 IHC in one month Immy....I am still waiting for my first of the year...

This year's heavy emphasis on pennies gave me a great opportunity to do a comparative survey, though not as thorough. The results put into focus how wheat pennies are disappearing at a steady rate.

Well, since the years are so far apart, you also need to take into account one other factor. Since 1996, the US mint has been pumping out billions upon billions of zincolns. Now even if not a single wheat penny disappeared from circulation your find rate would be considerably lower due to more none wheat pennies being added to circulation.

Here's the quick math:
# wheat pennies minted: 25,817,156,493
# memorial pennies minted (1959-1995): 308,956,492,890
# memorial pennies minted (1996-2007): 113,097,795,500

Assumes the current years mintage has very little circulation yet in what is being searched (which based on my observations is fairly accurate).
In 1996, wheat pennies made up 7.7118% of the overall pennies minted. (#wheats/#mem 1959-1995)
In 2008, wheat pennies make up 5.7644% of the overall pennies minted. (#wheats/#mem 1959-2007)


Now you added the fact that in 1996, you were finding 4 wheat pennies per $10.00 (or 4 per 1000 pennies = 0.4%)
This implies that a large percentage of the wheat pennies had already been removed from circulation. For easier math, assume only the wheat pennies are pulled and memorial pennies are all still circulating in 1996.
This would mean that (#wheats/308,956,492,890) = 0.4%. In other words 1,247,508,927 wheats were still circulating in 1996.

Now assume none of the 1,247,508,927 wheats still circulating in 1996 are removed from circulation before your next survey in 2008.
The % of wheats drops from 0.4% in 1996 to 0.295% in 2008 purely because the mint added more pennies to circulation. So although it appears that find rate was cut in half or more, in actuality a drop in the find rate of over 25% would be expected because there are more coins in circulation.

The remainder of the drop was caused by coins being lost or otherwise pulled from circulation. Yes wheat pennies are declining at a steady rate, but the rate is not as fast as it may appear.

A simpler view:
In 1996 you found approx. 40 wheats per $100 (0.4%)
In 2008 you are finding approx. 18 wheats per $100 (0.18%)
In 2008, because of the additional coins minted, you would have been expected to find 29.5 wheats per $100
Therefore between 1996 and 2008, the find rate dropped 11.5 wheats per $100 due to coins removed from circulation. A change in the find rate of approximately 1 wheat penny per $100 per year between 1996 and 2008 due to coins actually removed from circulation.

Again this is for Immy's location and method of searching as other areas will vary depending on many variables.

 

[jewelerdave]

It will be a sad day when we all get exited about finding a few pre 82 coppers and thats all there is to look for....thing is. its bound to happen.